Severe Severe Threat Jan 11-13 2023

[Snow_chaser]

Pushing 70° and air feels soupy here

 

[vsublazer]

This is a first for Cobb County Georgia. This was just received from the school district.

 

[Darklordsuperstorm]

Sumter County storm now has a TDS. It's down.

 

[Snow_chaser]

View attachment 129950

This is a first for Cobb County Georgia. This was just received from the school district.

Yea don’t like the thinking that any nasty storms may get here in the heart of school dismissal

 

[bouncycorn]

 

[Arcc]

Highly impressive couplet near Eutaw.

 

[bouncycorn]

Is there a CAPE forecasting model similar to NAM12k?

All of the models forecast CAPE.

 

[weatherfide]

Highly impressive couplet near Eutaw.

Yes, that's the one I've been watching. It has had a confirmed tornado on the ground. According the HRRR and Bouncycorn's model, that thing could sustain rotation and updrafts all the way to Sandy Springs, GA.

 

[bouncycorn]

Yes, that's the one I've been watching. It has had a confirmed tornado on the ground. According the HRRR and Bouncycorn's model, that thing could sustain rotation and updrafts all the way to Sandy Springs, GA.

Very likely a long track quasi-supercell with tornadoes. It is essentially working with it's own environment.

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

Looks like a TDS on CC for the eutaw storm

 

[bingcrosbyb]

Ugly just south of Tuscaloosa

 

[bigstick10]

As James Spann would say "the first storms of the day tell you something" this may be long day...

Yet he played all of this down on his morning vid>????

 

[weatherfide]

Very likely a long track quasi-supercell with tornadoes. It is essentially working with it's own environment.

It has a buddy to the south, now. Probably a couple more forming even further south.

 

[bigstick10]

Yet FFC just took SEVERE out of their forecast? What is it guys???

THIS AFTERNOON
Showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 60s. Temperature falling into the lower 60s. Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent

 

[bouncycorn]

Yet FFC just took SEVERE out of their forecast? What is it guys???

THIS AFTERNOON
Showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 60s. Temperature falling into the lower 60s. Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent

Those grids are highly automated. Read the forecast discussion and you'll see that the severe risk has only increased.

 

[bigstick10]

Those grids are highly automated. Read the forecast discussion and you'll see that the severe risk has only increased.

I know but why does that go out to the public it lets people think, Hey we are OK, and we probably will be , but still not a good look.

 

[BullCityWx]

Extremely unimpressive so far

I’ll let the folks in Winston County that got trapped in debris know that’s how you feel

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

May be time to pay attention.. you can see where I'm at?

 

[bouncycorn]

May be time to pay attention.. you can see where I'm at?
View attachment 129955

Go chase that thing.. i'll be waiting for it in West GA.

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

Go chase that thing.. i'll be waiting for it in West GA.

I've got a great vantage point to my E - SE when it's a bit closer I'll head there. Take about 4-5 min to get there

 

[BullCityWx]

I've got a great vantage point to my E - SE when it's a bit closer I'll head there. Take about 4-5 min to get there

Where are you in relation to campus? My wife knows the area - she went to montevallo.

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

TDS headed towards me

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

Where are you in relation to campus? My wife knows the area - she went to montevallo.

I'm approximately 5 mi West Northwest of the campus at University of Montevallo

 

[BullCityWx]

I'm approximately 5 mi West Northwest of the campus at University of Montevallo

10-4. stay safe down there, looks like a bad one.

 

[DadOfJax]

I’ll let the folks in Winston County that got trapped in debris know that’s how you feel

Awesome, thanks.

 

[cyclogent]

wind is impressive with this line- gusted to 50+ briefly, and had a good pelting of pea-sized hail. lot of lightning, too.

 

[Weatherlover92]

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 52

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

www.spc.noaa.gov

 

[Stevo24]

Here lately one thing is certain. It’s almost guaranteed There will be a Tornado warning in or around my area of Anderson SC. Seems to happen multiple times a year now.

 

[SASQUATCH]

lots of hail with these stronger storms.

 

[Arcc]

Debris not showing up as well, but little doubt looking at couplet and reflectivity, it’s still on the ground. Very nice BWER.

 

[tractor girl]

All of the models forecast CAPE.

Thank you for answering a probably dumb question. I learned how to read CAPE in Skew-T's after your reply. This guide was informative: https://www.tornadotitans.com/how-to-read-skew-ts-sbcape-mlcape-mucape/

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

PDS with that bibb co strom just outside of brent

 

[malak05]

The nasty tornado south of Birmingham seems to be taking more of a NE track now compared to a ENE

 

[jrips27]

 

[Snowfan]

 

[malak05]

That thing is strong

 

[Darklordsuperstorm]

Debris ball on reflectivity and also a TDS

 

[Snowfan]

 

[Arcc]

Selma needs to really start to take that storm seriously.

 

[tempo47]

Seems like majority of the severe stuff has been I-20 south so far? Wonder if that trend will continue