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Pattern December to Remember

Myfrotho704_ said:
Never mind energy dumping energy on the eastern side of the garbage GOA ridge, probably about to SER hard View attachment 96066
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Not good at all for the SE. Maybe those from AL/Central TN and points west can maybe make this pattern work,espically in mid Dec and after,but for us,this pattern would be a disaster. Western Ridge is simply too far west and theres no blocking to supress the SE Ridge.
 
Faco Thomas said:
Not good at all for the SE. Maybe those from AL/Central TN and points west can maybe make this pattern work,espically in mid Dec and after,but for us,this pattern would be a disaster. Western Ridge is simply too far west and theres no blocking to supress the SE Ridge.
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We’re messing with the pattern around AK and leaving the vortex to long, which stunts the growth of the B.C ridge and needs up wanting to dump out west given the higher heights farther west, this has been a trend on overnight models and now, and started becoming apparent around 12z yesterday
 
I’ll hope for continued support from ensembles but these operationals are really getting ugly .. I’ll also hope we’re in a period of windshield wipe effect and we swoop the colder way in the next two days but you can’t like the way things are going bahumbug!
 
Stephenb888 said:
How come when the models were showing legit cold everyone was saying it’s too early to believe it. Now it’s showing the opposite and winter is over apparently lol
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No -NAO, pacific driven, it’s easier to dump cold out west with the pacific then here, countless times countless years we see things switch out west, last year was a exception because the blocking except for February
 
Stephenb888 said:
How come when the models were showing legit cold everyone was saying it’s too early to believe it. Now it’s showing the opposite and winter is over apparently lol
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No one is saying winter is over it’s just this early shot doesn’t look to have much bang for the buck anymore .. this can easily change we’re just looking at trends .. we can see how easily things can go right and go wrong for us, winter will and should never be “canceled” this early due to operational outputs that don’t go past mid December lol
 
Delayed but not denied! It’s only 15 days away, again! BE9C07A5-C475-4D70-8419-DBEC2A372A03.png
 
Fwiw, this is what the NC Piedmont + Coastal Plain standardized seasonal snowfall anomaly looks like from the late 19th century through the first half of the 20th century. Curious to see where 1959-60 stacks up, certainly going to give 1935-36 a run for its money.

Screen Shot 2021-11-27 at 11.37.35 AM.png
 
I’d honestly much rather torch for the first part of December or even most of it. I worry about starting off December with massive cold fronts and then flipping to warm to start off January when that’s our best time for snow average wise. I know a cold December doesn’t necessarily mean a warm January and vise versa but it does seem like when we are cold in late December and early January that the warmth ends up coming to us at the worst time. Just don’t give me the 2016-2017 winter #worst winter ever.
 
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