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Tropical Major Hurricane Grace

smast16 said:
There is no way she regains tropical storm so quickly after Hispaniola, and the entire length of Cuba.

With that terrain and time over land, it'll be lucky to emerge an open wave at the surface. All that will remain is a moist pocket and what ever is left over in the mid levels.
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That’s if of course it goes over the whole length of Cuba which remains to be seen. It definitely looks to cross Hispaniola, but there still a decent chance the stays just north of Cuba as it approaches the Florida straits
 
lexxnchloe said:
That might be good.
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Galveston 1900 and Frederic are other big examples...(not saying Grace will follow but it doesn't rule it out) The key things all three had was they stayed weak into the Gulf then blew up just like Laura

So yeah we'll see but it may help it not having a solid center205228_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 
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Brent said:
Galveston 1900 and Frederic are other big examples...(not saying Grace will follow but it doesn't rule it out) The key things all three had was they stayed weak into the Gulf then blew up just like Laura

So yeah we'll see but it may help it not having a solid centerView attachment 88320
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That’s a big shift south from earlier today… almost to the point that it may actually just clip southern Hispaniola and miss Cuba to the south instead of the north.
 
Chazwin said:
That’s a big shift south from earlier today… almost to the point that it may actually just clip southern Hispaniola and miss Cuba to the south instead of the north.
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Supposedly the broad center is actually more to the SW is what I was hearing earlier. If that can close off yeah it might stay south entirely
 
Grace looking good ATM. Probably back to TS. Is there anything that can pull her more north once she's in the gulf?
 
024223_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

New graphic has it keeping weak until day 4.
 
I’m getting a vibe of Hurricane Dean/Felix (2007) hybrid when it comes to the track right about now.
 
Still looks to be a Mexico/S TX storm, but a lot of the models ramp this up to a cat 1 by Thursday/Friday, wherever it is! One or two have it at a major at that time! Yesterday I think 1 model as a cat 1
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Grace Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
500 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 77.9W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM S OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
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Brent said:
Very classic setup heading west under a ridge too
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I'm actually pretty excited about it. Circulations at the levels I can discern on Satellite looks like they're becoming better aligned, particularly the Mid Level Vort SE of Jamaica that has been drawn closer to the LLC. This one might be off to the races very soon. I might pull a late night watching this one, and creeping around Southern, American and S2K forum.
 
Brent said:
Recon already looking like it's stronger than the NHC said
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...NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIND THE CENTER OF
GRACE JUST WEST OF JAMAICA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES IN JAMAICA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 78.6W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM W OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
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Now up to 60 mph.
 
It's taken a long time for Grace to vertically organize it's circulation. That became pretty clear last night, so there was no point staying up too late. If it can get it together, I think Grace could make a run to major in a relatively short period. However, it's become less interesting as time goes on, and Henri has become a bit more interesting.
 
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