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Wintry January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!

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This is my first call map and precip map. I am going to watch the trends through tonight and start making tweaks in the morning if it is needed. This map is highly subjected to change due to many factors (how much WAA is showing up, do mid and lower levels continue to cool quicker like we've seen on short range guidance so far, do we get the back end precip to form and where and for how long?). The Mountains are a sure thing to likely get 6-8" at this point. It may start off as some onset snow and sleet south of I40 but quickly change over to snow for the duration. The far western foothills and especially the escarpment should see close to 4-6". Now once we get into the upstate and areas west of 77 things get tricky. Models have trended much colder here and looks like a change over to snow/sleet then to snow happens sometime between 12-3am. Areas along Highway 11 down to the I85 corridor I think look good for a 1-4" snow, again that is dependent on if the colder atmosphere varies and especially on the backend snow that looks to be heavy and last several hours on the NAM and Euro. Once you get down to the cities of Greenville, Pickens, Spartanburg, and Gaffney I think 1-2" is possible with the same variables taken into account. South of there a quick trace to as much as an inch from Anderson to Woodruff to Union depending on the backend snow. Areas along and east of 77 are really going to have to worry about not only the WAA but how much moisture actually makes it up that way. I do think the Euro is underdone here but how much actually does make it here and how long does it take to change over? The Triad I think could get 1-4" dependent on those variables with heavier totals further west. The snow cutoffs are probably going to be stout in this type of setup. The southern suburbs (Roebuck, Simpsonville, towards Hickory Grove might see an inch or an 1 1/2. The cities along 85 could see 1-2" and the northern suburbs 2"+ with as much as 3 or 4" for areas like Inman, Landrum, Chesnee, Marietta, etc ...
 
Chandler said:
LolView attachment 63581
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What sucks is the HRRR actually did really well this past summer when it came to thunderstorm development. And now this...


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ULL stronger at 21 on the NAM. Generally about the same place maybe just a hair south but won't make much of a difference.
 
850s were warmer this run but are at or below freezing about the same time as the previous run (9z).
 
12km NAM is showing wet snow verbatim in central NC this run...

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BUT the max temps in the column between the sfc and 500mb are +0-1C (green shading). If the warm nose is literally any stronger whatsoever than forecast, you're getting cold rain & sleet instead of wet snow & this snow is probably concrete and mixing w/ sleet verbatim given this look so your ratios are generously 4-5:1.

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