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Tropical Major Hurricane Maria

ForsythSnow said:
I have seen that the GFS wants to develop something, but the ensembles you show are only making the case stronger. If we get something that moves into that area and has no wind shear, we could be in trouble again. We have yet to have a storm there and the environment is hotter that Irma and Maria's were. Can we throw an iceberg or two into the ocean there so we can't have this threat? LOL
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We'll just have to see what happens, these monsoon gyre developments can either result in lopsided, very large TCs or absolute monsters, but regardless what usually results is a massive tropical cyclone. You're virtually guaranteed a huge TC when development is spurred off the monsoon gyre because the background pressures associated with it are low-extraordinarily low and the upper level moisture is very high
 
This forecast is out the window now, unless we see some RI later today.

INIT 20/1500Z 18.4N 66.5W 120 KT 140 MPH...OVER PUERTO RICO
12H 21/0000Z 19.2N 67.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 20.2N 69.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 21.2N 70.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 22.4N 71.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 25.3N 72.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 28.5N 73.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 25/1200Z 31.5N 73.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
 
Not too surprising, didn't Maria stay across PR a little longer than forecast? Any extended period of time over any landmass of any elevation would be enough to knock the wind (no pun intended) out of a monstrous Cat. 4/5 hurricane.
 
I don't think we should underestimate how powerful she still is. Keep in mind those winds were hitting the mountains.
recon_AF305-0915A-MARIA_dropsonde3_20170920-1745.png
 
Euro looks to be headed OTS

Jose keeps getting weaker and weaker but there's also a big trough in the plains
 
Center has emerged off the NW coast so we shall see what happens next

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One thing ive noticed is that the NHC has trouble forecasting intensity when a hurricane is in or near land. Wasnt Irma also weaker than forecast after she made landfall with Cuba ?
 
SoutheastRidge said:
One thing ive noticed is that the NHC has trouble forecasting intensity when a hurricane is in or near land. Wasnt Irma also weaker than forecast after she made landfall with Cuba ?
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intensity is always a pain, neither Irma or Maria was forecast to be a 5 the initial time until it was painfully obvious

Harvey's landfall forecast was originally barely a hurricane
 
Euro has the upper level disturbance and tugs Maria back nnw, slowing down maybe headed to the NE region

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Any damage reports from Puerto Rico? Have been reading posts about coverage of St Croix and Virgin Islands. People there are upset with major news outlets for not covering them such as they have Puerto Rico and Leeward Islands. Apparently St Croix communications are down at this time. Just tragic & heartbreaking at all the posts about people worried about their loved ones. And if they survived.
 
stormcentral said:
Any damage reports from Puerto Rico? Have been reading posts about coverage of St Croix and Virgin Islands. People there are upset with major news outlets for not covering them such as they have Puerto Rico and Leeward Islands. Apparently St Croix communications are down at this time. Just tragic & heartbreaking at all the posts about people worried about their loved ones. And if they survived.
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I heard there's no power at all in PR, even most of the chasers have either not reported or only briefly made a report, no real details
 
Webberweather53 said:
The Central American monsoon gyre really starting to come to life by day 8-9
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I hope it can gyrate some rain up here! But if anything forms, it'll probably drift into Texas! :(
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Would a weaker than forecast hurricane change the direction in which she goes?
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"Would" is a maybe at best; "could" is a possibility. A lot depends on steering currents, and what PR did to the overall direction, and where an eye may reform, and when that might happen ... etc., ...


EDIT: I was just listening to JB on the radio while driving from the courthouse and he says that FL "has absolutely 0 chance of being affected by Maria." I wonder why I suddenly have this sinking sensation in my gut ...
 
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ForsythSnow said:
Depends really. For now, the center had moved due west between 11 and 2 along the coast, but is moving more NW again.
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Looks like it's still moving more west than north on IR. That said its hard to be sure of that. Something to watch and see if it can clear the coast or does friction from Hispanola pull it in.
 
