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Misc 2021-22 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

Thor said:
I dont personally begrudge any former southerner snow. I think the problem is the factors that can cause it to snow in other parts of the country are so different than what we need down here. I think give it a trial thread for like a Non SE winter thread. Hopefully some of the regular posters will chime in on it and help out with maps/analysis a bit. I'd personally probably read it, but it's hard to have everyone in the same thread because we are basically rooting against each other to get the pattern we need.
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It's really mystifying, right?

I think they call it something...like...Climo...?
 
SD said:
We have found ourself in a bit of a pickle here tbh. We have a slowly expanding footprint with a core of members from different states in the region and now outside of the region. Not entirely sure how to manage that in a way that isn't disruptive or alienates certain posters. I'm more than happy to listen to suggestions
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Do you want me to post my pics and obs and screenshots in banter??? Even if it’s on topic with the mont or storm?
NorthDFWwx said:
It's mystifying right?

I think they call it something...like...Climo...?
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great Idea! Ima give it a try
 
Lickwx said:
Can we ban the complaining about other folks from other places ? We literally have 2 active members from snowy cold places . Only 2! Y’all can’t tolerate 2 members ? 2 members ? That’s rough.
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Are you counting Brent?
 
Lickwx said:
Can we ban the complaining about other folks from other places ? We literally have 2 active members from snowy cold places . Only 2! Y’all can’t tolerate 2 members ? 2 members ? That’s rough.
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I just want everyone to remember we are all here to discuss weather. I mean the whole reason this site was started was to do that without worry about it always being confrontational like it was at other places and to give a place to show a little more excitement and disappointment when the models are good or bad. I want everyone to have fun, enjoy it, and be happy that someone on here might be getting the weather we so desire versus being mad about it. Emotions aren't going to change the outcome
 
SD said:
I just want everyone to remember we are all here to discuss weather. I mean the whole reason this site was started was to do that without worry about it always being confrontational like it was at other places and to give a place to show a little more excitement and disappointment when the models are good or bad. I just want everyone to have fun and enjoy it and be happy that someone on here might be getting the weather we so desire versus being mad about it. Emotions aren't going to change the outcome
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Post of the month honestly! Well said! I have more pics on my phone of clouds and weather related stuff! Even more than beautiful thick girls! I love snow more than anything and the chase is more fun than the event, still!
 
SD said:
Just leafing through the Jan thread. I'd like to see someone find winters that had djf all solidly BN. I'm not talking -2--1 or barely bn find a year that had all 3 well BN. I'd also challenge anyone to find a year that had significant snow/winter storms in all 3 months you can bring march/Nov in of you'd like to see if you can get 3 of 5. My guess is you are going to find a small % outside of the mountains and maybe the classic wedge zones.

All I'm saying is the idea that we in the SE lock cold and endlessly cycle through winter storms from December to Feb is the exception and in reality most of our winters are typically defined by shorter periods of cold or multiple snows within a 14-28 day period
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I agree with your general idea that wall to wall cold is rare.

These are the 10 winters out of 144 (7% of them or ~1 in 14) that had all 3 months more than 2 BN at KATL:

1885-6, 1901-2, 1903-4, 1935-6 (all 4+ BN), 1962-3 (all 5+ BN), 1963-4, 1968-9, 1976-7 (all 4+ BN), 1977-8, 2009-10

- 5 of these 10 were weak to moderate El Niño
- 6 of the 10 were El Niño
- 3 of the 10 were neutral
- 1 of the 10 was La Niña (1903-4)
- 4 of the last 5 were weak to moderate El Niño
- the last 5 were all El Niño; the last that wasn’t was the neutral 1962-3; the last that was La Niña was way back in 1903-4
 
GaWx said:
I agree with your general idea that wall to wall cold is rare.

These are the 10 winters out of 144 (7% of them or ~1 in 14) that had all 3 months more than 2 BN at KATL:

1885-6, 1901-2, 1903-4, 1935-6 (all 4+ BN), 1962-3 (all 5+ BN), 1963-4, 1968-9, 1976-7 (all 4+ BN), 1977-8, 2009-10

- 5 of these 10 were weak to moderate El Niño
- 6 of the 10 were El Niño
- 3 of the 10 were neutral
- 1 of the 10 was La Niña (1903-4)
- 4 of the last 5 were weak to moderate El Niño
- the last 5 were all El Niño; the last that wasn’t was the neutral 1962-3; the last that was La Niña was way back in 1903-4
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Interesting to see 76-78 there, 75 is a decent SST analog......
 
