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Tropical Hurricane Ida

Louisiana in trouble again for now and the models are very far apart in the long range. GFS keeps it moving and goes up over New England while it appears the euro hooks it hard east and re-emerge it off the SE coast of NC/SC
 
My goodness.



200wh.conus.png
 
Just throwing this out there and not directed at anyone particular, just general observation but when you post a comment about xyz model run is west or east, a little more info and context goes a long way. For instance, the 6z GFS was further east from it's 0z run which meant instead of a Morgan City, La (or just SW of there) LF it now shows a Nola direct hit, still in La obviously.

And that's a strong ridge anchored over the Carolina's, this thing ain't going much further east than that (landfall) imho, even if the northern most formation occurs.
 
metwannabe said:
Just throwing this out there and not directed at anyone particular, just general observation but when you post a comment about xyz model run is west or east, a little more info and context goes a long way. For instance, the 6z GFS was further east from it's 0z run which meant instead of a Morgan City, La (or just SW of there) LF it now shows a Nola direct hit, still in La obviously.

And that's a strong ridge anchored over the Carolina's, this thing ain't going much further east than that (landfall) imho, even if the northern most formation occurs.
Click to expand...

An image of the run would be nice, too.
 
You can see on the GEFS that even the northern most formation/track in the GOM bends west thanks to that ridge and heads towards La. Man they need to really start preparations, this could go from a name to major in a matter of hours

1629980641235.png
 
metwannabe said:
Just throwing this out there and not directed at anyone particular, just general observation but when you post a comment about xyz model run is west or east, a little more info and context goes a long way. For instance, the 6z GFS was further east from it's 0z run which meant instead of a Morgan City, La (or just SW of there) LF it now shows a Nola direct hit, still in La obviously.

And that's a strong ridge anchored over the Carolina's, this thing ain't going much further east than that (landfall) imho, even if the northern most formation occurs.
Click to expand...

That ridge over us is gonna be stout so it likely isn't coming much further east.

for Tennessee and the mountains of NC that have been devastated by flooding the track differences later are huge. GFs is up the west spine of the mountains and out through areas just flooded by Henri while Euro goes from Memphis to Pigeon Forge.

Major differences and will be directly driven by how this ridge over us breaks down.
 
metwannabe said:
You can see on the GEFS that even the northern most formation/track in the GOM bends west thanks to that ridge and heads towards La. Man they need to really start preparations, this could go from a name to major in a matter of hours

View attachment 89173
Click to expand...
Yeah it would be hard to get this thing more east than the Al/Ms border at best unless something strange happened over the next 24 hours with the development and consolidation of the system
 
Shaggy said:
That ridge over us is gonna be stout so it likely isn't coming much further east.

for Tennessee and the mountains of NC that have been devastated by flooding the track differences later are huge. GFs is up the west spine of the mountains and out through areas just flooded by Henri while Euro goes from Memphis to Pigeon Forge.

Major differences and will be directly driven by how this ridge over us breaks down.
Click to expand...
Yeah tbh, I hate to wish this but almost need that ridge slightly stronger to keep the track west of the Apps, western NC does not need any rain right now
 
Shaggy said:
That ridge over us is gonna be stout so it likely isn't coming much further east.

for Tennessee and the mountains of NC that have been devastated by flooding the track differences later are huge. GFs is up the west spine of the mountains and out through areas just flooded by Henri while Euro goes from Memphis to Pigeon Forge.

Major differences and will be directly driven by how this ridge over us breaks down.
Click to expand...
That euro track reminds me of how Ivan made a gulf landfall circled the ridge and regenerated. How the trough/system interact will have big implications for our area. Climo says this gets pulled west and north of us
 
I think we might have a LLC just SW of Jamaica just solely based on my untrained eye of satellite images
 
Good news a good portion of the SE will receive rain regardless of where this makes landfall .


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Shaggy said:
Nothing official just my observations of the low clouds. Could also be a MLC over to the western tip of Jamaica as well.

www.tropicaltidbits.com

Satellite Loop for | Tropical Tidbits

Satellite Loop
www.tropicaltidbits.com www.tropicaltidbits.com
Click to expand...
That loop is mesmerizing. You can see the lower level rotation occurring and a ton of convection all over. Looks like it may be starting to organize a little.
 
Cbmatt2408 said:
That loop is mesmerizing. You can see the lower level rotation occurring and a ton of convection all over. Looks like it may be starting to organize a little.
Click to expand...

Yeah you.can clearly see the low cloud field has a solid spin starting. Exactly where that LLC is forming is a bit muddy due to so much convection. I would not be surprised to see a center reform under the deeper convection either.
 
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