• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

EastAtlwx said:
View attachment 1983 Latest euro (12z) sure wants to throwback some precipitation inland.. much farther north than previous runs.. also, UK is onto this idea.. Gfs showing its suppression bias.
Click to expand...

I'm perked with interest for the exact reasons you just mentioned. Can't wait to see EPS members in the morning along with, ukie,nav and other foreign guidance. Should see an uptick signal wise from ens members etc.

Kudos to the nav for last storm. Talk about a pleasant suprise in regards to performance.
 
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17.png
Moisture creeps north this run
 
To what are you referring...? What moisture?
Edit, I see that little blob over western NC. Is that what you are looking at?
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
That's alright ... we are only in the top of the second inning with this ballgame. It will start getting good in the 7th.
Click to expand...
i think tonight's euro run will be very interesting... the last three runs have increased precip shield farther inland...euro 1.png euro 2.png euro 3.png
 
It seems to me that the 850s are significantly warmer than they were at this point in advance of the big storm. Remember when the 0C 850 line was right along the SE US coast for several days worth of runs? Subsequently there was the NW trend, which brought the 850 0C line to near ATL. Looking at this Fri, 850s along the coast are +5 to +7 and the 0C line is already near or just N of ATL. So, if there were to be a NW trend of the precip again this time, wouldn't it be warmer than the last storm at 850 at least in N GA and nearby areas? So, my gut feel is that the areas hit by the last storm likely don't have the same potential with this one. It just doesn't look cold enough. Am I missing something? If so by all means, tell where I'm off.
 
Last edited:
GaWx said:
It seems to me that the 850s are significantly warmer than they were at this point in advance of the big storm. Remember when the 0C 850 line was right along the SE US coast for several days worth of runs? Subsequently there was the NW trend, which brought the 850 0C line to near ATL. Looking at this Fri, 850s along the coast are +5 to +7 and the 0C line is already near or just N of ATL. So, if there were to be a NW trend of the precip again this time, wouldn't it be warmer than the last storm at 850 at least in N GA and nearby areas? So, my gut feel is that the areas hit by the last storm likely don't have the same potential with this one. It just doesn't look cold enough. Am I missing something? If so by all means, tell where I'm off.
Click to expand...

You're right. In fact, earlier looking at the Euro from 12z, I had to check two data sources for 850s to make sure it wasn't a plotting error. Figured whatever happens from it to likely be rain for most.

Maybe the 500mb look with the energy (similar to last storm) and the jet streak Eric has alluded to has some a little over excited. Lets not forget the main wave that produced the majority of the Wintry weather started pretty far back in the Gulf from that system. This potential, whatever it is, doesn't even have much ensemble support, and leads me to think if anything, it'd be a late blooming fish storm.
 
Storm5 said:
We lost the ukmet this run. The 00z run took two steps back and has no system ...
Click to expand...

Losing the UKMET could be a large sign as it used (might still) have a tendency to over do low pressures in the Southeast. Not having one at all, should be a red flag this far out.
 
I didn't think the GEFS was that bad . Big arctic outbreak towards the end of the run m the southeast ridge tried To show up and stay but all signs point to that being brief or non existent
 
Arcc said:
Ugh I can't believe I'm saying this but due to its handle of the last storm you have to give it slightly more credence. The NAM at the end of its range would be a much different solution than the GFS is extrapolated out.
Click to expand...
I can't believe you said it either lol however you are right the energy diving south is MUCH further SW on the NAM vs the GFS
 
Storm5 said:
I didn't think the GEFS was that bad . Big arctic outbreak towards the end of the run m the southeast ridge tried To show up and stay but all signs point to that being brief or non existent
Click to expand...

I must admit to not liking that the last 3 GEFS runs have had a slight increase in the SE ridging with each run during the 11-15 day period vs the prior one but hopefully this trend is just a burp. It looks too Ninaish too early vs analogs. This is the type of thing I'd expect to see more in the last half of Jan and in Feb, when a Niña tends to be ugliest for the SE, than late this month when QBO/ENSO/-AO analogs say cold returns to the SE and continues into early Jan.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top