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Ukraine

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NCSNOW said:
By driving Russia into an alliance with the CCP, they will survive the economic sanctions. China will prop them up, back door their oil etc. Its China we best be ready to deal with. This includes the Mitch McConnel's , Nancy Pelosi's of the world as well as the vast majority of Business's and us as consumers throughout America.
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Absolutely......Neither Putin or Xi give 2 hoots about any sanctions. It's too late now. Europe has itself one big cluster and we had best stay clear of it. I say that as someone who has seen enough of fruitless wars and now has a kid who will have to fight if we do something stupid.

China is still a problem we can and better do something about
 
NCSNOW said:
By driving Russia into an alliance with the CCP, they will survive the economic sanctions. China will prop them up, back door their oil etc. Its China we best be ready to deal with. This includes the Mitch McConnel's , Nancy Pelosi's of the world as well as the vast majority of Business's and us as consumers throughout America.
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I agree. This will be over in a few days. I hope we have learned a lesson and dont repeat it with Taiwan. Send them all the latest anti-ship and aircraft missiles.
 
Sandbar said:
Sanctions of any kind will do little if anything. Russians are used to sanctions. Putin attacked now because the world is weakened, mainly the United States. Not a political post just a fact. Taiwan is staring at its likely future as well. China is where you had best keep your eyes trained......
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? agreed I think all realized just how weak the United States is when crimea was annexed years ago. That’s when the seed was planted.
 
I dont think some people realize this. We are partially dependent on Russia for our energy.

"Across 2021 the US imported between 12 million as 26 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum from Russia every month. In November 2021, the most recent figures on record, the Energy Information Agency reports that the US took 17.8 million barrels."
 
BirdManDoomW said:
? agreed I think all realized just how weak the United States is when crimea was annexed years ago. That’s when the seed was planted.
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Yes, we gave Ukraine meaningless guarantees. But i also think this is being blown up into a much bigger deal than it should be. I also think it will be a very short battle.
 
While we hear alot of tough talk Europe is going to accept what happens. They have no choice. I hear people say if russia cuts off all energy to europe we can make up the difference. Theoretically we can, but that will take years. There is no fleet of empty tankers waiting to go to europe, thay have to be built. And, Europe doesnt have the terminal facilities to take them in any case. As NCSNOW said, this is over, we best worry about Taiwan now.
 
Philstorm91 said:
Which aren't going to do us any good if Russia succeeds at installing a pro Russian Ukrainian government and has them trade exclusively with Russia friendly countries.
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That i disagree with. Russia needs to trade with the west and the west is dependent on them. This is the big difference between now and WW2. Britain and France could declare war on Germany in 1939 because Hitler was autarkic.
 
Philstorm91 said:
Which aren't going to do us any good if Russia succeeds at installing a pro Russian Ukrainian government and has them trade exclusively with Russia friendly countries.
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Too late for that.......I'm no Romney fan but he was correct when he warned of Russia back in 2012 and was blasted for it. The chickens are coming home to roost, I just hope at some point we figure out that Russia and China have bad intensions. When I say "we" Im not just referring to our government. Our citizens need to understand this as well
 
lexxnchloe said:
That i disagree with. Russia needs to trade with the west and the west is dependent on them. This is the big difference between now and WW2. Britain and France could declare war on Germany in 1939 because Hitler was autarkic.
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No, I know Russia is down for trading with whomever. I'm talking about in the context of full bore sanctions against the Russian economy. A lot of countries aren't going to follow the sanctions, but some will. As far as trade goes, Russia will probably amp up their trade with countries not taking a sanctioning stance to survive the economic fallout better. Just my thoughts, I'm not a geopolitical expert.
 
lexxnchloe said:
They have the winning hand here and all this tough talk isnt going to do anything.
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The Ukrainian forces are currently giving Russia a very hard time....it will not be over in a few days, or even a few weeks, in fact there is a lot of places where the Ukrainian forces stopped Russian forces and held the line.....there are now lots of pictures of downed and dead Russian tanks/copters etc.....the Ukrainian forces are giving as good as they are getting.....in the meantime Russian companies will go broke, so will all the big oligarchs and pressure on Putin to fix it will grow.

There are dozens of Russian companies that lost over half their total value last night, and it only stopped because they closed the market, in reality they probably would be down 75-90% of their value in ONE NIGHT, add to that the Ruble is about worthless all thanks to Putin attacking the Ukraine and to gain what?

Ultimately he gains nothing, even if Russia takes over Ukraine they would have to stay there forever dealing with a hostile populace and guerilla type actions. It would be Afghanistan all over again....so the reality is Putin is spending billions of worthless Rubles invading a country Russia will pay a heavy price to take, and then have to spend tons of money to keep it because the second the Russian military leaves the people will kick out whatever puppet Putin leaves behind and immediately request membership into the EU/NATO....
 
Downeastnc said:
The Ukrainian forces are currently giving Russia a very hard time....it will not be over in a few days, or even a few weeks, in fact there is a lot of places where the Ukrainian forces stopped Russian forces and held the line.....there are now lots of pictures of downed and dead Russian tanks/copters etc.....the Ukrainian forces are giving as good as they are getting.....in the meantime Russian companies will go broke, so will all the big oligarchs and pressure on Putin to fix it will grow.

There are dozens of Russian companies that lost over half their total value last night, and it only stopped because they closed the market, in reality they probably would be down 75-90% of their value in ONE NIGHT, add to that the Ruble is about worthless all thanks to Putin attacking the Ukraine and to gain what?

