Brent
Member
If this does go bad in DFW Waco is looking like a good starting point for a chase
But we'll see I really don't want to go west again lol
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January 11th-12th Southern Slider
- Thread starter DadOfJax
- Start date
If this does go bad in DFW Waco is looking like a good starting point for a chase
But we'll see I really don't want to go west again lol
That drive down I-35E is a ----- because of construction from Red Oak to Hillsboro.
Dewpoint Dan
Member
Time for another trip to Abilene
Usmeagle2005
Member
That cutoff.?
ATLwxfan
Member
Man it’s awfully close for north GA. If we could cool the column.
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Montanasnow30
Member
I guess we should rename this storm thread to Texas snowstorm only lol
Brent
Member
Please verify lmao ?
Brent
Member
Yeah but spending over an hour driving across the entire metro going to Abilene is also a ----- lmao
Brent
Member
modernweenie
At least the bleeding has stopped.
Dewpoint Dan
Member
Winter Storm Watches deep into Central Texas. Places as far south as Jacksonville, FL are under a watch !
NWS Huntsville not jazzed, but acknowledging significant uncertainty still.
.LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 218 PM CST Fri Jan 8 2021
An upper disturbance within a trough off of the Pacific NW coast will
intensify as it heads to the SE during the course of the weekend
across the southern Rockies. This system should consist of a closed
500mb low over the OK/TX Red River Valley by the start of this
extended period. The upper system will continue heading east, then
ENE during the early half of next week. Usual east of the Rockies
surface low cyclogenesis will take place over SE Texas on Sunday.
This surface system should head to the east along the Gulf Coast,
reaching the western Florida Panhandle Monday morning, and be located
over the GA/FL region Tuesday morning.
The timing on when the precipitation shield from this next system,
could have some impacts regarding the Tennessee Valley`s weather on
Monday. The models have overall taken on a slower trend in this
regards, which could lessen impacts of wintry weather for the region.
An item of concern will be low temperatures Sun night/Mon morning,
which will range in the mid/upper 20s. Precip starting the (Mon
morning) will likely be all snow (or a wintry mix if warmer
conditions aloft become involved). Air temperatures however should
rapidly warm to above freezing in the mid/late morning. This and
rising heights/thicknesses should help the precipitation become a
all liquid for the later morning, continuing into the early evening.
High temperatures on Mon should rise into the lower 40s. Mon night`s
forecast again could become tricky, again depending upon the system
positioning, and how cold it gets if precip is still falling. Though
the EC solution was quicker to start the precip, it also ends it
quicker than the GFS/Canadian (that keep it going into the overnight
Mon night hours). Temperatures at this time also go to or below
freezing for most of the area, and adds to the complexity of for a
forecast.
Models wise, the GFS/Canadian have taken a slower trend regarding
when precip begins falling on the area. Both of them would suggest
all liquid event (with a few ice pellets mixed in at the start). The
somewhat quicker NAM/ECMWF could result in a wintry start to the
precip especially for our eastern areas. A faster ECMWF solution,
while not uncalled for, is different from what we usually see. With
this occurring a good 3 days from now, there remains too much
uncertainty to go one way or the other. Future forecast model runs
concerning this system sometimes can offer other solutions that we
are not detecting (not limited to larger chances in forecast precip
amounts and/or temperatures). Nevertheless, this is something we
will pay close attention to during the upcoming weekend.
.LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 218 PM CST Fri Jan 8 2021
An upper disturbance within a trough off of the Pacific NW coast will
intensify as it heads to the SE during the course of the weekend
across the southern Rockies. This system should consist of a closed
500mb low over the OK/TX Red River Valley by the start of this
extended period. The upper system will continue heading east, then
ENE during the early half of next week. Usual east of the Rockies
surface low cyclogenesis will take place over SE Texas on Sunday.
This surface system should head to the east along the Gulf Coast,
reaching the western Florida Panhandle Monday morning, and be located
over the GA/FL region Tuesday morning.
The timing on when the precipitation shield from this next system,
could have some impacts regarding the Tennessee Valley`s weather on
Monday. The models have overall taken on a slower trend in this
regards, which could lessen impacts of wintry weather for the region.
