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Ukraine

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Yeah very difficult to discuss war without discussing politics, try to keep it from escalating to purely political comments as it is starting to drift towards and keep it on topic. I think questioning an admins reaction to tensions is fair personally, but it should be done without the political bitterness that we see so often in today's conversations.
 
Philstorm91 said:
If Russia's leadership wants to invade Ukraine, there's really not much the US or NATO can do to effectively stop it IMO, based on geography and current geopolitics. Crippling sanctions cut both ways. Europe doesn't want to lose access to cheap gas, for example. Russia shares a long border with Ukraine and knows that area well from the old Soviet Union days. If the US tried to get involved to physically put a stop to an invasion, they would have to cross a hostile Atlantic Ocean to reinforce their forces in Europe, whereas Russia is right next door to move military hardware troops, planes, missiles, etc to. Short of a nuclear exchange, I honestly don't see how the US is supposed to "stop Putin" here. Maybe I'm missing something?
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We do keep the ground hardware in Europe for this very scenario. You just have to trust me, we spent a lot of money on it. Highly capable but would require a significant surge of US men and women to operate.

We also have ability to establish and operate a no fly over Ukraine within 72hrs if we wanted to, conventionally.
 
You can't deny the power of Russia in this conflict would be greatly reduced if the sanctions had remained in place over Nordstream 2 pipeline..our change in politics ie policy, empowered and emboldened russia to become agressive...Ukraine's power over the oil supply is gone without sanctions.......Biden could re-implement the sanctions visa a change in his politics which would greatly decrease the chance for war....it is politics
 
GaWx said:
The #1 European need for Russian energy is natural gas rather than oil. The US was near record high NG production as recently as December. So, in essence, the US has been pumping NG as hard as ever. Check out the graph and table here showing this:

U.S. Dry Natural Gas Production (Million Cubic Feet)

www.eia.gov

And then from here:

US gas production drop persists, tightening supply and increasing call on storage

Following a precipitous drop in US natural gas production earlier this month, output has continued to stumble in late January, tightening the domestic market balance just as colder weather arrives. Wi
www.spglobal.com www.spglobal.com


“After approaching a prior record high at over 96.3 Bcf/d in late December, US gas production has tumbled since the start of the new year, falling by over 4 Bcf/d to average just 92.2 Bcf/d in January.”

The main reason it fell 4.1 bcf/day in January from December is because January was so much colder than Dec and it lead to “freeze-offs” largely in the Permian Basin:

Texas natural gas prices drift lower, despite Permian Basin production freeze-offs

Forecasts calling for warmer weather and weaker gas demand across Texas appear to be easing concern in the spot gas markets over a potential supply crunch resulting from a recent drop in Permian Basin
www.spglobal.com www.spglobal.com

That cold wx related drop in production is obviously temporary and production is expected to get back to near record levels. March production per day should be significantly higher than January based on much warmer weather, especially in the Permian Basin. I’m not sure where Feb will be because of the strong cold about to hit there.


There has been a dramatic increase in LNG exports to Europe from the US due to higher European needs:

www.reuters.com

Europe remains top destination for U.S. LNG for the third month

Europe's call for U.S. liquefied natural gas continues to run hot in February and is poised to remain the top destination for U.S. shipments for the third month in a row, according to mid-month Refinitiv vessel tracking data on Tuesday.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com

US LNG exports are at record highs and these will continue rising. The US is in a position to help Europe more through further increases in LNG exports should Russia cut off what they supply Europe.
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Larry,
We may be parsing words ... my point is that the dude is a nut but he understands money ... Russia wants and needs to sell petroleum ... ... it's about the only thing they have that can go to market ... that's why they so badly want a true warm water port via Ukraine ... and they absolutely want to sell their crude ... but they can't unless a certain price level is reached ... so make the nutcase understand what he understands ... money ... his economy would deflate so fast (as it was doing) if we were to turn on and keep on the spigot ... war doesn't have to be fought or won with bullets and tanks ... another reason that crazy needs oil & gas revenue is for his tanks and bullets ...
2¢
 
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While the rest of the free world was arguing over mask and vaccination mandates for the last two years, Putin was plotting one of the biggest takeovers in modern history. There’s a lot I can say here but I’ll try to keep my inner Jessy at bay.
 
The "separatist" do not control much of the Donbas region's, and those area are still majority Ukrainians who want to stay in the Ukraine according to what little polling there is. Russia has spent 8 years setting this up to counter any attempt to allow Ukraine into NATO.....

I still cant fathom Putin going into Ukraine outside of the Donbas region, and especially pushing attacks towards Kiev.....at that point things get a lot more dicey.
 
WeatherNC said:
One has to wonder if this was part of a broader concession to limit further conflict. US and Russia with China at the table, most other major powers at this stage too.
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Well straight from the hoarses mouth as he inserted foot a couple weeks ago.

"It's one thing if it's a minor incursion and we [NATO] end up having to fight about what to do and not to do,"
 
Downeastnc said:
The "separatist" do not control much of the Donbas region's, and those area are still majority Ukrainians who want to stay in the Ukraine according to what little polling there is. Russia has spent 8 years setting this up to counter any attempt to allow Ukraine into NATO.....

I still cant fathom Putin going into Ukraine outside of the Donbas region, and especially pushing attacks towards Kiev.....at that point things get a lot more dicey.
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Putin has already won without the need to invade at all. If i understand the situation the 2 provinces saying they are russian means this is over. I have no doubt behibd the scenes Ukraine is being pressured by us and europe to please for the love of God let Putin get what he wants.
 
lexxnchloe said:
Putin has already won without the need to invade at all. If i understand the situation the 2 provinces saying they are russian means this is over. I have no doubt behibd the scenes Ukraine is being pressured by us and europe to please for the love of God let Putin get what he wants.
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Russia didn’t do all this to recognize two tiny breakaway provinces in eastern Ukraine.
 
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