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Misc 2021-22 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

YetAnotherRDUGuy said:
???️ ⁉️
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Tbh there’s some psychology going on too. We are all boxed into a county and we compare to the rest . Notice people in southern guilford / northern Randolph on here complaining they don’t get as much snow and mix more ? It’s a psychology thing. Based solely on climo obviously your more south and east parts of the county will fair worse than the more north and west parts .
 
GaWx said:
Some moderation to this incredible pattern would be fully expected. Even that would be a pattern change of sorts. However, I’m still not seeing anything resembling a mild pattern on anything. Included in this idea are the Euro weeklies, which still are cold dominated through Feb 12th.
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GA the man !
 
I'll put this here instead of one of the event threads. Y'all, I know that most of you are in NC/SC, but please post maps that include MS and AL. Even if we aren't in play for snow, we like to see what kind of icy mess might descend upon us. I'm seeing lots of eastern corners of AL with pink ice patches on maps that are posted and wondering..."is that ish coming for me?" Thanks for your consideration and may we all see a flake or two over the next 2 weeks.
 
mjscott30 said:
I'll put this here instead of one of the event threads. Y'all, I know that most of you are in NC/SC, but please post maps that include MS and AL. Even if we aren't in play for snow, we like to see what kind of icy mess might descend upon us. I'm seeing lots of eastern corners of AL with pink ice patches on maps that are posted and wondering..."is that ish coming for me?" Thanks for your consideration and may we all see a flake or two over the next 2 weeks.
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Hey, accu35 is the Alabama model poster . Help him post better quality images and you got your help.
 
mjscott30 said:
I'll put this here instead of one of the event threads. Y'all, I know that most of you are in NC/SC, but please post maps that include MS and AL. Even if we aren't in play for snow, we like to see what kind of icy mess might descend upon us. I'm seeing lots of eastern corners of AL with pink ice patches on maps that are posted and wondering..."is that ish coming for me?" Thanks for your consideration and may we all see a flake or two over the next 2 weeks.
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This is true
 
Lickwx said:
Tbh there’s some psychology going on too. We are all boxed into a county and we compare to the rest . Notice people in southern guilford / northern Randolph on here complaining they don’t get as much snow and mix more ? It’s a psychology thing. Based solely on climo obviously your more south and east parts of the county will fair worse than the more north and west parts .
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I actually agree that psych is a slight factor, and one I heavily leaned towards when I 1st moved here. Also it's a large county by area.

But just from looking at numerous accumulation maps over the years, you start to see a clear pattern showing up repeatedly. I think there's more spread between S and E Wake and Durham/Orange than there is between other locations. As CR alluded to, there's a pattern where the accum line or precip type line tends to turn sharply NE after going ENE from the W across the state. I'm not sure if it's as significant as from S Guilford to Forsyth (from your example) but I think there's a localized physical reason why it always tends to do that right there.
 
YetAnotherRDUGuy said:
I actually agree that psych is a slight factor, and one I heavily leaned towards when I 1st moved here. Also it's a large county by area.

But just from looking at numerous accumulation maps over the years, you start to see a clear pattern showing up repeatedly. I think there's more spread between S and E Wake and Durham/Orange than there is between other locations. As CR alluded to, there's a pattern where the accum line or precip line tends to turn sharply NE after going ENE from the W across the state. I'm not sure if it's as significant as from S Guilford to Forsyth (from your example) but I think there's a localized physical reason why it always tends to do that right there.
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I agree , there is some physical reason as well.
 
Lickwx said:
However, since you do specific predictions are you suggesting you predict the pattern of storm chance after chance and cold wave after wave to continue into mid feb ? How below average ? Like I said I don’t do those . Guaranteed to be wrong
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You could change the 500mb pattern but still get cold after cold and storm chance after storm chance. You need something a little more measurable
 
i am now exiting the potential storm thread. someone else from cae/sc is gonna have to do it.. i can't take the wishcasting and weenisim for someones specific back yard getting snow anymore.

good day
 
SD said:
You could change the 500mb pattern but still get cold after cold and storm chance after storm chance. You need something a little more measurable
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I’m looking at Alaska and the PNA region . Having a look that supports warmth more .
 
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