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Tropical Hurricane Larry

Snowfan

Snowfan

El Nina stinks
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Satellite-derived wind data and satellite imagery indicate that an
area of low pressure has formed over the far eastern Tropical
Atlantic in association with a tropical wave that recently moved off
the west coast of Africa. Environmental conditions are conducive
for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within
the next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Click to expand...
A new invest has been designated this afternoon.
 
Euro loves it some 90L.....some of those tracks could be trouble if they miss a trough and head back west, very Florencee feel to some of those tracks....

us_cyclone-en-087-0_euro_2021083012_15845_481_240.png
 
This to me is the most pivotal time in 90L early development. It really starts to form on that southern end but then this is the moment the northern end also starts to develop. That opens the avenue for quick escape. If this forms further south without that northern end of the monsoon trough trying to develop the western shifts in the models are possible IMO.
 

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18Z EPS 144 (end of run): All 51 members are still recurving with already a NW to NNW movement by ~hour 120. And this includes those members moving W to WNW pretty far south initially in the eastern Atlantic. Granted, the mean is a bit further west than the prior runs. But still there's more than enough upper troughing coming into the NE US that follows Ida which all serve to keep the WAR quite weak for the next 7-10 days and thus enough steering to allow for a recurve well OTS with regard to the SE US.

Nothing is ever close to being set in stone this far in advance in the tropics. So, it obviously is still worth monitoring. But I continue to like the odds a lot right now.


Also, Bermuda, Canada, and even the NE US are in somewhat more danger, especially Bermuda. But that can be addressed later.


ecmen_18_mslps_ta_h_0144.png

*Edited to clarify that I'm mainly talking about the SE US, not necessarily other areas like the NE US, Canada, and certainly Bermuda.
 
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Already at 102 the icon shows a weaker Katie and a stronger ridge and even though it's not significant 90L is further SW this run.
 
0Z UKMET: gets it down to 960 mb moving NW well NE of the Lesser Antilles

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 12.1N 27.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.09.2021 36 12.1N 27.4W 1006 31
0000UTC 02.09.2021 48 12.4N 31.6W 1003 36
1200UTC 02.09.2021 60 12.7N 35.8W 1000 42
0000UTC 03.09.2021 72 12.9N 39.7W 997 43
1200UTC 03.09.2021 84 13.6N 43.2W 991 47
0000UTC 04.09.2021 96 15.0N 46.1W 983 55
1200UTC 04.09.2021 108 16.6N 48.8W 974 58
0000UTC 05.09.2021 120 18.7N 51.0W 969 62
1200UTC 05.09.2021 132 20.8N 53.4W 968 58
0000UTC 06.09.2021 144 22.8N 55.5W 960 69

Edit: 0Z Euro also goes fishing.
 
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metwannabe said:
The trend has certainly been west, still think no way it gets to the SE but Bermuda for sure in play and seeing some of those west bending members makes you think the NE or Canada not out of it yet.
Click to expand...

I think the SE is still possible, a few more west shifts and all of a sudden we are talking just north of the islands, or just east of the Bahamas, the spread is just getting bigger, this is classic evolution of models recurving to soon being sniffed out.....that does not mean I am saying this is coming far enough west to hit but the way this is unfolding is how we see things evolve when a early modeled recurve ends up being a legit threat....
 
metwannabe said:
The trend has certainly been west, still think no way it gets to the SE but Bermuda for sure in play and seeing some of those west bending members makes you think the NE or Canada not out of it yet.
Click to expand...
If it were to stay weak and South through D5/6/7 it would be big trouble for the EC. As is with the early strengthening in most models its likely to get well north becoming a problem for Bermuda and SE Canada
 
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