accu35
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Hour north of Mobile Al
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Tropical Hurricane Ida
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
BufordWX
Member
Take it for what it is right now, but both the HWRF and HMON have this as a hurricane by Friday night as it is entering the gulf.
accu35
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Same location as the 18z gfs as well. God, I hope we get some wind shear from 95e next week to hender 99l, because if not this is gonna be a monster
pcbjr
Member
It could be ... or not ... hold the horses in the corral until there's something to saddle up for ...
Shaggy
Member
That spin around 76W and 14ishN is really getting is stuff together quickly.
pcbjr
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accu35
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??? Post of the day!
BufordWX
Member
Well the HWRF is certainly interested right now.
tennessee storm
Member
Things could actually become quite serious on this system here …. Has major hurricane hitting somewhere along gulf written with this one
pcbjr
Member
I actually think the faster solution is favored here. The flow is moving quickly until after landfall. If it's closer to Cuba and then into the GOM. NOLA might get nailed.
Brent
Member
I have never seen key messages for a disturbance
HugeSnowStick
Member
Seriously, you are a total drama queen......
accu35
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accu35
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My wife tells me that all the time lol!!
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
I think we know where this ends up based on the trends. Houston bound yesterday, eastern LA today. Lots of time on the clock.
accu35
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Only 4 days left if it hit Sunday.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Realistically everywhere from the Florida Panhandle to South Texas is the range at this point but the main focus looks like Louisiana at the moment. Whether some upper patter shifts it further East or back west has yet to be seen but we don't have over a week before landfall so this will be a very short time for people to prepare.
Henry2326
Member
The symmetry in the models got their attention just like it did us.
Brent
Member
EPS hasn't ruled anyone out
Tornadocane
Member
Holy Shite. This is about to ignite.
She's trying to pop. This time tomorrow or early Friday. This will probably be a tropical storm..
Brent
Member
Recon tomorrow afternoon may be very interesting
At the very least I'm expecting a PTC but them finding a TD or TS wouldn't surprise me
At the very least I'm expecting a PTC but them finding a TD or TS wouldn't surprise me
Jessy89
Member
This one got my full attention. Told my wife earlier I felt like this would be a cat 3 or stronger. Hitting the United States somewhere between Texas and Mississippi
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Last nights 00z runs: 
vs. tonight’s 00z runs:
vs. tonight’s 00z runs:
Brent
Member
GFS on SUNDAY absolutely crazy how fast this may escalate
Brent
Member
CMC New Orleans
Ouch. I think if it continues to get some structure overnight we should see PTC at 5am tomorrow
0Z UKMET: LA vs 12Z at TX
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 23.2N 86.0W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.08.2021 60 23.2N 86.0W 1007 31
0000UTC 29.08.2021 72 25.0N 87.9W 1003 36
1200UTC 29.08.2021 84 26.7N 89.8W 999 39
0000UTC 30.08.2021 96 28.2N 91.2W 990 49
1200UTC 30.08.2021 108 29.5N 91.9W 978 60
0000UTC 31.08.2021 120 30.8N 92.1W 981 39
1200UTC 31.08.2021 132 32.5N 92.1W 983 30
0000UTC 01.09.2021 144 33.3N 91.7W 990 25
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 23.2N 86.0W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.08.2021 60 23.2N 86.0W 1007 31
0000UTC 29.08.2021 72 25.0N 87.9W 1003 36
1200UTC 29.08.2021 84 26.7N 89.8W 999 39
0000UTC 30.08.2021 96 28.2N 91.2W 990 49
1200UTC 30.08.2021 108 29.5N 91.9W 978 60
0000UTC 31.08.2021 120 30.8N 92.1W 981 39
1200UTC 31.08.2021 132 32.5N 92.1W 983 30
0000UTC 01.09.2021 144 33.3N 91.7W 990 25
Definitely looks like the spaghetti models got a hair cut … looks like US threat almost guaranteed
Ugly round two with the storm after this one … Texas problem?