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Pattern Oppressive Ornery Obstinate Opposite October

GeorgiaGirl said:
Too bad the 384 hour goofy never works as it has 38 as a low lol.
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Forget fall. We go straight to winter there!
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whatalife said:
100% agree but my collards would welcome a nice little frost.


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I know I'm an ogre and curmudgeon, but I gotta say what's true, and be realistic in thoughts ...

Plus - my collards are never good until December --- but they make New Year's Day quail tasty ...
 
I disagree. There was snow in north Georgia on Halloween in 2014. We had a cold snowy winter. Anecdotal but my theory is a cold fall equals a cold winter.


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DustinWX said:
I disagree. There was snow in north Georgia on Halloween in 2014. We had a cold snowy winter. Anecdotal but my theory is a cold fall equals a cold winter.


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Well some people had a cold snowy winter. I think the airport got squat in the 14-15 winter.
 
DustinWX said:
I disagree. There was snow in north Georgia on Halloween in 2014. We had a cold snowy winter. Anecdotal but my theory is a cold fall equals a cold winter.


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not going to argue or debate - too many snowy halloweens have left nothing afterwards ... just life experience ...
 
DustinWX said:
In Florida?


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Yes - I live in the SE, just sleep in north FL; but to answer your question - yes - when it does snow here ... which it does more than you might think, it's after a warm to average fall --- never ever, ever after a cold late Oct or early Nov ...
but again - no argument or bad feelings ... just a lifetime of watching and doing ... :cool:
 
pcbjr said:
Yes - I live in the SE, just sleep in north FL; but to answer your question - yes - when it does snow here ... which it does more than you might think, it's after a warm to average fall --- never ever, ever after a cold late Oct or early Nov ...
but again - no argument or bad feelings ... just a lifetime of watching and doing ... :cool:
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Dude. Sounds good.


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DustinWX said:
Dude. Sounds good.


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Man, I'll PM you all sorts of FL snow info, but don't wanna clutter this up for folks that really don't care!
In all seriousness, I'm not posting to see my words on a page ... I hope to at least make it fun, and informative ... ;)
 
pcbjr said:
Man, I'll PM you all sorts of FL snow info, but don't wanna clutter this up for folks that really don't care!
In all seriousness, I'm not posting to see my words on a page ... I hope to at least make it fun, and informative ... ;)
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I'd actually like to see snow data for Florida.


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ForsythSnow said:
Good point. Glad it's way out there so it won't happen lol.
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Obviously yes it's not going to pan out exactly like that but I find it hard to believe it won't happen at all and/or won't be extremely impressive somewhere in the southeastern US and/or central plains esp when there could be more than 1 typhoon recurvature ~ October 20 in the WP
 
I hope this up coming pattern change will actually help our winter. I know many of you would love to wait until Dec for this change, but i rather take my chances now than have to wait late for a change that will never happen. If a pattern change is soon let it come for goodness sake. Tired of waiting anyways.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Obviously yes it's not going to pan out exactly like that but I find it hard to believe it won't happen at all and/or won't be extremely impressive somewhere in the southeastern US and/or central plains esp when there could be more than 1 typhoon recurvature ~ October 20 in the WP
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I agree, it may not happen the same way as model shows, but the signal is strong for much colder pattern. Funny thing is, it looks to stay a while end of month into November
 
Also, as a kid i remember full blown cold winters that stayed cold from Oct through much of winter. Not saying this is gonna be the same way, but eventually one day we will have a another episode.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Obviously yes it's not going to pan out exactly like that but I find it hard to believe it won't happen at all and/or won't be extremely impressive somewhere in the southeastern US and/or central plains esp when there could be more than 1 typhoon recurvature ~ October 20 in the WP
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Webber, got a few questions. Is it the typhoons recurving and mjo that may change the pattern to cold for us? Also, Mike ventrice mentioned the eps showing possible displacement of PV. Is that a separate thing or is it all tied to mjo phases?
 
