Severe New Years Severe Weather Event

[HSVweather]

Timmer do a live analysis if anyone is interested

 

[HSVweather]

 

[Zander98al]

Yeah saw models show some isolated cells later this afternoon. My Alabama football game better not be interrupted ?

 

[Johnkittz]

Did he mean outside chance? If not I cant find what outside change means lol.

 

[Snowfan]

Did he mean outside chance? If not I cant find what outside change means lol.

One of the reasons why Twitter needs a edit button.

 

[Darklordsuperstorm]

Should be fine game is on espn

Yeah saw models show some isolated cells later this afternoon. My Alabama football game better not be interrupted ?

 

[RebelBearLandshark]

New SPC outlook expanded the enhanced zone further to the Northeast and slightly to the West.

 

[TileDude]

Yeah saw models show some isolated cells later this afternoon. My Alabama football game better not be interrupted ?

Game is on ESPN so no local disruptions

 

[Dewpoint Dan]

Game is on ESPN so no local disruptions

Unless the storms knock power out

 

[Zander98al]

Game is on ESPN so no local disruptions

That's good I thought it was espn on ABC for some reason

 

[RebelBearLandshark]

"Given these trends, will maintain the ongoing ENH risk area. However, there is acknowledgment of the risk of a higher end event including strong tornadoes if later guidance shows a weaker mid-level warm nose and more robust discrete convective development over the warm sector." From recent SPC forecast discussion.

 

[TileDude]

So possible upgrade to a moderate risk ?

 

[Zander98al]

16z hrrr simulated radar for 3 oclock today

 

[Johnkittz]

Seems low end today.

 

[malak05]

16z hrrr simulated radar for 3 oclock todayView attachment 100248

Seems like FFC is at least keeping a keen eye on this short window this afternoon for some pretty strong storms

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1133 AM EST Fri Dec 31 2021

.UPDATE...

Dense morning fog has largely become more diffuse at this hour,
though a few holdout sites are still reporting visibilities
occasionally a mile or less. Visibilities in these areas will
continue to improve through early afternoon. How the afternoon and
evening forecast plays out is still rather uncertain. The forecast
area remains situated in the weakly forced warm sector. We have
already seen some isolated showers and a thunderstorm or two
across portions of north Georgia this morning. If additional
convection is able to develop and sustain itself this afternoon
and evening, the environment would be capable of supporting an
isolated severe threat. A couple of recent CAM runs have supported
the idea of a couple of isolated cells of supercellular appearance in
north Georgia by late afternoon and early evening, so this
potential will be monitored. Otherwise, it will remain another
very warm day with record breaking highs again possible.

 

[BufordWX]

Seems like FFC is at least keeping a keen eye on this short window this afternoon for some pretty strong storms

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1133 AM EST Fri Dec 31 2021

.UPDATE...

Dense morning fog has largely become more diffuse at this hour,
though a few holdout sites are still reporting visibilities
occasionally a mile or less. Visibilities in these areas will
continue to improve through early afternoon. How the afternoon and
evening forecast plays out is still rather uncertain. The forecast
area remains situated in the weakly forced warm sector. We have
already seen some isolated showers and a thunderstorm or two
across portions of north Georgia this morning. If additional
convection is able to develop and sustain itself this afternoon
and evening, the environment would be capable of supporting an
isolated severe threat. A couple of recent CAM runs have supported
the idea of a couple of isolated cells of supercellular appearance in
north Georgia by late afternoon and early evening, so this
potential will be monitored. Otherwise, it will remain another
very warm day with record breaking highs again possible.

Latest Hrrr certainly shows some storms this afternoon and evening. Will have to see if/how strong they are. Certainly something by to watch.

 

[FortMillSCWx]

SPC

 

[BufordWX]

Latest SPC mesoscale discussion on Alabama severe potential this afternoon. Still seems rather conditional and they mention the hrrr as an outlier. Will have to monitor trends.

 

[Dewpoint Dan]

Latest SPC mesoscale discussion on Alabama severe potential this afternoon. Still seems rather conditional and they mention the hrrr as an outlier. Will have to monitor trends.View attachment 100276

Hmmm. No mention of Georgia but they have Georgia circled ?

 

[NWMSGuy]

Interesting

 

[Snowman63]

Interesting
View attachment 100298

Looks like another night time event for our area.

 

[BufordWX]

Hmmm…

 

[khughey]

Hmmm…View attachment 100321

Sisters? Hope not.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Zander98al]

Storm near west blocton Alabama is a eye catcher.

 

[Lostnthaweather85]

NE Alabama mischief

 

[Zander98al]

View attachment 100329
NE Alabama mischief

Needs a tornado warning. It's pretty tight now

 

[BufordWX]

Starting to tighten…

 

[droptines35758]

How is that not Tor warned?

 

[Parker]

 

[Zander98al]

View attachment 100341

That's dangerous. Mobile home being flipped over. Hope nobody was hurt

 

[TheBatman]

That's dangerous. Mobile home being flipped over. Hope nobody was hurt

 

[BufordWX]

Might be trying to tighten back up again.

 

[BufordWX]

Looks like a small cell is trying develop southeast of Atlanta.

 

[Snowfan]

 

[HSVweather]

 

[Zander98al]

21z rap rap sounding for tommorow around the Tuscaloosa area.

 

[BufordWX]

Tornado warning

 

[Zander98al]

Two tornado warnings in Georgia now.

 

[BufordWX]

Another one east of Atlanta.

 

[Zander98al]

Tornado warningView attachment 100386

TDS tornado on the ground with this one!