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Pattern October Thread

smast16 said:
JFC... Did he really just parade a 600+ hr +PNA? Because that ever happens.

And they gave him a bluecheck? SMDH
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The ridge isn't a bad idea we are entering that window where some pac ridging becomes more likely in a nina year. The amplitude/location along with how the BN heights across AK evolve are the question
 
Ouch.
Hopefully in the next few years I’ll have the archive of winter storms for NC fully complete, with the longer term goal of making it into a gridded dataset that’s been quality controlled so I can take a much more detailed, closer look at things like this.
Started back up on it again this past weekend, just very time consuming to keep track of everything and manually check each and every observation individually. Oth, there’s so much bad/spurious and missing data (some of which really isn’t missing) that needs to be thoroughly sorted through, I don’t think there’s an easier way to do this.
 
tennessee storm said:
That gulf Alaska low just won’t move out… that’s going be a serious problem
Afraid heading to to winter . Get prepared to get screwed by the pacific , it’s a hot mess for sure
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I agree that the Pacific is very likely going to lead to a mild winter for the SE. But calling this a “Serious” problem is a bit melodramatic, isn’t it? It sounds like you’re intentionally trying to rile up cold winter lovers. Plus you’d probably like it yourself based on your preferences if I’m reading those preferences correctly. So for you, it wouldn’t be a problem at all, right? Unless you’re playing both sides.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Incoming ice box pattern ? View attachment 92542
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I wish I could believe that cutting off and slight retrograde off the WC but it's so easy to get burned. I did notice on the eps plots there was a really chilly cluster post D10 so there's some support for it. With how the pac has been so active and progressive its hard to get on board
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Geez that source region roast did a number I was expecting way more BN to our NE with such a deep TPVView attachment 92543View attachment 92544
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Still not really tapping much arctic stuff the wave is more polar pacific and any influx of cold is cut off. I thought the wave moving through Canada after d10 might drive south and give us some legit stuff but the ridge got flat and wide and it mainly goes into new England gfs_Td2m_us_59.png
 
SD said:
Still not really tapping much arctic stuff the wave is more polar pacific and any influx of cold is cut off. I thought the wave moving through Canada after d10 might drive south and give us some legit stuff but the ridge got flat and wide and it mainly goes into new England View attachment 92545
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Still regardless dew points like this will make any air crispy to the touch and will still certainly feel like fall around here .. pleasant afternoons in the 70s with low dew points golly that’s amazing
 
Interesting to note that the models aren’t too terribly different with how the evolution of these troughs and ridges set up the major difference is clearly a massive upper level low that gets caught under the ridging which traps it and continues cool air intrusions into our area.. the thing to look at going forward is do we keep this upper level low or does it go poof like the euro shows.. regardless the euro does rapidly build riding near the west coast and I would assume we could see reflection in the later portion of the euro with some troughing our way although nothing significant 483149E4-A8A8-4493-A156-E1E90814FC3A.jpeg8318E84E-FE6E-452E-8B92-2D6DB2BD6154.jpeg
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Interesting to note that the models aren’t too terribly different with how the evolution of these troughs and ridges set up the major difference is clearly a massive upper level low that gets caught under the ridging which traps it and continues cool air intrusions into our area.. the thing to look at going forward is do we keep this upper level low or does it go poof like the euro shows.. regardless the euro does rapidly build riding near the west coast and I would assume we could see reflection in the later portion of the euro with some to roughing out way although nothing significant View attachment 92561View attachment 92562
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GFS amped euro not amped and more fast I say euro
 
GaWx said:
Easy. Free SouthernWx working cruise for any members interested to drop as much dry ice as possible on the Maritime Continent. Maybe we can get Mack to go on another cruise, but he'll have to work during part of it.
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Had a feeling that look was gonna pop back up I just don’t like the way that trough is sitting in the pacific if it decides to propagate east any bit we get ridged
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Had a feeling that look was gonna pop back up I just don’t like the way that trough is sitting in the pacific if it decides to propagate east any bit we get ridged
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gfs_chi200_global_30.png
:( P1 in fall stinks

The mean looks a little better and might be part of the wash out of the pac trough later in the rungfs-ens_chi200_global_27.png

But we are likely to either extend the jet or move the trough east in the extended and probably ridge the east heading into Halloween.
 
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