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Tropical Hurricane Jose

while we wait anyone know why Ryan left weatherbell? I see he is hoping to have his new site up and running very soon, just curious if he left to start his own site (which I thought weatherbell was his) or internal problems there... the more pay sites could result in more affordable options?
 
metwannabe said:
while we wait anyone know why Ryan left weatherbell? I see he is hoping to have his new site up and running very soon, just curious if he left to start his own site (which I thought weatherbell was his) or internal problems there... the more pay sites could result in more affordable options?
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did you ever read the cross tweets between Ryan and JB - there sure seemed to be some buried/subtle rancor; pure speculation, but based on the "skills" (for lack of a better word) necessary for my day job (which is closed until Monday due to Irma, btw) that's my 6th and 7th sense ... FWIW
 
pcbjr said:
did you ever read the cross tweets between Ryan and JB - there sure seemed to be some buried/subtle rancor; pure speculation, but based on the "skills" (for lack of a better word) necessary for my day job (which is closed until Monday due to Irma, btw) that's my 6th and 7th sense ... FWIW
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Now that you mention it I do vaguely recall those tweets, although I don't recall reading that many of them....maybe just comments on here. Yeah not trying to derail the thread but can you imagine working with JB? Lol moving on..... unlike the Euro
 
GaWx said:
Based on the early 12Z Euro maps, it is unlikely that this run will get close to the SE US.
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Would not be surprised to see it a little further west then it's 0z run however, which in reality could occur and still not get close to the SE US
 
metwannabe said:
Now that you mention it I do vaguely recall those tweets, although I don't recall reading that many of them....maybe just comments on here. Yeah not trying to derail the thread but can you imagine working with JB? Lol moving on..... unlike the Euro
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There was a misinterpretation of one of those tweets as some thought that Ryan was taking a shot at JB but he actually wasn't and clarified that he wasn't.

Meanwhile, later maps agree about Jose likely missing the SE US though not as far offshore as the 0Z Euro and it is moving very slowly
 
GaWx said:
There was a misinterpretation of one of those tweets as some thought that Ryan was taking a shot at JB but he actually wasn't and clarified that he wasn't.

Meanwhile, later maps agree about Jose likely missing the SE US though not as far offshore as the 0Z Euro and it is moving very slowly
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^^This I do recall now....

So you got maps? What hour? Tropical Tidbits is @48 and on Weatherbell stuck @42
 
metwannabe said:
^^This I do recall now....

So you got maps? What hour? Tropical Tidbits is @48 and on Weatherbell stuck @42
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Delete this if appropriate, and I don't want to start a conversation that goes nowhere!
There were a number of subtle tweets going back 6- 8 weeks; of course the big one was publicly "misinterpreted" - that's how a company store maintains its public facade ...
 
Correct me if I'm wrong this is a decent shift west....no?
ecmwf_mslp_uv850_seus_5.png
 
Looks like the eps shifted ever so slightly west also but does not appear it supports the op run of a landfalling system in the NE
 
Storm5 said:
Side note Euro has another storm just north of the islands late in the period

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Yeah i noticed that, and the upper level pattern thanks in part to the recurvature of Talim in the western Pacific is unfavorable-very unfavorable to early recurvatures in the central-western Atlantic with a monster ridge sitting over southeastern Canada, a feature that's often prevalent during tropical cyclone landfalls on the US...
ecmwf-ens_z500a_atl_10.png
 
ForsythSnow said:
New cone is not as hard of a turn. The NE may end up getting trouble if there is a trend this way.
204017_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
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From NHC..... "The official track forecast is similar to its predecessor and is about in the middle of the reliable guidance suite."

and this would be?? Lol
 
The highly amplified pattern over the North Pacific-North American sectors late next week is traceable back to the recurvature of Talim in the Western Pacific... Unlike Sanvu, NWP models have become more impressed with Talim and his extratropical transition the next several days and this has major implications downstream. The excess heat and momentum deposition onto the right entrance region of the Pacific jet from Talim is effectively helping to excite a rapidly eastward propagating packet of Rossby Waves that ultimately results in large scale ridging over southeastern Canada and New England. This ridge that becomes highly amplified as the Rossby Wave packet nears, and halts the progress of Jose OTS forcing him back towards New England & the Mid Atlantic. We need to closely monitor the progress of Talim's extratropical transition and impact on the midlatitude waveguide (jet stream), because this could impact the steering pattern around Jose and potentially any other TCs that to try form in the east-central Atlantic within the next week or so
 
I'm starting to think somewhere between midatlantic and NE going to be dealing with Jose, GFS trends...
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NHC acknowledging westward shift...
Since the guidance has shifted left, the new official track forecast is west of the previous one, but now lays on the eastern side of the guidance envelope. I would prefer to see more run to run consistency before committing to a farther left track at this time

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EPS also shifted west but still stays offshore....
c24ef7ce9b7b693cc45ddf0903b82293.jpg


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metwannabe said:
NHC acknowledging westward shift...
Since the guidance has shifted left, the new official track forecast is west of the previous one, but now lays on the eastern side of the guidance envelope. I would prefer to see more run to run consistency before committing to a farther left track at this time

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Yeah the outflow induced (via Irma) upper level ridge north of Jose is stronger than forecast, what a shocker... Not.
 
As metwannabe alluded to earlier, Jose is tracking well to the south of the GFS, CMC, ECMWF, and even the UKMET's 6-12 hour forecast points at the moment, wouldn't be surprised if NWP shifts west yet again at 12z as a result...
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