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January 11th-12th Southern Slider

Watches already up from Shreveport. Probably extend into Mississippi by tonight.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
350 AM CST Sat Jan 9 2021

...Accumulating snowfall will be possible across portions of the
area Sunday night into Monday morning...

.A strong winter storm will begin moving into the region Sunday
through early Monday morning. Rain during the day Sunday will
transition to all snow or a wintry mix Sunday evening and into
Sunday night. Accumulating snow will be possible across the entire
area
Click to expand...
 
If you told me that Dallas, portions of Louisiana, and Mississippi were getting ready for accumulating snow and winter storm watches, then I would believe we’d be getting ready for some fireworks in central Alabama. This one stings a little bit, but maybe we can score before winter is over.
 
Can't understand why the NWS has rain/snow mix in my forecast for Monday night. No soundings that I have seen supports that. Lower levels are just too warm.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
Can't understand why the NWS has rain/snow mix in my forecast for Monday night. No soundings that I have seen supports that. Lower levels are just too warm.
Click to expand...
Tell FFC the same thing. Has snow and rain and snow for the event here. Sure the hour bars show only 4 hours total but still 0 support here for any wintry precip.
 
Brent said:
I'm still not sure about up here on the northeastern side of Dallas but I just find it hard to believe there's all that snow for hours just south and it only snows a couple inches :p
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Where you at in this run of the GFS? 3-4”?

9785EE09-E2FF-4F79-BC60-6799AE409A53.png
 
KyloG said:
Where you at in this run of the GFS? 3-4”?

View attachment 64523
Click to expand...

The sharp gradient east of the 3.2

The NWS remains very unmpressed here saying maybe a half inch

I was just watching one of the TV stations live videos and they still have it changing back to rain here after a brief snow burst at the onset

Palestine is an interesting looking target if it fails here lmao

ErTZBelXEAMRaiL.jpeg
 
Brent said:
The sharp gradient east of the 3.2

The NWS remains very unmpressed here saying maybe a half inch

I was just watching one of the TV stations live videos and they still have it changing back to rain here after a brief snow burst at the onset

Palestine is an interesting looking target if it fails here lmao

View attachment 64531
Click to expand...

Would suck missing this to the south. Hopefully the precip is more expansive to the north. It always is here.

B5974659-EAD0-49C0-AA8A-1B07308979D9.png9CF76361-D87D-4261-BF28-549F14CBA9F5.png
 
Brent said:
Honestly I've been waiting for it to trend north for a couple days

I'm not giving up yet but come on already lol
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Yeah, here in NC we know how this would end...this would be 50-100 miles north. The meso’s are really bad at the northern extent of precip.
 
KyloG said:
Yeah, here in NC we know how this would end...this would be 50-100 miles north. The meso’s are really bad at the northern extent of precip.
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That's what happened when I went west the other week

Of course the big difference then was I knew Dallas wasn't gonna see anything
 
No chance North Central AL gets in on any of this?? A lot of times if the Dallas area gets it, and good chunk of the SE does too
 
ForsythSnow said:
Tell FFC the same thing. Has snow and rain and snow for the event here. Sure the hour bars show only 4 hours total but still 0 support here for any wintry precip.
Click to expand...
I haven’t looked today but the NAM soundings were damn close here for awhile. It has no other but close enough for them to CYA I guess. I imagine 2017 weighs on their minds. This isn’t that storm but they called for next to nothing and I got a foot.
 
I just don’t understand why its so hard for north central Alabama to get anything besides just rain I came down here to visit family for a wedding thinking it was going to be a nice little snow storm here only to miss it wide east lol
 
EmersonGA said:
I haven’t looked today but the NAM soundings were damn close here for awhile. It has no other but close enough for them to CYA I guess. I imagine 2017 weighs on their minds. This isn’t that storm but they called for next to nothing and I got a foot.
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Well the NAM is the NAM and is close but I almost guarantee it'll be warmer and/or drier. Also 2017 the NAM had consistent dumps of 6+ inches each run for N GA but nobody believed the clown maps.
1610214579885.png
 
FWIW 12z gefs members starting to snow little more east into south west Bama. Faster the better
 
Montanasnow30 said:
I just don’t understand why its so hard for north central Alabama to get anything besides just rain I came down here to visit family for a wedding thinking it was going to be a nice little snow storm here only to miss it wide east lol
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Time of day doesnt help y'all plus the pattern has just favored areas further west

It needs to come in earlier for y'all to have a chance
 
snod.us_se.png
Even the 12z Euro has a little onset stuff close to my county
 
ForsythSnow said:
Well the NAM is the NAM and is close but I almost guarantee it'll be warmer and/or drier. Also 2017 the NAM had consistent dumps of 6+ inches each run for N GA but nobody believed the clown maps.
View attachment 64552
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True. I was just using 2017 as an example on why FFC would cover this far out.
 
Montanasnow30 said:
I just don’t understand why its so hard for north central Alabama to get anything besides just rain I came down here to visit family for a wedding thinking it was going to be a nice little snow storm here only to miss it wide east lol
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We don't have true arctic airmass right now and the timing of everything is messed up but the fact that it's snowing deep into Texas and Louisiana gives me hope that we can get something later on.
 
RollTide18 said:
We don't have true arctic airmass right now and the timing of everything is messed up but the fact that it's snowing deep into Texas and Louisiana gives me hope that we can get something later on.
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I hope so too it just seems like this part of the south can’t catch a break with constantly missing out on snowstorms
 
I can be in Dallas county in 5 minutes technically lol

.Winter storm expected across portions of North and Central
Texas on Sunday and into early Monday...

TXZ102-103-118>121-134-100400-
/O.NEW.KFWD.WW.Y.0001.210110T1200Z-210111T1200Z/
Wise-Denton-Tarrant-Dallas-Rockwall-Kaufman-Ellis-
Including the cities of Decatur, Bridgeport, Carrollton, Denton,
Lewisville, Flower Mound, Fort Worth, Arlington, Dallas,
Rockwall, Heath, Terrell, Kaufman, Forney, Waxahachie, Ennis,
and Midlothian
130 PM CST Sat Jan 9 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches
with isolated totals near 3 inches possible.
 
Brent said:
The sharp gradient east of the 3.2

The NWS remains very unmpressed here saying maybe a half inch

I was just watching one of the TV stations live videos and they still have it changing back to rain here after a brief snow burst at the onset

Palestine is an interesting looking target if it fails here lmao

View attachment 64531
Click to expand...
Why do they call it a worst case scenario ? Wouldn't it be best case scenario ?
 
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