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Tropical Major Hurricane Maria

Near Wilmington, NC, landfall on 9/26.

This isn't just a weaker Jose lingering. This is a Jose that dies.
 
0Z EPS members similar to the 12Z EPS with many hits from S FL to NC late 9/24 through 9/29 and even 2 in the Gulf. The mean is much further SW than the 0Z GEFS mean at hour 192.

Edit: Note that the timing of any potential SE US hits is quite spread out, implying a much greater than usual level of uncertainty.
 
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GaWx said:
Near Wilmington, NC, landfall on 9/26.

This isn't just a weaker Jose lingering. This is a Jose that dies.
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Yeah looks funny to me. I'm sure it will change on the next run.


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Day 10 euro 968 almost over KFAY 60-90 kt gusts along and S of I40 from RDU to ILM.

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Euro OP seems to be on the south western part of model guidance
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Fwiw the Ukie ensembles, it's after this time you would see any turn back west I believe but still at the end the spread is significant, which is to be expected, with some pointing at the EC while a good number pointing towards OTS.... (couldn't figure out how to get rid of the Jose observed track)

MOGREPS.png
 
Ukie actually north of most guidance but who knows, this is a mess..... fun to watch I guess but waiting is the hardest part lol
 
GaWx said:
This is what I just said over there about my feelings about the protection for the SE US a lingering Jose would give even if he is weak:

That is pretty much my thinking. To back this up, I have found exactly ZERO hurricanes since 1851 (yes, I looked at every year today) which came W, WNW, NW, or NNW into the SE US with a TS+ lingering to the north or NE near or within about 500 miles of the east coast of the US. So, I just don't see a hurricane coming into the SE US with another TC above it.

Even if an upper low over the SE somehow captures Maria (so highly unlikely imo with Jose lingering based on history at the very least), wouldn't it likely weaken significantly from a tropical perspective and/or gain extratropical characteristics?
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Larry, great work as usual! This seems to be a very " non-normal" tropical season! Irma broke all kinds of records and I remember vaguely some of your thoughts about Irma early on, in regards to her location in the Atlantic and hitting the US at any point . Didn't you say a 5-10% chance of hitting the US? This may just be the "one" year that breaks all the rules and has a lot of firsts?
 
Obviously this is all a crapshoot at this point, but the pattern could easily fit a SE hit again. My guess at this point would be toward the Carolinas.
 
A great poster at AW, posted a tweet from a met that said basically, there has NEVER been 2 hurricanes in one season Cat 3 or above, to pass within 75 miles of the Virgin Islands!
A season for the ages!
JB tooting his own horn this AM ! Saying he called this season in the spring! :)
 
Tarheel1 said:
Larry, great work as usual! This seems to be a very " non-normal" tropical season! Irma broke all kinds of records and I remember vaguely some of your thoughts about Irma early on, in regards to her location in the Atlantic and hitting the US at any point . Didn't you say a 5-10% chance of hitting the US? This may just be the "one" year that breaks all the rules and has a lot of firsts?
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Thanks, Mack. I actually never was as low as 5-10%. My lowest was 1 in 7 and then I said this on 8/30:

"I'm keeping odds of about 15% of hitting some part of the Conus since no more than that percentage has hit the US. So, 85% chance of recurve e of the US, dissipation, or hitting MX or Central America with most of that recurve. The only reason I don't have it in the 5%-10% range is the projected WSW bend."

http://southernwx.com/community/threads/major-hurricane-irma-part-1.227/page-7#post-39764

Anyway, Maria's track as regards the SE US remains largely hinged on Jose. Jose could be a big help but we'll have to see if he lingers.
 
I have to wonder if we won't see a farther south track at least short term, really putting the shredder in play. Maria is still booking it and getting really close to the fast flow on the other side of the Virgin Islands. I could definitely see a funneled effect into the eastern Caribbean unless Maria stregthens and gains some more northern pull.
 
GaWx said:
Thanks, Mack. I actually never was as low as 5-10%. My lowest was 1 in 7 and then I said this on 8/30:

"I'm keeping odds of about 15% of hitting some part of the Conus since no more than that percentage has hit the US. So, 85% chance of recurve e of the US, dissipation, or hitting MX or Central America with most of that recurve. The only reason I don't have it in the 5%-10% range is the projected WSW bend."

http://southernwx.com/community/threads/major-hurricane-irma-part-1.227/page-7#post-39764

Anyway, Maria's track as regards the SE US remains largely hinged on Jose. Jose could be a big help but we'll have to see if he lingers.
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So far Euro/CMC doesn't have Jose hanging around? Very interesting.
 
