MichaelAndrews
Member
If this thing shoots the gap it's gonna be a big problem, I remember when Michael shot through and exploded almost overnight
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Tropical Hurricane Ida
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
LovingGulfLows
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At the moment, it looks like a center of circulation could be forming on the northside of the wave axis which gives it a higher chance of "shooting the gap" and hitting the northern gulf coast.
BufordWX
Member
The Euro was also a prolific rainfall producer for a large area and it was still going to some extent by the end of the run.
iGRXY
Member
This would be hitting almost exactly where laura hit last year and that would almost wipe what was left of those small towns and communities right off the map.
Tornadocane
Member
I didn't want to be the first to say it. It had to be someone with pedigree.
Since this morning, I've felt like NOLA could be doomed. But the system hadn't even developed yet, so I thought it might be premature.
This thing is not even a storm, and I think it has pretty damn good shot at Category 5 lol.
That's not a good sign.
Henry2326
Member
My theory is that when the HWRF is shouting, pay attention. But when they are all shouting, just start preparations. We have 5 days to get people in the region prepared. Don't squandered it!
Brent
Member
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Looks like trouble for the Gulf states.
accu35
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That sharp right turn tells me we might see more east shift
I like the recurring possibility post landfall .. will certainly help the SE evade dry problems we were about to experience if we had no tropical influence 
I don’t think this necessarily a weenie statement here. We’ve seen the modeling change significantly in the last 36 hours from a Mexico to south Texas threat to now and east Texas/Louisiana threat. Obviously the strength of the ridge in the east is gonna be key in this.
This one is gonna be a bad one, already getting bold wording from the NHC 120 hours out
Brent
Member
Yeah I figured they would ramp up wording today but wow. Last time I remember a hurricane being mentioned in the TWO was Harvey
BufordWX
Member
18z GFS quite a bit further north so far.
It develops it sooner in the Caribbean. Headed to the Big Easy?
BufordWX
Member
Watch out NOLA…
lexxnchloe
Member
Good news is its a whole lot weaker. Maybe that trend will continue.
*insert Katrina reference*
BufordWX
Member
The further north this storm ultimately forms and tracks it will probably limit its amount of time over water and thus it’s strength to an extent. If it slides further south or west if will probably be stronger. One way or the other a formidable storm would be possible though.
Brent
Member
Katrina's anniversary too
This is true. What remains to be seen is how much it develops prior to entering the gulf. I'm seeing increasing odds both in modeling and imagery that I think supports early development.
This won't go unnoticed in N.O. for sure.
Not to mention, verbatim, unlike Katrina this would be a direct hit with more wind in New Orleans proper.
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BHS1975
Member
What about that loop current?
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BufordWX
Member
I’m thinking we get a PTC from this by tomorrow afternoon.
BHS1975
Member
Don't think that beefy ridge over NC will let it happen.
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Lord help the gulf coast if this is a cane shooting the gap.
pcbjr
Member
Until we have a TC and some real data ... just hang on Lucy and enjoy the sitcom ...
accu35
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It's wouldn't take much for a landfall in LA/MS to put me on the bad stuff.
HugeSnowStick
Member
I really dont give a F, but where is your location?
BufordWX
Member
Quite a spread in timing on the GEFS. Some make landfall as early as Sunday while a handful are still in the gulf on Wednesday. Still anywhere from TX to MS/AL in play.
Sunday Evening:
Wednesday Morning:
Sunday Evening:
Wednesday Morning:
Check out mystery meat #2 in the Caribbean after IDA is complete with its gulf coast barrage
HSVweather
Member