Arcc said:
Looks like it's still moving more west than north on IR. That said its hard to be sure of that. Something to watch and see if it can clear the coast or does friction from Hispanola pull it in.
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Precisely ... another of many variables ...
 
Still no true support for a Southeast hit. Here is the 18z hurricane modeling.
15_L_tracks_latest.png
 
I'm thinking probably close to what Jose has done up the east coast

Of course things could change but that's my theory right now

Certainly highly doubt Florida, the Carolinas are still in play though if it shifts westward
 
Tarheel1 said:
I hope it can gyrate some rain up here! But if anything forms, it'll probably drift into Texas! :(
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A route to the north or northeast out of the Caribbean into the east-central Gulf, SW Atlantic, or a drift into Central America is favored at this time of the year, the stronger mid-latitude westerlies usually steer TCs away from Texas in the 2nd half of the season although it's not impossible for TX to see them.
 
Texas season pretty much shuts down once the fronts start coming, I'm expecting the next Texas storm to be an EPAC recurve, Norma at one point was going to recurve over Texas and then just sort of died
 
Brent said:
Texas season pretty much shuts down once the fronts start coming, I'm expecting the next Texas storm to be an EPAC recurve, Norma tried and failed
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Yeah after mid-late September when the Rockies ridge erodes it usually comes to a close. Unfortunately, areas of SW FL recently affected by Irma are in the climatological sweet spot for a US hit in October
 
this is pretty wow

We would like to thank the crew of the latest Air Force Reserve
mission for their incredible service today. After beginning their
mission this morning before the center first moved onshore, the crew
went above and beyond, returning to Curacao to refuel, and then
heading back to Puerto Rico to catch Maria's center when it first
moved back off the coast. The data collected by the crew was
incredibly important for us to analyze Maria's intensity and
structure after moving across the island, and we are grateful for
their effort.
 
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pcbjr said:
"Would" is a maybe at best; "could" is a possibility. A lot depends on steering currents, and what PR did to the overall direction, and where an eye may reform, and when that might happen ... etc., ...


EDIT: I was just listening to JB on the radio while driving from the courthouse and he says that FL "has absolutely 0 chance of being affected by Maria." I wonder why I suddenly have this sinking sensation in my gut ...
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I wouldn't say absolute 0 chance tor FL but I would say under 1% for FL and GA and under 5% for SC. The models are in about as much agreement as you ever see and they're well off the coast. I don't think this weakening means much regarding future track. The Outer Banks obviously are at the highest risk of any SE US location but I'd go only about 20% right now for an actual NC landfall though higher chance for significant effects.

I want to thank Jose for a job well done. Thank you, good sir, for protecting much of the SE!
 
GaWx said:
I wouldn't say absolute 0 chance tor FL but I would say under 1% for FL and GA and under 5% for SC. The models are in about as much agreement as you ever see and they're well off the coast. I don't think this weakening means much regarding future track. The Outer Banks obviously are at the highest risk of any SE US location but I'd go only about 20% right now for an actual NC landfall though higher chance for significant effects.

I want to thank Jose for a job well done. Thank you, good sir, for protecting much of the SE!
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Part was semantics; the other part ... :rolleyes:

You live in a world of statistical likelihoods; I in one of possibilities vs. probabilities; much the same end-game though my focus is often words and yours numbers ... ;)

Still ... puts us on the same page at so many levels ... :cool:
 
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Brent said:
I heard there's no power at all in PR, even most of the chasers have either not reported or only briefly made a report, no real details
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Doesn't surprise me. They are customers of the outage management software I used to develop (not yet in production), and their power grid infrastructure is one of the worst we had ever seen.
 
skywatcher said:
Doesn't surprise me. They are customers of the outage management software I used to develop (not yet in production), and their power grid infrastructure is one of the worst we had ever seen.
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They might as well start from scratch and build a smart grid with wind and solar and batteries. Otherwise it’s throwing good money after bad.


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