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Tropical Hurricane Jose

The Euro is MUCH closer to the coast with Jose than the other models/NHC... kind of interesting

at 96 they're hundreds of miles apart and on the Euro its freaky close to Long Island while the GFS has already moved east of Cape Cod
 
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Jose seems to be getting stronger than initially predicted at this point. He will be at 90 mph at 11, and the Hurricane Hunters found winds stronger than that in their flight. What could this mean for Jose? I think it will result in a more northern movement and have less of a curve, but I have no idea if that would happen or not.
 
NHC seems to be getting closer to showing a loop, but I don't think they are certain. Jose also seems to be a bit west of the track.

The hurricane is moving northward at 8 kt on the west side of a
subtropical ridge. This motion is expected to continue for 2 to 3
days while the steering pattern persists. Thereafter, a trough
currently over central Canada is expected to move eastward and
should cause Jose to turn to the northeast and east at a slow
forward speed in the 3- to 5-day time frame. The NHC track
forecast has been shifted slightly to the left of the previous one,
mainly because of the more westward initial position.
145546_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 
This has got to be one of the most interesting and yet frustrating synoptic patterns think I've ever seen reference to TC's. If the euro is correct I eventually get a visit from tropical storm Jose

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Webberweather53 said:
Jose is very lackluster atm, hardly any flight level winds that get to 65 knots, much less surface winds that get much above 55 KTS...
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Winds are either in the further out parts or Jose is about to die. Meanwhile, Lee is looking a bit better, but still bad. That storm may hold out longer than we think.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Winds are either in the further out parts or Jose is about to die. Meanwhile, Lee is looking a bit better, but still bad. That storm may hold out longer than we think.
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Jose looks sub-tropicalish or some type of hybrid system, I'd be willing to bet the strongest winds are away from the center... going to be interesting to see if it can regain the strength models have been suggesting, the ec depends on it for once
 
ForsythSnow said:
GFS initializing Jose lower and strengthening it. I think that we are being deceived unless he somehow strengthens, which given the organization, seems impossible.
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20 mb drop in 24 hours on the GFS, seen this before.... yeah don't be deceived by the GFS and it's insane pressures which obviously has a factor on Maria's future track
 
Is there really hurricane force winds being observed in Jose right now? It looks like an extra-tropical storm/typical Nor'Easter. It's clearly funneling in a lot of dry air on the southside.
 
BHS1975 said:
He's stalled out. Was that forcasted?


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I don't know if a stall was forecast...but I did see on a number of model runs, Jose backtracking from the NORTHEAST into VA/NC.

It's been such an odd storm...:confused:
 
A stall wasn't forecast and the turn back from the NE was much later, did a little loop off New England on the models showing that.... who knows what Jose is going to do
 
Nam might exit Jose stage right. Elongating the system at 45

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Arcc said:
The real reason Jose won't go away, secret government tractor beam. Trump really is controlling the weather.

GOES16_abi_conus_20170919_025720_band08.jpg
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That's damn funny lol.
Seriously the biggest thing with Jose is if it sticks around in what form will it stick around and for how long. IMO the only way it hangs around is if it can maintain some sort of tropical characteristics. If it can't it succumbs and the ridge will bully it right out of existence.
 
Jose, recon and the NHC are confusing me. Jose looks stalled, yet they say he is moving North? If nay motion, it's east, but recon had him going west some last night? Can we just get rid of Jose so we can stop going insane? Lol I also swear it looks more tropical today with convection wrapping around to the SW.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Jose, recon and the NHC are confusing me. Jose looks stalled, yet they say he is moving North? If nay motion, it's east, but recon had him going west some last night? Can we just get rid of Jose so we can stop going insane? Lol
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I hope not. The last thing I'd want is for Jose to be gone. If Jose had not still been there....well, I don't want to think about it. Jose can stick around as long as he wants from my perspective.
 
GaWx said:
I hope not. The last thing I'd want is for Jose to be gone. If Jose had not still been there....well, I don't want to think about it. Jose can stick around as long as he wants from my perspective.
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Definitely true, but if he is going to stay around, hopefully he can stop being so confusing and look more like a hurricane, or at least choose a direction. Recon is back in there still finding just below hurricane force winds meanwhile. Reading the discussion the NHC said it being a cat 1 was generous, so maybe a downgrade is coming soon.
 
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