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Tropical Hurricane Nicole

I was waiting for 3k NAM stupid run, it never disappoints lol

nam3km_ir_seus_39.png
 
Now a tropical storm.
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicole Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
1000 AM EST Tue Nov 08 2022

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 72.7W
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM NE OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES
Click to expand...
 
Just got the hurricane warning alert on my phone. I live on the Intracoastal in the Boynton Beach area. This is the first real threat we have had down here since I got here a couple of years ago.
 
Shaggy said:
That's a pretty strong high to its north so the gradient should help that windfield stay large
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This is very true, especially with the wide circulation on the northern side. With the near full moon, there’s definitely going to be some issues with coastal flooding and beach erosion along much of the coastline… really the expanse of those effects will be much more similar to a nor’easter
 
Snowlove33 said:
Is it possible that this storm can be stronger than advertised with it being so huge?
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It’s possible, but it’s also possible that the huge size can hinder strengthening. Ike in 2008 saw pressures of a high end cat 4, but never got higher than 110mph because the energy was so spread out
 
Looks like a severe threat for some of us now for Friday. Cape up to 500-1000 for many in NC and SC SE of I-85.
 
...NICOLE STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 73.3W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM NE OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES
Click to expand...
60/992.
 
From KFFC-Atlanta



.LONG TERM...
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 229 PM EST Tue Nov 8 2022

By the beginning of the long term on Thursday morning Tropical Storm
Nicole is expected to be over eastern FL or just making landfall on
the east FL coastline. Nicole is then expected to move
northwestward and then take a northeast turn once reaching the big
bend of FL. From our last update, the track has shifted with the
cone going through southern and east central GA overnight
Thursday into Friday morning. Impacts will be felt outside of the
cone though, and the cone represents where the storm will fall 2/3
of the time and the track may shift as time goes on.

Winds are expected to gust up to 40 mph Thursday into Friday. Winds
are then expected to taper off into the weekend. Our rainfall
totals have been increased a bit and thus areas could see values
from 1"-3" but with bands coming into the area locally higher
amounts could be possible.

Following this, Nicole is expected to move east of our area as a
front moves into our area and then sweeping Nicole out of our area.
Overall, temps will be on the decline throughout the week especially
into the weekend with high temps maxing out in the 45-55 degree
range across Georgia. PoPs are also expected to decrease into the
weekend.

Hernandez
 
HugeSnowStick said:
From KFFC-Atlanta



.LONG TERM...
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 229 PM EST Tue Nov 8 2022

By the beginning of the long term on Thursday morning Tropical Storm
Nicole is expected to be over eastern FL or just making landfall on
the east FL coastline. Nicole is then expected to move
northwestward and then take a northeast turn once reaching the big
bend of FL. From our last update, the track has shifted with the
cone going through southern and east central GA overnight
Thursday into Friday morning. Impacts will be felt outside of the
cone though, and the cone represents where the storm will fall 2/3
of the time and the track may shift as time goes on.

Winds are expected to gust up to 40 mph Thursday into Friday. Winds
are then expected to taper off into the weekend. Our rainfall
totals have been increased a bit and thus areas could see values
from 1"-3" but with bands coming into the area locally higher
amounts could be possible.

Following this, Nicole is expected to move east of our area as a
front moves into our area and then sweeping Nicole out of our area.
Overall, temps will be on the decline throughout the week especially
into the weekend with high temps maxing out in the 45-55 degree
range across Georgia. PoPs are also expected to decrease into the
weekend.

Hernandez
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As dry as it has been in North Georgia, we could absorb the rainfall from four Nicole's without incurring a flooding danger. I hope the path drifts west a tad bit more, though. The 12z hurricane models have a sharp turn to the northeast, taking the best rains with it. Those eastern tracks worry me.
 
Early on i thought a sharp ENE recurve would take it too far east of me but now its slam up the west side of the apps and my totals went from 2.25 inches now down to under .50 inches.
 
Nicole is looking much more like a tropical system now. Hope Florida is prepared and not being lax on this threat. Also the severe threat for NC can’t be diminished this could be a nighttime threat for damaging winds and tornadoes .. the ingredients are all there
 
metwannabe said:
Looking better this morning, also now kinda the compact little storm with slight S of due west movement. Good thing it should run out of time to do much strengthening.

recon_NOAA3-1217A-NICOLE.png
Click to expand...
Yeah. I've been up all night and it catered around 2am and then finally retired storms over the center. For a second I thought it was gonna lose strength but it roared back this morning
 
Haven’t been paying much attention to what models show with the storm as it moves inland, but I just saw FFC increased wind gusts across their area. Showing up to 50-60 mph maximum wind gusts as far north as Macon now. It feels a bit aggressive to me though, but who knows.CA573A69-8FEE-474A-B609-5CE6B81938E7.png
 
Shaggy said:
Most of central and eastern NC with a 5% zone for tornado threat on Friday now.
Click to expand...

From their latest disco

Rich low-level moisture, characterized by at least upper 60s surface
dewpoints, is expected to spread inland ahead of the surface low
from the central Carolinas into southern portions of the
Mid-Atlantic through Friday evening. Strong low-level flow
associated with a 45-55+ kt southerly low-level jet will be present
over these regions as well. Corresponding enlargement of low-level
hodographs is anticipated, with effective SRH likely reaching at
least 200-300 m2/s2. Modest diurnal heating of the moist low-level
airmass should support the development of weak instability, with
MLCAPE reaching up to around 500 J/kg. Current expectations are for
low-topped supercells capable of producing both tornadoes and
isolated damaging winds to spread gradually northward through the
day from the Carolinas into southern/central VA and vicinity.
 
Already seeing the effects of that persistent east fetch, only 2 more days of it.....

pamn7_hg.png


New Bern showing no real outgoing tide, should be several feet of water over the wall there before its all said and done....

bern7_hg.png
 
Waves of heavy showers since probably 10 am. Wind is whipping pretty good already and its causing sheets at times even with just decent showers so far.
 
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
243 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 241 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

Tropical Storm Nicole''s outer bands are beginning to push across
the forecast area this afternoon and impacts are expected to
increase through the night and into Friday. With the most recent
outer band, multiple ASOS sites are recording wind gusts up to
30-40mph across metro ATL and central Georgia, expecting this
trend to continue. In addition, with heavier rain bands beginning
to move into the CWA, expecting an increase in down trees and
powerlines through this evening as grounds become more saturated.
No major changes in QPF at this time, with more persistent
rainfall expected to overspread the area by this evening, through
the overnight hours. This widespread rainfall will persist through
Friday morning before gradually ending from SW to NE through
Friday afternoon, as the remnants of Nicole quickly eject NE.
Currently forecasting majority of north and central Georgia to see
around 1.5-2.0", with locally higher amounts up to 3.0" across
far central Georgia and then the NE Georgia mountains. Thankfully,
given dry antecedent conditions, not anticipating widespread
significant flash flooding issues, though localized issues of
street flooding and drainage problems could arise, particularly
where the locally higher amounts occur with rain bands that setup
over the area. Main threats for the rest of today and through
tonight will be damaging wind gusts causing multiple downed trees
and powerlines, localized flash flooding, and small chance of a
spin-up tropical tornado.
 
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