Ultimately he gains nothing, even if Russia takes over Ukraine they would have to stay there forever dealing with a hostile populace and guerilla type actions. It would be Afghanistan all over again....so the reality is Putin is spending billions of worthless Rubles invading a country Russia will pay a heavy price to take, and then have to spend tons of money to keep it because the second the Russian military leaves the people will kick out whatever puppet Putin leaves behind and immediately request membership into the EU/NATO....
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We will see. I think this will be like our invasion of Iraq. It will go very quickly. As far afterward Europe needs Russia and this will be forgotten very soon. Russia is very good at installing compliant govts. Poland and East Germany were eventually free but it took 45 years.
 
I've read that harsh sanctions enacted by US and Europe allies combined would negatively effect Russia GDP by 15-20%. Previous sanctions were for deterrence, while these would be punitive.

Russia doesn't want a unifed West. If the US and Europe amongst themselves are divided, that helps Russia. They also don't want the previously mentioned sanctions.

For that reason, we should consider that Russia could benefit in publicizing information trying to convince us that heavy sanctions aren't worth it, while also trying to drive a wedge between us and our allies.
 
lexxnchloe said:
We will see. I think this will be like our invasion of Iraq. It will go very quickly. As far afterward Europe needs Russia and this will be forgotten very soon. Russia is very good at installing compliant govts. Poland and East Germany were eventually free but it took 45 years.
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I doubt it will be like Iraq. The amount of smuggled western weapons that has been pouring into Ukraine and will likely just keep increasing will be a huge thorn in Russia’s side for a long time.

Wouldn’t surprise me at all if western spec op teams aren’t secretly working or will be working in Ukraine either.
 
lexxnchloe said:
Ukraine is going to lose very quickly.
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I don't think so. Ukraine forces are fighting for their lives now. If they roll over and let Russia in, they will all be sent to torture and ultimately, death. No reason not to fight as hard as possible, to the death! Russians are not fighting with this resolve, at all. The defensive Ukraine has the advantage, unless nukes rain down on them. Then it's over. I bet we see that in the end.
 
Russian TV claims that any Ukrainian that surrenders without a fight will be granted amnesty. Russia did something similar in helping Assad fight Syrian rebels. It makes no sense to alienate a nearby population by giving no quarter, if the claims of going easy on surrendering Ukrainian soldiers is true.
 
lexxnchloe said:
We will see. I think this will be like our invasion of Iraq. It will go very quickly. As far afterward Europe needs Russia and this will be forgotten very soon. Russia is very good at installing compliant govts. Poland and East Germany were eventually free but it took 45 years.
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This wont go quickly. It will be bloody and nasty......
 
Russia is trying to compete at the same level as the United States and they just are capable from an economic standpoint or military standpoint. The only pull is the fact that they have a nuclear arsenal that is basically the last resort. Their economy is getting crushed from a pointless invasion of a country that is standing toe to toe with them with way less. Not a very good look at all. Russia needs the west way more than the west needs Russia.
 
weatherfide said:
I don't think so. Ukraine forces are fighting for their lives now. If they roll over and let Russia in, they will all be sent to torture and ultimately, death. No reason not to fight as hard as possible, to the death! Russians are not fighting with this resolve, at all. The defensive Ukraine has the advantage, unless nukes rain down on them. Then it's over. I bet we see that in the end.
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We will see. Personally i think it ends fast. In the meantime China is talking about Taiwan
news.yahoo.com

China says Taiwan is 'not Ukraine' as island raises alert level

BEIJING/TAIPEI (Reuters) -Taiwan is "not Ukraine" and has always been an inalienable part of China, China's foreign ministry said on Wednesday, as Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen called for the island to beef up vigilance on military activities in response to the crisis. The comments come after...
news.yahoo.com news.yahoo.com

"BEIJING/TAIPEI (Reuters) -Taiwan is "not Ukraine" and has always been an inalienable part of China, China's foreign ministry said on Wednesday". Its time now to arm Taiwan.
 
YetAnotherRDUGuy said:
I've read that harsh sanctions enacted by US and Europe allies combined would negatively effect Russia GDP by 15-20%. Previous sanctions were for deterrence, while these would be punitive.

Russia doesn't want a unifed West. If the US and Europe amongst themselves are divided, that helps Russia. They also don't want the previously mentioned sanctions.

For that reason, we should consider that Russia could benefit in publicizing information trying to convince us that heavy sanctions aren't worth it, while also trying to drive a wedge between us and our allies.
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Well invading Ukraine is doing just that.....and these sanctions are going to literally destroy the Russian economy, people in Russia woke up today to worthless currency ( 85 Ruble equal 1 US dollar ) and companies that lost half their value.
 
Arcc said:
I doubt it will be like Iraq. The amount of smuggled western weapons that has been pouring into Ukraine and will likely just keep increasing will be a huge thorn in Russia’s side for a long time.

Wouldn’t surprise me at all if western spec op teams aren’t secretly working or will be working in Ukraine either.
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Those Javelins and Stingers getting results.....this is top line Russian attack choppers and by most reports they have lost a bunch of them so far.

 
I would be wary of initial media reports. Back when we invaded Iraq the media was unanimous in saying we would suffer thousands of dead. We didnt. We did suffer many losses in the occupation. If we and the west were really serious here we could do one thing immediately. Halt all russian oil and NG exports to America and Europe. Lets get real here. As Russia takes part of Ukraine and we huff and puff we are at the same time financing the Russian invasion by buying their oil and natural gas. As long as we and europe does that all the tough talk is the height of hypocrisy.
 
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