Maria has ingested some dry air lurking to the west and northwest of the LLC (& there's a lot more still there atm), hence intensification temporarily halted late last night and early this morning and we won't see RI in the immediate term. The LLC is nearly exposed on the western edge of the convective canopy... Unfortunately given that the southerly shear impacting the cyclone will fall to near 0 by later tonight and tomorrow, and Maria's small size, it will probably mix out this dry air faster than a canonical TC, and there won't be much to hinder the storm aside from inner core processes and the possibility for convective updrafts and inflow being hampered by the cold wake to its north left by Irma and Jose. Definitely will take any bit of good news I can at this point...
GOES16_1km_vis_201709171500_9.25_18.00_-61.75_-49.00_vis1_weathernerds.gif
 
12Z GFS: Thanks to Jose, it is still looking good for the SE US on this run barring something very unexpected.
 
Arcc said:
Jose much weaker at the surface and 500mb.
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yeah he's about 30mb weaker on the GFS, definitely took a step towards the ECMWF. If Jose doesnt get back over the Gulf stream, and instead sits over the ~20C water off southern New England its possible he dissipates entirely like the Euro shows and the weakness left by him closes up too quickly for Maria to take advantage of it and scoot OTS
 
The GFS' low MSLP bias w/ Jose has been pretty atrocious and its possible that it still may be too aggressive w/ Jose's intensity in the longer term which ultimately would implicate Maria.
Image via Tomer Burg
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12Z Ukmet shifted east to a pretty nonthreatening position with regard to the SE US (24N, 70W), which is well east of the 12Z GFS, 12Z CMC, and the 0Z Euro. Encouraging sign since that is one of the two best models for the tropics.
 
OTOH, the 12Z GEFS is a bit discouraging for the SE US because its mean is the furthest SW of the last four runs. It has the largest number of Carolina hits of those 4 as well as the first in 4 runs with both a member that landfalls on FL and another that landfalls near the GA/SC line.
 
GaWx said:
OTOH, the 12Z GEFS is a bit discouraging for the SE US because its mean is the furthest SW of the last four runs. It has the largest number of Carolina hits of those 4 as well as the first in 4 runs with both a member that landfalls on FL and another that landfalls near the GA/SC line.
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Larry,
This far out, there will always be "on the other hand" ... :cool:
Great series of post, BTW!
Best!
Phil
 
Storm5 said:
For those speaking highly of the ukmet. It might be doing well inside 48 hours but 5 days and further out it has huge problems
a03ad02cb995366c9a4244ca15333f67.jpg


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But keep in mind that this graph you're showing is just for Jose. The Ukmet sent like 4 runs in a row into FL, a horrendous error no doubt! This shows that even the best models have terrible runs. When I say 2nd best, I mean overall for the last few years and through most, if not all, timeframes through day 7. Keep in mind how well it did with Irma and Matthew! I still remember the Ukmet at day 7 being the first of the major models bringing Matthew to very near my area.
 
GaWx said:
But keep in mind that this graph you're showing is just for Jose. The Ukmet sent like 4 runs in a row into FL, a horrendous error no doubt! This shows that even the best models have terrible runs. When I say 2nd best, I mean overall for the last few years and through most, if not all, timeframes through day 7. Keep in mind how well it did with Irma and Matthew! I still remember the Ukmet at day 7 being the first of the major models bringing Matthew to very near my area.
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True, I mean all models have times when they have huge errors . But consistently, the Euro has higher verification scores.

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Recon is close to supporting a hurricane if not already 985 mb extrap

Definitely 70 mph was one barb to support a hurricane on sfmr
 
Storm5 said:
For those speaking highly of the ukmet. It might be doing well inside 48 hours but 5 days and further out it has huge problems
a03ad02cb995366c9a4244ca15333f67.jpg


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There was something wrong with what it did with Jose. It's confused about something and other mets aren't exactly sure what. It did well with Irma. This is likely due to that horrible Southern/FL solution it had held on to for so long?
 
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