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Wintry Valentines Weekend Potential ?

06z EPS is kinda meh, seems like the 0z eps had more coastal precip inland where as the 06z is trying focus on the upper energy precip more (reminder 06 only goes out to 144 so might have been better on exit?) Anyway we all know that whatever the models are showing now will not verify this weekend but it seems we are in deja vu land again. Will we finally get some type of phase bomb (doubt it), will the coastal be the main player closer to the coast, will the coastal basically be a big nothing burger and then the upper level energy hit the area with a light event? Who knows, I don't know if models are worse or the pattern is this difficult but seems we used to have some idea once we had a threat under 6-7 days

Any who here it the 06 eps again through 144

1644818400-D1YciLA0UDY.png

1644818400-xPJ3VxIJc6w.png
 
SD said:
Euro is getting better imoView attachment 113065
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No doubt about it, the Euro/GFS/UKMET are all in the ballpark for showing the 00z GFS solution. If things would trend our way, for once this winter, we have that opportunity but the next couple days will reveal what type of threat this is, if any. Also, fwiw I would not be looking to the ensembles to lead the way with this type of complex phasing situation where higher model resolution would be key.
 
KATL:

The main focus has
been on the weekend where models have had quite a bit of
discrepancy and run-to-run inconsistency on how amplified the
upper trough gets over the region and amount of possible enhanced
moisture gets phased in. For this set of runs, the GFS
deterministic run is quite robust with even cutting off the upper
trough and allowing for significant snow potential enhanced with
a deformation axis by Sunday/Sunday night.
 
Hypsometric said:
No doubt about it, the Euro/GFS/UKMET are all in the ballpark for showing the 00z GFS solution. If things would trend our way, for once this winter, we have that opportunity but the next couple days will reveal what type of threat this is, if any. Also, fwiw I would not be looking to the ensembles to lead the way with this type of complex phasing situation where higher model resolution would be key.
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Yeah I'd expect the ens to merge the individual waves into just a full latitude positive tilt dud
 
Rain Cold said:
Upper trough has to phase in or it's likely going to be mostly rain.
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It's practically 1 step from a phase or is very close to one. Really a decent look that I don't want to lose or see go too far SW like a lot have this season. Hopefully we see some nice runs with the 12Z suite, especially the euro. We want to see some ens on both the GFS and Euro pick up on this too.
 
Need that northern wave to be quicker. Otherwise, weak and warm (dry or rain). We seem to be having difficulty with timing this year. We've seen the southern stream lag back a few times, so maybe it can hold up a little bit here and allow for better timing. The ICON looked closer to me.gfs_z500_vort_us_23.png
 
Rain Cold said:
Need that northern wave to be quicker. Otherwise, weak and warm (dry or rain). We seem to be having difficulty with timing this year. We've seen the southern stream lag back a few times, so maybe it can hold up a little bit here and allow for better timing. The ICON looked closer to me.View attachment 113079
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Sucks to have to thread the needle with giant thread! This is where the -NAO would help exponentially!
 
Been watching the euro and gfs for a couple days , showed some snow for central Alabama , but now it looks like a no go. Still. A wild ride from the end results as we have seen many times this winter. I just want a dusting at least lol.
 
Still have a pretty wide gap in the 12z runs today. On one hand you have the icon that's stronger with the lead wave and faster with the phase, then you have the cmc that's weak with the lead wave but strong with the trailer, then the gfs is waffling around but trending faster with the trailer and shearing out the lead wave and finally the euro which was trending well but the 12z shifted the southern end of the trough north and connected it to the parent trough more.
 
SD said:
Still have a pretty wide gap in the 12z runs today. On one hand you have the icon that's stronger with the lead wave and faster with the phase, then you have the cmc that's weak with the lead wave but strong with the trailer, then the gfs is waffling around but trending faster with the trailer and shearing out the lead wave and finally the euro which was trending well but the 12z shifted the southern end of the trough north and connected it to the parent trough more.
Click to expand...
english? #wefail?
 
The 18Z ICON looks worse than the improved 12Z run. Let’s see whether or not the HH GFS will go back in the good direction.
 
Not liking 18Z GFS so far (hour 60) as it looks more like the sucky 12Z GFS than the yummy 0Z.
 
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