Tropical 2021 hurricane season thread

[Meteorologist1999]

I wonder how this current/upcoming steering pattern will affect the SE coast during peak season. Hopefully storms will have enough wiggle room to escape quietly out to sea.

With that ridge everything may just be to the west in gulf.

 

[Chazwin]

With that ridge everything may just be to the west in gulf.

Very true. It’s just a matter of timing of when any weaknesses in the ridge show up and if there’s a storm to ride into to it

 

[Brent]

 

[Brent]

The icon is agreeing with the Euro on the Texas threat

 

[GaWx]

 

[NCSNOW]

How slow does that TX TC drag along coast? 24-36 hrs. I hope not coming up under neath Houston. seems outside of NO sitting in a bowl, the Houston metro floods as bad as any up and down the US coastlines.

 

[SD]

I'm a little surprised nhc hasn't mentioned the area east of the Bahamas

 

[Metwannabe]

I'm a little surprised nhc hasn't mentioned the area east of the Bahamas

Sometimes I think they mention invest areas based off of models developing it or not, which is poor meteorology. That area has some turning and seems like can't 100% rule it out

 

[Shaggy]

Sometimes I think they mention invest areas based off of models developing it or not, which is poor meteorology. That area has some turning and seems like can't 100% rule it out

Isn't that an ULL? Seems those take forever to develop of they do at all.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

12z icon continues the TEXAS sneak attack .. this looked for sure a Mexico threat a couple days ago .. suddenly we watch as the sneak attack is underway

 

[Brent]

The GFS has shifted into Texas now(trending towards the Euro? Lol) so pretty good agreement that whatever comes out of the Caribbean would threaten

And after what Grace did I definitely wouldnt rule out a hurricane

Also should be noted there are hints the steering will collapse near landfall so yeah that's another can of worms

CMC also into Texas now

 

[GaWx]

12z GEFS 156: if I lived in TX or N MX, I'd be feeling uneasy to say the least!

 

[Henry2326]

 

[GaWx]

12z Euro is further north:

 

[Avalanche]

12z Euro is further north:

View attachment 89023

And east

 

[Cadi40]

Good news for the Southeast Coast, not so much the gulf.

 

[GaWx]

Landfall on 12Z Euro at 156 in central LA moving slowly north:

 

[Snowfan]

Should a thread be started for the tropical wave in the eastern Carribean? The models have been really noisy about that system.

 

[SD]

Should a thread be started for the tropical wave in the eastern Carribean? The models have been really noisy about that system.

Yes

 

[Brent]

Should a thread be started for the tropical wave in the eastern Carribean? The models have been really noisy about that system.

I was waiting for it to become an invest but it's clearly going to be an issue