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Wintry February 6th-7th

Gosh I’m telling y’all this is about to surprise people.. look at the latest RAP and what it has for 700mb temps 850 mb temps and 925 Mb temps. ... at the end of the run you can see how colder temps at 850 and 925 start to break out as precip starts to come north .. once over NC I would bet there would be rate driven snow thumping going on.. watch it happen folks
 
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Chandler said:
Not bad but another tick nw
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Wasn’t the Euro really suppressed at 00z, so a big jump? Verbatim, it looks really nice for you and I, but if it continues to jump NW our goose is cooked. However, the modeling seems to be coming into agreement now.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
I like having the Euro on my side. NAM isn't and is concerning. But I do the 28th storm in NC the NAM had nothing at around this lead then caved to the GFS and Euro if I'm not mistaken.
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If we keep this thing the way it is (hard to ask) maybe some areas can get some slush before changing over, but damn can we get a solid event for once ?!
 
metwannabe said:
I mean the Euro went from missing to the south due to weak flat system to this in 12 hours..... all you can do is laugh.
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Jumping towards KING ICON. Looks like the 12z ICON supports a snow to rain type scenario, as well, from the limited maps I have (hard to say for sure, though). Snow to rain seems like a decent call for us at this point, though his much snow we see before the changeover is anyone’s guess. Probably not much, but we can hope.
 
I think models are now locking in on the system, thermals and location.... problem is the vast majority of us on here can't afford any more NW shifts. I agree with @Myfrotho704_ probably a solid front end thump for some before a changeover
 
metwannabe said:
I mean the Euro went from missing to the south due to weak flat system to this in 12 hours..... all you can do is laugh.
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The Euro just isn't what it used to be. It feels like the new GFS picks up on trends faster. V16 had it consistently farther north and now every model caves to it....reminds me of the NC storm a week or so ago. Only one showing snow in NC, then every models eventually bends to it.
 
Not bad from RAH:

....Models continue to trend faster, with an earlier
precip arrival over the S and SE by late Sat, and they`re trending
closer to the coast with the low, tracking it very close to the
Carolina coast from Sat evening through Sun morning before it moves
NE and further away in the afternoon. Will speed up the arrival of
precip, with pops moving into S sections 21z-03z late Sat, followed
by pops peaking at likely SE and chance NW from late Sat evening
through Sun morning, before wrap-around precip departs the N
sections Sun afternoon. Regarding ptype, some raw model output shows
a swath of snow across the N and W sections, mainly N of Hwy 64 and
W of Hwy 1, focused on midnight Sat night to mid morning Sun. While
this is not out of the question, the surface temps will likely be
borderline for accumulations, and given the model inconsistency of
late especially with the NW extent of precip, will keep pops as
chance for now with a rain/snow mix and only a dusting to just under
a half inch of accumulation over the N Piedmont/far W Sat night/Sun
morning, with likely rain over the SE. Again, confidence is lower
than usual based on the model variability, but there does seem to be
an overall trend toward wetter (and whiter over the NW). Highs in
the mid 40s to low 50s and lows 30-36, although these high temps may
be optimistic (too warm).
 
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