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Tropical Major Hurricane Maria

GEFS...
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ForsythSnow said:
Anyone know how small the eye Is? By guessing, I believe it is about 10 to 15 miles in diameter.
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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 18th day of the month at 16:50Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5305
Storm Number & Year: 15 in 2017
Storm Name: Maria (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 22 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )
A. Time of Center Fix: 18th day of the month at 16:35:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14°45'N 60°14'W (14.75N 60.2333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 56 statute miles (90 km) to the E (80°) from Fort-de-France, Martinique (France).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,727m (8,947ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 104kts (~ 119.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 5 nautical miles (6 statute miles) to the SE (134°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 218° at 101kts (From the SW at ~ 116.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the SE (134°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 957mb (28.26 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,045m (9,990ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,038m (9,967ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 8 nautical miles
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 115kts (~ 132.3mph) which was observed 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the E (89°) from the flight level center at 14:41:00Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 245° at 18kts (From the WSW at 21mph)

General Notes About Vortex Messages:
 
ForsythSnow said:
2 PM update has 125 mph and 956 mb? Seriously? That's extremely conservative given that the drops are finding higher.
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Yeah they're playing it very conservative because they want to make sure the storm is really intensifying this quickly and get another dropsonde into the stronger northeastern quadrant to verify the sonde in the SE quad. Even still, yeah I think at least an upgrade to a 115 knot category 4 should have been warranted here...
 
Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph
(200 km/h) with higher gusts. Maria is a category 3 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional rapid
strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Maria is
expected to be a dangerous major hurricane as it moves through the
Leeward Islands and the northeastern Caribbean Sea.
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The ECMWF still shows Jose deepening 10mb in the next 24 hours. Yea, that's probably unrealistic given the 50 knots of shear it's embedded in and current organization...
 
metwannabe said:
Looks like Jose coming to save the east coast again on the Euro
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I swear if I see another model strengthen Jose when Jose is clearly only got a few more days left as a proper TC... Jose is almost extra tropical and there is no way I am sure that he can regain that much strength. Who knows really, but I am expecting a large shift west if Jose is a moderate TS by tomorrow this time.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I swear if I see another model strengthen Jose when Jose is clearly only got a few more days left as a proper TC... Jose is almost extra tropical and there is no way I am sure that he can regain that much strength. Who knows really, but I am expecting a large shift west if Jose is a moderate TS by tomorrow this time.
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Agreed... but umm wth?!
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Jose looks horrible. Shear, warm ocean temperatures will hinder it from much of anything else.

Here's a funny story. The Euro initialized Jose stronger than Maria on it's new 12z operational run and strengthens Jose 10mb within the next 24 hours.
 
I'm not saying it can't still recurve and miss the us even if jose is a lot weaker but it just calls into question the models with the unrealistic scenarios lol
 
Jose is still over some decent water temps albeit borderline. Any relaxing of the shear could get some storms firing near the center again. Also if it deviates east of the forecast track it will stay over marginal water longer. Not saying it will happen but it's not entirely out of the question...:weenie:
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The 12Z EPS is less threatening to the SE US than is the 0Z EPS and is pretty consistent with the 12Z Euro operational. There are only a few SE US hits with none in FL/GA/Gulf, just one in SC and perhaps a couple in NC. Phil can relax for the time being.
 
Ryan M seems to think a cat 5 is coming. Not good. When is the next flight in? They need to get in there later today because this storm may be one by then, or a very strong 4 :confused:
 
Ryan is right. There's virtually nothing of note to disturb her development. Might see the most development after dark, in fact.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Ryan M seems to think a cat 5 is coming. Not good. When is the next flight in? They need to get in there later today because this storm may be one by then, or a very strong 4 :confused:
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I'd wager that it looks like it's really close to a category 5 right now and is probably no weaker than about 125 knots... Suspect like earlier this morning, when the first recon plane descended into the center, they're low-balling the intensity a little bit. Of course, as usual as soon as the last plane left, the storm cleared its eye out and organization increased markedly
 
Webberweather53 said:
I'd wager that it looks like it's really close to a category 5 right now and is probably no weaker than about 125 knots... Suspect like earlier this morning, when the first recon plane descended into the center, they're low-balling the intensity a little bit. Of course, as usual as soon as the last plane left, the storm cleared its eye out and organization increased markedly
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Talking about organization, the eyewall is not the most impressive, but is closed very well.
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/anim_radar_mart_mf_com.html
 
ForsythSnow said:
Talking about organization, the eyewall is not the most impressive, but is closed very well.
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/anim_radar_mart_mf_com.html
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Satellite intensity estimates and canonical techniques may often miss the Maria's eye entirely because it's too small and thus can be more easily shrouded by a cirrus canopy. Recon found sufficient data IMHO to support a 115-120 knot category 4 hurricane at 2pm before the eye really cleared out & for some odd reason decided to keep it at a 3. Regardless it has definitely intensified markedly since that advisory came out and I expect an upgrade to a 4 at 5pm and once the plane gets into the storm, it's possible they may find a category 5 given how quickly it has organized and how organized it already is...
 
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