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Tropical Hurricane Nicole

Impressive on the GFS for a storm coming from the east in November.

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deltadog03 said:
GFS runs what looks like a cat 1 cane through here. EURO looks like messy TS. looks like there could be some much beneficial rains to the SE though.
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Worried about a sharp turnaround and ejection to the east with that front swinging in. Lower southeast coast is good but SC and NC is a little more uncertain in my very unprofessional opinion
 
Southwestern Atlantic:
An area of low pressure located more than 300 miles north of Puerto
Rico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. This system is forecast to move generally
northwestward over the southwestern Atlantic where environmental
conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a
subtropical or tropical storm is likely to form in the next day or
so. The system is then forecast to turn westward or
west-southwestward over the southwestern Atlantic by the middle
part of this week where additional development is possible.

Regardless of development, there is an increasing risk of coastal
flooding, tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf,
and beach erosion along much of the southeastern United States
coast, the Florida east coast, and portions of the central and
northwestern Bahamas beginning in the early to middle part of this
week. Interests in those areas should continue to monitor the
progress of this system as tropical storm, hurricane, and storm
surge watches could be required for a portion of these areas by
early Monday. Additional information on this system, including
gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service and in products from your local weather
office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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80/90 as of 8 PM.
 
NHC mentions possibility of reaching hurricane strength before landfall, although official forecast does not show that just yet. Should be a long duration onshore, coastal flood/erosion event for SE as well as a good soaker for portions of the SE

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SD said:
Going to be a fascinating watch over the next 48 hours from a weather nerd perspective as it sheds the front and becomes tropical. It could make a run at a formidable system if it can go tropical quickly
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What do you think the ceiling is?
 
deltadog03 said:
What do you think the ceiling is?
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980-985. Just not sure how quickly it's going to shed the non tropical characteristics and go to town. If the system were an independent tropical system and an independent upper low we could end up with a Kate 1985 scenario but I don't think we get that here
 
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SD said:
980-985. Just not sure how quickly it's going to shed the non tropical characteristics and go to town. If the system were an independent tropical system and an independent upper low we could end up with a Kate 1985 scenario but I don't think we get that here
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I would agree with that. Maybe a 70-80 mph system
 
Euro,Ukmet,GFS all paint 1.7-2.0 qpf here for MBY. Euro an ukmet right on top of each other with inland track. GFS within 75 miles , but lining up.
 
Hurricane watches up and probably get updated to warnings later today. Looking more and more tropical, nice little burst of convection right over the center and it accelerates quickly after lf getting out of here by Saturday morning

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metwannabe said:
Hurricane watches up and probably get updated to warnings later today. Looking more and more tropical, nice little burst of convection right over the center and it accelerates quickly after lf getting out of here by Saturday morning

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That is a very wide field to the north of the center. If that continues you would be seeing TS force winds to about Myrtle Beach… even as it’s making landfall in central Florida
 
Chazwin said:
That is a very wide field to the north of the center. If that continues you would be seeing TS force winds to about Myrtle Beach… even as it’s making landfall in central Florida
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I wonder if we will see that taper off as it consolidates more and becomes full on tropical, however, it's still going to be extremely breezy along the coast thanks to pressure gradient anyway.
 
metwannabe said:
I wonder if we will see that taper off as it consolidates more and becomes full on tropical, however, it's still going to be extremely breezy along the coast thanks to pressure gradient anyway.
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I would expect it to shrink some, but I also expect that it will be making its transition to extra-tropical by the time it’s making landfall
 
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