An item of concern will be low temperatures Sun night/Mon morning,
which will range in the mid/upper 20s. Precip starting the (Mon
morning) will likely be all snow (or a wintry mix if warmer
conditions aloft become involved). Air temperatures however should
rapidly warm to above freezing in the mid/late morning. This and
rising heights/thicknesses should help the precipitation become a
all liquid for the later morning, continuing into the early evening.
High temperatures on Mon should rise into the lower 40s. Mon night`s
forecast again could become tricky, again depending upon the system
positioning, and how cold it gets if precip is still falling. Though
the EC solution was quicker to start the precip, it also ends it
quicker than the GFS/Canadian (that keep it going into the overnight
Mon night hours). Temperatures at this time also go to or below
freezing for most of the area, and adds to the complexity of for a
forecast.
Models wise, the GFS/Canadian have taken a slower trend regarding
when precip begins falling on the area. Both of them would suggest
all liquid event (with a few ice pellets mixed in at the start). The
somewhat quicker NAM/ECMWF could result in a wintry start to the
precip especially for our eastern areas. A faster ECMWF solution,
while not uncalled for, is different from what we usually see. With
this occurring a good 3 days from now, there remains too much
uncertainty to go one way or the other. Future forecast model runs
concerning this system sometimes can offer other solutions that we
are not detecting (not limited to larger chances in forecast precip
amounts and/or temperatures). Nevertheless, this is something we
will pay close attention to during the upcoming weekend.
Brent
Member
Forecast models suggest that most likely
corridor for heavy snow will be from the Big Country to Central
Texas, near a line from Eastland to Stephenville to Waco. These
locations may receive 2-4 inches of snow, with locally higher
amounts of up to 6 inches possible in some locations. Given the
steep lapse rates and strong ascent within the dendritic growth
zone, the potential for heavy banding snow will be likely, but
given the mesoscale nature of these types of bands, it is nearly
impossible to forecast with great confidence where these may occur
at this lead time.
The difficult decision to exclude the core of the Dallas/Fort
Worth Metropolitan Area was made with this forecast for a few
reasons. First, the deterministic snowfall forecast as well as
probabilistic guidance shows that the DFW area is likely to
remain below warning criteria. Secondly, there is still at least
36-48 hours before any potential snow onset in the Metroplex.
While the current forecast would potentially require an Advisory
if it were within 24 hours, we opted to hold off on the issuance
of a Watch at this time. Forecast users are strongly advised
,however, that a northward shift of about 30-40 miles in the
track of the forecast low and therefore the heaviest snowfall
amounts could place DFW within heavier snow. It is therefore
encouraged that folks across North Texas make any necessary
preparations for the potential for accumulating snowfall as
possibility certainly exists, even if it is not a strong
probability at this time.
corridor for heavy snow will be from the Big Country to Central
Texas, near a line from Eastland to Stephenville to Waco. These
locations may receive 2-4 inches of snow, with locally higher
amounts of up to 6 inches possible in some locations. Given the
steep lapse rates and strong ascent within the dendritic growth
zone, the potential for heavy banding snow will be likely, but
given the mesoscale nature of these types of bands, it is nearly
impossible to forecast with great confidence where these may occur
at this lead time.
The difficult decision to exclude the core of the Dallas/Fort
Worth Metropolitan Area was made with this forecast for a few
reasons. First, the deterministic snowfall forecast as well as
probabilistic guidance shows that the DFW area is likely to
remain below warning criteria. Secondly, there is still at least
36-48 hours before any potential snow onset in the Metroplex.
While the current forecast would potentially require an Advisory
if it were within 24 hours, we opted to hold off on the issuance
of a Watch at this time. Forecast users are strongly advised
,however, that a northward shift of about 30-40 miles in the
track of the forecast low and therefore the heaviest snowfall
amounts could place DFW within heavier snow. It is therefore
encouraged that folks across North Texas make any necessary
preparations for the potential for accumulating snowfall as
possibility certainly exists, even if it is not a strong
probability at this time.
bingcrosbyb
Member
If I’m in Dallas area I hug the SREF. Take it to dinner and a movie. 
Risky . Take it to dinner knowing it will probably leave with someone else
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Flurry
Member
Maybe getting close to Winter in "The Ham"...
proud dad
Member
Glad to see you posting lately Bing!