12/15/21 Midwest Severe

[SD]

Day 1 Categorical


Day 1 Wind


day 1 tor


Day 1 sigtor


13z HRRR with a monster line this afternoon

 

[RBR71]

Day 1 Categorical
View attachment 98040

Day 1 Wind
View attachment 98041

day 1 tor
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Day 1 sigtor
View attachment 98043

13z HRRR with a monster line this afternoon
View attachment 98044

Dude that squall line on the HRRR just looks nightmarish

 

[SD]

Dude that squall line on the HRRR just looks nightmarish

Really impressive

Probably going to have some incredible wind/wind dmg reports aside from any tors than can get going within the line

 

[NorthDFWwx]

3km NAM is different, but equally as scary looking too. Showing more of a widespread supercell / tornado threat.

 

[Darklordsuperstorm]

Not very often that you see a moderate risk that far north in the middle of December. Yikes ?

 

[NorthDFWwx]

Not sure if it's been mentioned, but Minnesota has never recorded a tornado in December.

Today's has a good chance of being the first time.

 

[Tarheel1]

Will be in Waterloo today and tonight! I’ll keep y’all posted with bad screenshots and info as I come across it! I’m a little nervous today , honestly! BRad P posted a whole map of iowa w/ forecasted wind gust on FB, but the colors were too dark to get a good pic, but it was crazy!

 

[NorthDFWwx]

One concern I did have about this event was moisture return, but dewpoints are already ~60°F into Iowa. That should only go up further aa the LLJ strengthens and the trough amplifies...

 

[Darklordsuperstorm]

In regards to my earlier comment on the rarity of a moderate risk that far north in December. Apparently this is the first one?

 

[Tarheel1]

If y’all get bored, just found this group onFB last week, they seem pretty legit and have a lot of followers and people posting conditions around most of IA, so check them out for mostly amateur obs!

 

[Tarheel1]

Currently , very humid, drizzly, feels like May

 

[NorthDFWwx]

Unless there's shallow low clouds I'm not seeing, there's pretty good insolation right now over SE Nebraska and SW Ioawa

 

[NorthDFWwx]

There have already been multiple reports of 85 - 105+ MPH winds in Colorado with the line of showers.

 

[Tarheel1]

Unless there's shallow low clouds I'm not seeing, there's pretty good insolation right now over SE Nebraska and SW Ioawa

It’s weird, lots of low clouds and drizzle, but 65 degrees, and peeks of sun

 

[Tarheel1]

Then there is this??

 

[NorthDFWwx]

Then there is this??View attachment 98056

It may very well end up being an overreaction in hindsight, but after what happened in KY this past weekend, better to be safe than sorry.

 

[Tarheel1]

66 and sunnier

 

[Tarheel1]

Update

 

[NorthDFWwx]

The western 2/3rds of Iowa and much of far eastern Nebraska looks to have clear skies now.

 

[Tarheel1]

The western 2/3rds of Iowa and much of far eastern Nebraska looks to have clear skies now.

Was about to post, just outside Waterloo, lost the low clouds?

 

[Tarheel1]

DT still all over it

 

[BHS1975]

Not very often that you see a moderate risk that far north in the middle of December. Yikes

It is now.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[BufordWX]

 

[NorthDFWwx]

I wonder if it will be a PDS watch...

 

[lj0109]

 

[lj0109]

1st TOR Warning of the event:

 

[BufordWX]

I don’t think this area is even under a level 1 risk area. This line has developed quickly.

 

[lj0109]

That escalated quickly...cells moving at 75MPH:

 

[NorthDFWwx]

View attachment 98087

While not PDS, still pretty high end for a TOR Watch...

 

[lj0109]

While not PDS, still pretty high end for a TOR Watch...

No doubt about it! For reasons such as this:

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
147 PM CST Wed Dec 15 2021
Clay NE-Adams NE-
147 PM CST Wed Dec 15 2021

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM CST FOR WEST
CENTRAL CLAY AND SOUTHEASTERN ADAMS COUNTIES...

At 147 PM CST, a confirmed tornado was located near Ayr, or 14 miles
south of Hastings, moving northeast at 75 mph.

 

[Tarheel1]

 

[NorthDFWwx]

 

[LovingGulfLows]

Unbelievable videos coming out of CO today.

 

[NorthDFWwx]

Unbelievable videos coming out of CO today.

He ain't giving it up to the media for free either ("DM for licensing").

The Real OG. ?

 

[Stormsfury]

The line of storms already coming in 75 to 85mph winds reported on SPC storm reports. I think the biggest story will be this becoming an extreme derecho event. Tornadoes yes, but the sheer widespread wind damage will likely be top story on this.

 

[Tarheel1]

The line of storms already coming in 75 to 85mph winds reported on SPC storm reports. I think the biggest story will be this becoming an extreme derecho event. Tornadoes yes, but the sheer widespread wind damage will likely be top story on this.

If the line is moving at 55-70mph, won’t that make the already strong winds worse??

 

[NorthDFWwx]

Looks like there's a quite a bit of CIHN across IA.

While the line should easily break the cap, the CIHN may be the saving grace that prevents more tornadic supercells from developing ahead of the line.

 

[Stormsfury]

If the line is moving at 55-70mph, won’t that make the already strong winds worse??

Yeah that can enhance already ridiculously strong downward momentum from the convection.

Speaking up, already more solid 80 to 85mph wind gusts reported. Russell, KS just had a 60 mph sustained gusts to 84mph. Another report from KS reported a metal basketball pole was broken/bent in half by strong winds.

 

[Tarheel1]

Looks like there's a quite a bit of CIHN across IA.

While the line should easily break the cap, the CIHN may be the saving grace that prevents more tornadic supercells from developing ahead of the line.

 

[BufordWX]

93 MPH wind gust reported NW of Lincoln, NE