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Tropical Major Hurricane Maria

Can't say I'm upset about Maria going out to sea. It would have been the worst case scenario if she hit the Florida region. Here's hoping the majors are done for this season!
 
still thing an unforeseen steering from the east will appear and steer her west, hope not but this is what irma was supposed to do as well and we see how that tuned out
she defied climo the entire time
 
PEA_RIDGE said:
still thing an unforeseen steering from the east will appear and steer her west, hope not but this is what irma was supposed to do as well and we see how that tuned out
she defied climo the entire time
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Yeah but there was never this much agreement with going OTS with Irma a week out; not to mention the WAR is way weaker and much further east.


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looks like a good west west wobble @0815 utc

rb-animated.gif
 
accu35 said:
Even with the wobble, this is almost a done deal OTS.
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Not so fast, shawty! Too early and too many variables , expect the unexpected!
 
06z GFS & its ensembles are out to sea.
15_L_gefs_06z.png




By the way, even more Euro ensemble support out to sea than the previous run.

AL15_2017091800_ECENS_large.png
 
.Sorry, that Euro ensemble run above was old. Here is the new one from last night's 00z run. As you can see, the cluster is getting tighter.

image.png
 
Not that I want to see another major, but I remember Matthew was almost consensus OTS early in the game. However the difference is that Matthew did have a major model (Ukie?) that consistently showed something while everyone else was out to lunch, this has 0 of anything showing anything.

As far as I'm concerned, this can stay ots. But now is too soon to jump to a conclusion.
 
Recon is finding some pretty strong winds per the drops in the levels. The drop in the SE eyewall, which i believe is the second weakest part of the storm normally, had a 200 mph wind only several hundred feet up! Cat 5 at the surface though. Also, what's up with the SFMR winds not showing up? Probably just a glitch in data streaming or equipment malfunction.
recon_AF305-0415A-MARIA_dropsonde5_20170919-1022.png
 
Tarheel1 said:
Not so fast, shawty! Too early and too many variables , expect the unexpected!
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Yes there are many different variables and could be a different solution, but models are pretty in a strong agreement about where shes going. Me for one hopes she stays well off shore, no one needs this again. Clusters and coming together and tighter of where she is headed. I pretty think this is a done deal as she steers OTS
 
Nothing in the tropics is a done deal 7+ days out. I'll trust model consensus 3 days out, but not 7. I've seen this song and dance too many times
 
Snowflowxxl said:
Thread sure died now that we figure it's OTS lol
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I'm going to wait three days to call Maria's path. Too many variables. Jose is being too much of a confusion, as the NHC keeps saying he's moving due north quicly while recon says he's moving NW and has confirmed this in two flights. I'm going to say that the HWRF and HMON are onto something with the UKMET having Jose go right into the East coast versus way out. In fact, I think that unless he turns eastward any, he may already be headed that way. Seeing this shift on the HWRF and HMON bring Maria more SW, but still OTS. Give a big shift in Jose's path, you will have a big one in Maria's. Nothing is off the table yet I feel as Maria is still in a WNW movement. Starting to turn more NW, but still not as a fast as the NHC expected.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I'm going to wait three days to call Maria's path. Too many variables. Jose is being too much of a confusion, as the NHC keeps saying he's moving due north quicly while recon says he's moving NW and has confirmed this in two flights. I'm going to say that the HWRF and HMON are onto something with the UKMET having Jose go right into the East coast versus way out. In fact, I think that unless he turns eastward any, he may already be headed that way. Seeing this shift on the HWRF and HMON bring Maria more SW, but still OTS. Give a big shift in Jose's path, you will have a big one in Maria's. Nothing is off the table yet I feel as Maria is still in a WNW movement. Starting to turn more NW, but still not as a fast as the NHC expected.
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Current water vapor imagery is very telling at this point in time - the players on the field and those on the sidelines are all quite apparent - the question is, who stays on the field, and who comes in the field of play from the sidelines when the 2nd half resumes.
https://atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12
 
So much for this being guaranteed out to sea like many were exclaiming earlier this morning... We seriously need to wait until this is north of the Dominican Republic and Haiti sometime on Friday or so before making any legitimate judgement calls on Maria's long term future wrt potentially threatening the US...
ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_9.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
So much for this being guaranteed out to sea like many were exclaiming earlier this morning... We seriously need to wait until this is north of the Dominican Republic and Haiti sometime on Friday or so before making any legitimate judgement calls on Maria's long term future wrt potentially threatening the US...
View attachment 1310
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Yeah Euro just got my attention that's for sure..

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Webberweather53 said:
So much for this being guaranteed out to sea like many were exclaiming earlier this morning... We seriously need to wait until this is north of the Dominican Republic and Haiti sometime on Friday or so before making any legitimate judgement calls on Maria's long term future wrt potentially threatening the US...
View attachment 1310
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Exactly. It's too unknown and a US impact has been on the table in my opinion still. Looking at the festures, a small shift in any could cause a completely unexpected solution many don't see at this time. Model consensus can be wrong, and seeing the HWRF and HMON trying to bring Jose closer to the US with less of a loop is a big red flag not to say OTS is guaranteed.
 
12z eps still tight cluster off the coast but that cluster has shifted west some.... I'm not sounding the all clear yet nothing to add at this point that hasn't been said, way too many unknowns, not the least of which is Jose

0z eps
AL15_2017091900_ECENS_large.png


12z eps
AL15_2017091912_ECENS_large.png
 
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