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Tropical Hurricane Nate

In the end this storm will be forgotten when you think of all the terrible storms there have been this year.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
In the end this storm will be forgotten when you think of all the terrible storms there have been this year.
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Assuming it does what we expect it to do. There has been too many uncertainties to this year already, and until its near the US, we can't call anything. It does look bad right now, but we don't know what it could or could not become.
 
Lol the 12z HMON has a bomb . Stupid model while the HWRF is more in line with the gfs

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Storm5 said:
Lol the 12z HMON has a bomb . Stupid model while the HWRF is more in line with the gfs

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I would be careful about calling the HMON stupid on anything but pressure. The pressure on that model sucks, but if it keeps holding onto those stronger winds, it may very well strengthen close to them.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I would be careful about calling the HMON stupid on anything but pressure. The pressure on that model sucks, but if it keeps holding onto those stronger winds, it may very well strengthen close to them.
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Correct me if I am wrong but wasn't this model the one that first picked up on the strength of Irma and Maria? So much has happened the past month or two I don't remember if it was or if I am remembering incorrectly
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
Who has the 12Z UK?
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So we have good agreement with a Louisiana landfall at this point. Maybe the track will finally start to settle down

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Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
If I saw the UK track right, it was either right on NHC or just east.
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It an eastern outlier which like you said shoots Ne of the NHC track. With the Euro shifting west with its inland track through eastern Mississippi and the gfs already riding through central Mississippi I bet they adjust west s a little

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So most of the NWS offices in the SE have impact graphics for their forecast area. Not KBMX same stupid graphic they have been using for the past 36 hours. Said they hope to pinpoint impacts by tomorrow lol pathectic

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FWIW, yes it's the NAM and it's horrible with tropical systems but once nate moves back out over water later it keeps it over water and just east of the Yucatan

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It sounds like NHC is expecting a strengthening hurricane up until landfall:

It should be noted that while
the forecast shows a peak intensity of 70 kt at 48 h, Nate is
expected to continue to strengthen between 48 h and landfall and
thus is likely to be stronger than 70 kt.
 
Storm5 said:
So most of the NWS offices in the SE have impact graphics for their forecast area. Not KBMX same stupid graphic they have been using for the past 36 hours. Said they hope to pinpoint impacts by tomorrow lol pathectic

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I believe after the Irma debacle with B'ham and areas north and west, they are trying to wait as long as possible before showing possible impacts. If it appears minimal I hope we do not declare a State of Emergency and close schools for two days for 25 mph winds. We on here always have to remember we are in the minority and the general public and government officials hit the panic button when the hear "threat".
 
MRStorm said:
I believe after the Irma debacle with B'ham and areas north and west, they are trying to wait as long as possible before showing possible impacts. If it appears minimal I hope we do not declare a State of Emergency and close schools for two days for 25 mph winds. We on here always have to remember we are in the minority and the general public and government officials hit the panic button when the hear "threat".
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A state of emergency is coming for Alabama possibly as soon as tonight . We all know how that goes.

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Storm5 said:
West shift
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Honestly, just dont believe it will go that west. I actually think there will be a small east shift when all said and done. Nothing to based this off of, but keep in mind UK does pretty good with hurricanes with path wise, i believe.
 
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