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Tropical 2021 hurricane season thread

So 18z GFS has back to back storms for NYC area!???6EF6903F-257C-4A95-9625-1B9FCDE38C51.pngFBBE2303-C82E-4C4C-926A-9193BDAAD159.png
 
Next weekend might be slightly interesting here in eastern NC depending on this Bahama wave, then there is this.....most of those are at or below the 60/20 aka Herberts Box benchmark for a SE hit though a OTS solution is also very possible at that location obviously....several big NC hits missed the islands to the north by a fair bit but still hit NC.......

us_cyclone-en-087-0_euro_2021091112_15845_481_240.png
 
Given the pattern that's set up, I lack faith in a strong CV storm storm making it all the way to the East Coast. I think any strong or major hurricane that threatens the US will form in the Caribbean or Gulf, as well as troughs that leave behind energy/waves in the Western Atlantic. I think pieces of energy from CV waves will likely run into Haiti or South and Central American territory/coastal waters, and then re-emerge over the western Caribbean or Gulf in conjunction with another weak wave or Upper level low. We've seen this happen 5 times already, but I think October will offer a greater opportunity.

At 240 hours, models are starting to hint at a storm in the Western Caribbean around where Ida formed. You can see it on the GEFS members that go past 240 hours, and at the end of 18z operational run. I can imagine a scenario like the ones illustrated below.

ac135ddc-e8bc-4b8f-a8e7-fb4c424213b9.gif
 
GFS has a big long track cane crossing the ATL this run looks like its the wave that comes off Africa well south around Monday, starts off real low but turns north and end after a little tease turn back NW it turns out.....


1631920507187.png
 
The latest storm on record back to 1851 to have genesis east of 55W in the MDR and to later hit the CONUS is September 25th: storm #9 of 1893

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1893.png

Next latest E of 55W geneses were both on 9/21: Inez of 1966 and Lili of 2002. Then Gloria 9/16/1985 and Georges of 9/15/1998.

After 9/25, all geneses on record back to 1851 that later hit the CONUS were W of 55 W. So, when looking at model consensus with the lack of CV threats on them now, climo now says that the CONUS will very likely be safe from any genesis E of 55 W the rest of this season. So, potential remaining threatening genesis locations are mainly just E of or near the LAs, the Caribbean (mainly W half), the GOM, and the SW Atlantic north of the GAs to off the east coast.
 
GaWx said:
The latest storm on record back to 1851 to have genesis east of 55W in the MDR and to later hit the CONUS is September 25th: storm #9 of 1893

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1893.png

Next latest E of 55W geneses were both on 9/21: Inez of 1966 and Lili of 2002. Then Gloria 9/16/1985 and Georges of 9/15/1998.

After 9/25, all geneses on record back to 1851 that later hit the CONUS were W of 55 W. So, when looking at model consensus with the lack of CV threats on them now, climo now says that the CONUS will very likely be safe from any genesis E of 55 W the rest of this season. So, potential remaining threatening genesis locations are mainly just E of or near the LAs, the Caribbean (mainly W half), the GOM, and the SW Atlantic north of the GAs to off the east coast.
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Dollar to a doughnut, the next "homegrown" will be a Hogtown thunderstorm that goes rogue, moves west to Levy County, continues and spins itself up in the eastern Gulf ... the sorts of Alachua t-storms lately are like mini-canes anyways, so why not ... ?
 
NoSnowATL said:
Yea I’m sure they can find 4 more thunderstorms to name. This year has sucked.
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Other than Grace and Ida and Larry to a point yeah it's been a weird season for sure

But I don't think it's over by any means the Atlantic is actually in an unfavorable phase apparently and has still produced several storms and theres always a second peak in October usually especially with no El nino. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a Wilma or a Michael come at some point
 
I find it hard to believe that in a borderline La Nina there wont be in the W Caribbean at least one H, probably major, especially with SST's there now the warmest of the season and now warming even further due to a lack of storminess expected there the next 10+ days:

9/23/21 SSTs: although it has cooled some along the N Gulf coast and off N FL due to the cooler air, it is now near the warmest of the season W Caribbean to the FL Straits and also off SW FL:

ocllNd2.gif
 
GaWx said:
I find it hard to believe that in a borderline La Nina there wont be in the W Caribbean at least one H, probably major, especially with SST's there now the warmest of the season and now warming even further due to a lack of storminess expected there the next 10+ days:

9/23/21 SSTs: although it has cooled some along the N Gulf coast and off N FL due to the cooler air, it is now near the warmest of the season W Caribbean to the FL Straits and also off SW FL:

ocllNd2.gif
Click to expand...

The end of the 18z gfs was crazy but obviously ot gonna be right either.
 
This will clear the name list if the two red circles behind Sam form the orange circle is ex Peterreceived_444060963692295.jpeg
 
12Z GEFS and other models have been suggesting a "Ridge Over Troubled Waters" pattern for the second week in Oct. SE, esp. FL, will need to watch that period if that verifies per Nina climo, especially coming from below.
 
GaWx said:
12Z GEFS and other models have been suggesting a "Ridge Over Troubled Waters" pattern for the second week in Oct. SE, esp. FL, will need to watch that period if that verifies per Nina climo, especially coming from below.
Click to expand...


After noting the above, the following came out with member TCs:


hj193Qa.png
 
this is the 06Z and 12Z Euro ens plots highlighting the post GAWX just made, basically nothing to a few weak systems, and matching a bit with the GFS though further east....

06Z

us_cyclone-en-087-0_euro_2021092906_15844_481_240.png

12Z

us_cyclone-en-087-0_euro_2021092912_15844_481_240.png
 
Downeastnc said:
this is the 06Z and 12Z Euro ens plots highlighting the post GAWX just made, basically nothing to a few weak systems, and matching a bit with the GFS though further east....

06Z

View attachment 91721

12Z

View attachment 91722
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The 12Z EPS is far less active. But just to clarify, the 12Z EPS map you showed is only through day 10. It gets somewhat more active afterward
though the 12Z EPS is much quieter from its 51 members with only ~15% with TCs vs 50% for the GEFS:

rRfRtb2.png
 
OTOH, unlike the fairly active GEFS runs, the 12Z EPS for the same time is very quiet, especially keeping in mind 51 members vs only 31 for the GEFS! Which is closer to reality?

Sk10lk8.png
 
And still lots of Happy Hour action way out at 360: :eek: So, the Happy hour reputation is firmly intact! Get your shut-eye now while you can!

55gcsyJ.png
 
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GaWx said:
And still lots of Happy Hour action way out at 360: :eek: So, the Happy hour reputation is firmly intact! Get your shut-eye now while you can!

55gcsyJ.png
Click to expand...
There must be some sort of bias with the GFS and enhanced tropical activity in October. This happens every year.
 
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