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Severe Severe weather 3/30-4/1 2021

Psalm 148:8 said:
BMX only showing a 1 on their scale for storms with wind and hail... tornadoes not mentioned... sure would be nice not to have tornado supercells for once.
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i agree everything this season seems amplified 10x when it comes to severe weather. Can't remember the last time there was a back to to back high risk so early in a season
 
Looks like the NAM is adjusting wind profiles to be more favorable for tornadoes on Wednesday in the Carolinas
 
If nam holds a slight risk may be needed for Wednesday in Carolinas. Nothing eye popping but the line will move through during the evening so.


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Lapse rates are horrendous tho, and Hodographs aren’t really concerning
Later threat = better LLJ/lapse rates
Earlier threat = more diurnal heating but ---- lapse rates and weak low level shear F96B45F0-3FA7-474A-9392-9C6FB43A84FF.png
 
Both Nam models show a tornado threat in Carolinas. Maybe low threat but a threat. The other models don’t really show much tornado risk. Something to watch but for now we can assume the Nam is likely to aggressive.


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Jessy89 said:
Both Nam models show a tornado threat in Carolinas. Maybe low threat but a threat. The other models don’t really show much tornado risk. Something to watch but for now we can assume the Nam is likely to aggressive.


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HRRR has been on point lately.


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Yeah new HRRR is depicting what’s usually been happening the past few severe events ... front is faster and most of it will end up as crapvection .... per HRRR .. maybe some gusty winds but bleh bigger story would be the cold after
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Yeah new HRRR is depicting what’s usually been happening the past few severe events ... front is faster and most of it will end up as crapvection .... per HRRR .. maybe some gusty winds but bleh bigger story would be the cold after
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If you blend the nam and hrrr your area may sit solid
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Yeah new HRRR is depicting what’s usually been happening the past few severe events ... front is faster and most of it will end up as crapvection .... per HRRR .. maybe some gusty winds but bleh bigger story would be the cold after
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Have faith, you and I are on the same severe weather team! We will prevail. fro will fail! EASTERN piedmont is top!
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
If you blend the nam and hrrr your area may sit solid
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True yeah the end of the HRRR looked a bit more interesting but things just usually don’t play out perfectly like that ... I’m sure these storms are going to move in a bit quicker than even modeled now .. timing would be everything and cloud cover looks to be abundant .. I’m hesitant to give it a green light for severe
 
7ff19f269bda21272d14c2e8a25eb3d1.jpg



The placement of that low pressure on the 3k Nam


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Long range HRRR showing what models will end up trending towards kind of already show .. more crapvection and quicker timing .. still doesn’t get here at a good time and there too much clouds and rain before .. heavy rain event then significant cold snap behind
 
Whatever happens will happen. Can't depend on the models for much these days.
 
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