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Pattern Novemburrr

It's actually a crappy setup. Never trust ULL's from the SW unless they're large and disorganized.
I always think the opposite.. I suppose you can never trust them but more often than not they are going to surprise you with something .. obviously we don’t know what we’re dealing with this far away but seems fun
 
I always think the opposite.. I suppose you can never trust them but more often than not they are going to surprise you with something .. obviously we don’t know what we’re dealing with this far away but seems fun
Well, verbatim of course. You really can't trust anything 5 days out.
 
It’s more then a week out but this is the 2nd time in the last 4 days or so I’ve seen a fantasy storm in Tennessee for this time period. At least the models look better the last few runs as far as cold goes.

3FF0A9AD-0118-4D3C-AF4F-97F57ED5D5A0.png
 
GFS & Canadian look pretty strung out w/ this upper trough that exits from my part of the world in a few days and is more progressive in the northern stream (as usual), whereas the Euro is slower + more amped and gives folks in eastern NC some hope of seeing a little snow for late this weekend. The ICON looks completely lost w/ the upper low getting stuck over the Baja (almost certainly not happening).

More times than not, the ECMWF tends to come out on top in these kinds of situations in the medium range, but need to see more run-run consistency and if the 12z EPS backs it up before I dive head first into the ECMWF camp.

GFS

gfs-deterministic-conus-vort500_z500-8100800.png


ECMWF

ecmwf-deterministic-conus-vort500_z500-8100800.png
 
Currently 52 and climbing , much warmer than what short range models had today’s high as! Let’s go baby. I like the 10 day, sunny and mild overall, still mostly cold next few days though.
 
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