GaWx said:
I agree with your general idea that wall to wall cold is rare.

These are the 10 winters out of 144 (7% of them or ~1 in 14) that had all 3 months more than 2 BN at KATL:

1885-6, 1901-2, 1903-4, 1935-6 (all 4+ BN), 1962-3 (all 5+ BN), 1963-4, 1968-9, 1976-7 (all 4+ BN), 1977-8, 2009-10

- 5 of these 10 were weak to moderate El Niño
- 6 of the 10 were El Niño
- 3 of the 10 were neutral
- 1 of the 10 was La Niña (1903-4)
- 4 of the last 5 were weak to moderate El Niño
- the last 5 were all El Niño; the last that wasn’t was the neutral 1962-3; the last that was La Niña was way back in 1903-4
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And just how many winters have had all 3 months more than 2 AN ? My guess is more than 10.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Post of the month honestly! Well said! I have more pics on my phone of clouds and weather related stuff! Even more than beautiful thick girls! I love snow more than anything and the chase is more fun than the event, still!
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I get people's frustration there are plenty of times in summer when it doesn't rain here but others post their totals and I want to wish drought on them but what does that accomplish other than being spiteful? No matter how much negativity, positivity, analogging, model posting, wishcasting, bittercasting, gets done the outcome is going to be what it is. The more I do this the more I realize Bastardi was right with "enjoy the weather, it's the only weather you get"
 
SD said:
I get people's frustration there are plenty of times in summer when it doesn't rain here but others post their totals and I want to wish drought on them but what does that accomplish other than being spiteful? No matter how much negativity, positivity, analogging, model posting, wishcasting, bittercasting, gets done the outcome is going to be what it is. The more I do this the more I realize Bastardi was right with "enjoy the weather, it's the only weather you get"
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The difference is, in the summer if you miss out on a storm there's no need to worry because you know you'll have plenty of more chances.
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
And just how many winters have had all 3 months more than 2 AN ? My guess is more than 10.
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Yep, 13, with 4 of those 13 since 2011-12.

1879-80 (La Niña), 1881-2 (neutral), 1889-90 (La Niña), 1908-9 (La Niña), 1931-2 (neutral), 1948-9 (neutral), 1956-7 (neutral) 1996-7 (neutral), 1998-9 (La Nina), 2011-2 (La Niña), 2016-7 (La Niña), 2018-9 (El Nino), 2019-20 (neutral)

- 6 of the 13 La Niña
- 6 of the 13 neutral
- only 1 of the 13 El Niño (2018-9) but it was recent and thus is misleading about El Niño to some
- mirror opposite of the 10 wall to wall cold with 6 times as many of these wall to wall warm ones being La Niña vs El Niño; with wall to wall cold, 6 times as many were El Niño vs La Nina
 
GaWx said:
Yep, 13, with 4 of those 13 since 2011-12.

1879-80 (La Niña), 1881-2 (neutral), 1889-90 (La Niña), 1908-9 (La Niña), 1931-2 (neutral), 1948-9 (neutral), 1956-7 (neutral) 1996-7 (neutral), 1998-9 (La Nina), 2011-2 (La Niña), 2016-7 (La Niña), 2018-9 (El Nino), 2019-20 (neutral)

- 6 of the 13 La Niña
- 6 of the 13 neutral
- only 1 of the 13 El Niño (2018-9) but it was recent and thus is misleading about El Niño to some
- mirror opposite of the 10 wall to wall cold with 6 times as many of these wall to wall warm ones being La Niña vs El Niño; with wall to wall cold, 6 times as many were El Niño vs La Nina
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Do you have time to pull the snow/ice data from the cold years and warm years?
 
SD said:
I get people's frustration there are plenty of times in summer when it doesn't rain here but others post their totals and I want to wish drought on them but what does that accomplish other than being spiteful? No matter how much negativity, positivity, analogging, model posting, wishcasting, bittercasting, gets done the outcome is going to be what it is. The more I do this the more I realize Bastardi was right with "enjoy the weather, it's the only weather you get"
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And it’s only weather! It’s going to snow in Iowa, drought in California, hurricane in Florida, so I’m going to document the weather I’m experiencing!
 
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