It’s been a long time since we’ve had a cold November or October here.


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93 today woohoo October

Maybe 95 tomorrow

Wednesday was barely 70 and Sunday will struggle to see 70

90s become a lot less likely after tomorrow so we'll see:rolleyes:
 
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BHS1975 said:
It’s been a long time since we’ve had a cold November or October here.


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I'm telling y'all, like Phil said, you don't want an extremely cold snap in Oct/Nov, the rest of the winter will torch 90% of the time
 
Tarheel1 said:
I'm telling y'all, like Phil said, you don't want an extremely cold snap in Oct/Nov, the rest of the winter will torch 90% of the time
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What exactly do you consider an extremely cold snap ? It's pretty typical to have a front in late Oct/Nov bring freezing temps. Are you talking about like highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s ?
 
SoutheastRidge said:
What exactly do you consider an extremely cold snap ? It's pretty typical to have a front in late Oct/Nov bring freezing temps. Are you talking about like highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s ?
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Snow on Nov 1st a few years ago, stuff like that! That winter was a total disaster
 
Not for the faint-hearted, but at least today it looks as though we can put away any discussion about whether a cold late October (or early November) portends a warm winter ... :oops:
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But wait, the end of October, Early November, gonna be cold! JB and DT told me! :)
 
pcbjr said:
Not for the faint-hearted, but at least today it looks as though we can put away any discussion about whether a cold late October (or early November) portends a warm winter ... :oops:
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I also wouldn't put much, if any stock in the CFSv2 given its consistently the worst performing global model & is at odds w/ all other modeling packages atm in addition to the large-scale pattern which argues for a pattern shift late month
 
Sometimes patterns can lock into place for several months (like 99-00, last year, and potentially this year). There is not a strong correlation either way between what the Fall (or Summer) is like versus what Winter is like. November 2014 was cold but Winter 14-15 was cold and as well overall.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I also wouldn't put much, if any stock in the CFSv2 given its consistently the worst performing global model & is at odds w/ all other modeling packages atm in addition to the large-scale pattern which argues for a pattern shift late month
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The CFSv2 consistently performs worse than even the NAVGEM and CMC suites at most leads... This model sucks really bad...
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Webberweather53 said:
I also wouldn't put much, if any stock in the CFSv2 given its consistently the worst performing global model & is at odds w/ all other modeling packages atm in addition to the large-scale pattern which argues for a pattern shift late month
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Webb ... Goodness gracious, I know that! Been throwing darts at that model for years. Remember? Was using the CFSv2 to make another point altogether. Guess I totally missed in presenting my (veiled or maybe sarcastic?) analogy ... :(
Best!
Phil
 
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StormNine59 said:
Sometimes patterns can lock into place for several months (like 99-00, last year, and potentially this year). There is not a strong correlation either way between what the Fall (or Summer) is like versus what Winter is like. November 2014 was cold but Winter 14-15 was cold and as well overall.
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It sure seems like we have no problems locking into a hot pattern.
 
I feel like I'm the only one who's not all doom and gloom about the long-range, especially winter. Like I know the past two winters haven't been so great but I feel like the upcoming winter will be better than the last two, and as for the current pattern. Things will change, I have faith.
 
DustinWX said:
I disagree. There was snow in north Georgia on Halloween in 2014. We had a cold snowy winter. Anecdotal but my theory is a cold fall equals a cold winter.


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I remember that night. I was driving up 400 near roswell/alphretta and the rain was coming down so hard it changed to snow for a brief period. Nothing stuck of course as it was in the 38-40 range I believe. It was interesting though.
 
tennessee storm said:
yeah... i wouldnt put my shorts away and flip flops just yet...
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sheeit, that's my standard fare unless it gets below 20 degrees even in Winter. But all models point to a brief warmup after this week's cold front, then a big cool down again.
 
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