Pattern Swamptember 2021

[Myfrotho704_]

RIP

I seemingly get a sinus infection every month sometimes twice a month its getting tiring especially the fevers that come with them

 

[cd2play]

I like View attachment 91154

Does it qualify as an "oof"?

 

[SD]

@NickyBGuarantee the rap has got you

 

[SD]

15z RAP
RAP Radar at 8pm

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Yeah there’s going to be some problems later today

 

[Tarheel1]

The temperature and dew point drop is incredible .. 10-13 degrees drop in an hour in like places .. this will be a situation where the high temp occurs at midnight at in the 70s but then you wake up and it’s in the 50s and upper 40s for some in western NC Thursday morning View attachment 91147View attachment 91148

It’ll still hit 65-70 in Greenville

 

[smast16]

I hope so I wouldn't mind being in one of the corridors that likely walk away with 2-4 inches by Thursday. Unfortunately like always for every 2-4 inch corridor there is going to be a .25-.5 close by

I think we know where the <0.5" will be.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Well that’s not good, let’s go ahead and torch our source regions

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Well that’s not good, let’s go ahead and torch our source regions View attachment 91166View attachment 91167View attachment 91168

If it still looks like this in November I’ll be more worried .. I’m not really looking for anything helpful in October

 

[Bham 99]

I seemingly get a sinus infection every month sometimes twice a month its getting tiring especially the fevers that come with them

I've got that same problem.. I keep putting off going to the ear nose and throat doctor because I know that I need surgery and I don't have time..

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Source region weenie roast

 

[Rain Cold]

No red here find red in Canada. no red in Canada find red in Siberia cross polar flow toast. No red in Siberia find red in outer space sun red giant explosion no cold this fall sorry losers

 

[Rain Cold]

At least it's going to rain for a while.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Source regions should start seeing snowpack build up the next few weeks that’s not a good look for snow lol

 

[SD]

No red here find red in Canada. no red in Canada find red in Siberia cross polar flow toast. No red in Siberia find red in outer space sun red giant explosion no cold this fall sorry losers

Anti wunnie roast in Russia

 

[Rain Cold]

Anti wunnie roast in RussiaView attachment 91173

Source region back in biz

 

[SD]

Source region back in biz

Judah Cohen rn

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Source region back in biz

Really cold air out of Russia crossing over bare muddy Canadian grounds will give us our lovely 33 and rain !

 

[LickWx]

Anti wunnie roast in RussiaView attachment 91173

Weenie toast in North Weenielina though!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Anti wunnie roast in RussiaView attachment 91173

Lol

 

[LickWx]

Judah Cohen rn
View attachment 91174

Is it too early for the October snow anomaly index of his?

 

[Rain Cold]

Really cold air out of Russia crossing over bare muddy Canadian grounds will give us our lovely 33 and rain !

Pretty much everything gives us 33 and rain.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Pretty much everything gives us 33 and rain.

Good panthers season = good winter

 

[Brent]

Might need jeans.

I ended up wearing shorts but I did find some this morning before I left ?

It's fairly warm in the sun now although the breeze at times is a whoa

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Hrrr still holding up a decent severe wx threat, given the small but curved Hodographs a isolated tornado or 2 is possible, with damaging winds the main threat

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Wonder if we can crank out enough instability with this look with cyclonic/NW flow aloft, might be to late tho

 

[SD]

Wonder if we can crank out enough instability with this look with cyclonic/NW flow aloft, might be to late tho View attachment 91180View attachment 91181

That's a strong look too get wedged tbh

 

[Myfrotho704_]

We try…

 

[Chazwin]

Source region weenie roast View attachment 91170View attachment 91171

Yeah, but look at Alaska and the NW Yukon… that’s really where you want to watch for cold air to build up in the early fall and they have had a very cool summer.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Ive know ive already mentioned that HRRR run earlier ^ but there’s a time between 22z-01z where the low level jet picks up and 0-6km shear picks up in response to the digging -tilt trough, low level shear is still somewhat weak but there’s a decent overlap in 1500-2000 joules of SBcape around I-77 east and a increasing low level jet/increasing jet streak aloft at the right exit, wouldn’t shock me if there’s a few tornado warnings on those storms, especially if there’s more sun prior to these storms and Low level lapse rates aren’t to meager

 

[tennessee storm]

Yeah, but look at Alaska and the NW Yukon… that’s really where you want to watch for cold air to build up in the early fall and they have had a very cool summer.

Yeah but most time Alaska is cold we usually torch also …. Be honest

 

[LickWx]

Yeah, but look at Alaska and the NW Yukon… that’s really where you want to watch for cold air to build up in the early fall and they have had a very cool summer.

Don’t we want ridging in that region though ?

 

[Chazwin]

Yeah but most time Alaska is cold we usually torch also …. Be honest

That is the case during the winter typically, but right now you want to see cold air building in that region and then it will begin spreading further east into Canada as the fall progresses. That region of Alaska and NW Yukon has been extremely warm during the summer and early fall for the last few years and his really slowed the cold air buildup across Canada. The last 3 times those regions have had as cool a summer and early fall as this year was 2014, 2015, and 2017… all 3 of which ended up as at least decent winters for the southeast. Now the other part is getting the jet to transfer that cold south and east… which we should have periods of in the first half of the winter based on Niña climo

 

[Chazwin]

Don’t we want ridging in that region though ?

Look at the post I just put up before I saw your comment. The troughs being there right now help to build cold air.

 

[JHS]

Ive know ive already mentioned that HRRR run earlier ^ but there’s a time between 22z-01z where the low level jet picks up and 0-6km shear picks up in response to the digging -tilt trough, low level shear is still somewhat weak but there’s a decent overlap in 1500-2000 joules of SBcape around I-77 east and a increasing low level jet/increasing jet streak aloft at the right entrance, wouldn’t shock me if there’s a few tornado warnings on those storms, especially if there’s more sun prior to these storms and Low level lapse rates aren’t to meager View attachment 91190View attachment 91191View attachment 91192

GSP agrees with this. They mention a window close to sunset in their far eastern zones for stronger storms. Basically from Chester and Statesville and east.

 

[NorthDFWwx]

Overachieving by several degrees this afternoon. Currently 87*F at DFW.

 

[Ward Cleaver]

I’m at 0.67” of rain today with more on the way. Most rain I’ve had since August 26. Only 1.39” for the entire month of September.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

1.46 in the bucket since midnight, thankfully not near as much as might have thought based on models yesterday. Currently heavy mist/fog and 62 degrees. Fall has arrived.