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January 11th-12th Southern Slider

Unfortunately NWS GSP is discounting the 2nd event next week



LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

AS OF 210 AM EST WEDNESDAY: PRETTY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDS OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY MONDAY. LINGERING PRECIP/SNOW IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WRN NC MTNS EARLY SAT AS THE UPPER TROF EXITS THE ATL
COAST, THEN DEEPLY DRY AIR MOVES FROM THE NW THRU THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE OP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A REINFORCING CP
AIRMASS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SUN INTO MON WITH THE GFS/CMC
SHOWING A SUPPRESSIVE ATMOS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE 00Z ECMWF
ON THE OTHER HAND IS STICKING TO IT/S GUNS AND DEVELOPS A MOIST
COASTAL LOW WITH VERY GOOD MOISTURE ADV INTO EXISTING COLD AIR
ACROSS THE FA EARLY MON INTO TUE. THIS IDEA WAS GIVEN LITTLE WEIGHT
IN THE FCST YET HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH -SN/RA
ACROSS MOST AREAS IF THE ECMWF PATTERN PANS OUT AND ANY MOISTURE
ACTUALLY REACHES THE AREA. WILL BE ONE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THO AS ANY
LIFTING OF THE CP HIGH IN THE OTHER OP MODELS WOULD ALLOW FOR
COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS DUE TO ENERGIZED PFJ/STJ COUPLING. WITH THE
CANADIAN AIRMASS MOVING IN AND SLOWLY MODIFYING THRU THE PERIOD, MAX
AND MIN TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE HELD A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH
DAY.
 
Ethan80963 said:
The 6z GFS looks much better at H5. This run actually had a closer look to yesterdays 12z run at H5. Maybe we can start trending back to that sort of solution. The 6z GEFS had solutions from sheared out waves to amped up lows. IMO models are going to keep throwing out every solution until the Thursday-Friday system is over.
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GFS is also much colder. If we could shift the cut off on the Euro from the plains to Michigan, we have a shot. A “Great Lakes low” and we have a real shot.
 
Funny how folks thought this one was going to better than the Friday storm, and now it looks like it is going to be the other way around, which isn't saying much.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Funny how folks thought this one was going to better than the Friday storm, and now it looks like it is going to be the other way around, which isn't saying much.
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I still think this has a great shot at being better than the Friday storm for a lot more of the board.
 
Just a watch for trends, 6z Para GFS improved a lot. Everyone needs to realize the Euro was there last night, a tad cooler which is absolutely doable and this thread is getting a post every few minutes. I think most here would have died trying to track 2/12/10 or 12/25/10.
 
I just saw the euro and man it had plenty of precip, but too warm like ARCC stated.

Last nights EPS had the most number of members with snow that we’ve had the whole track of this storm, but most are obviously light. I think I’m just more happy that the Euro came in with the precip. We saw how this current system we’ve been tracking came in colder. I’m still very excited.
E30954DD-4A6B-4AF4-A7E6-7DDBE475FA45.png
 
Parker said:
I just saw the euro and man it had plenty of precip, but too warm like ARCC stated.

Last nights EPS had the most number of members with snow that we’ve had the whole track of this storm, but most are obviously light. I think I’m just more happy that the Euro came in with the precip. We saw how this current system we’ve been tracking came in colder. I’m still very excited.
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That is a huge number of members. Very nice.
 
Parker said:
I just saw the euro and man it had plenty of precip, but too warm like ARCC stated.

Last nights EPS had the most number of members with snow that we’ve had the whole track of this storm, but most are obviously light. I think I’m just more happy that the Euro came in with the precip. We saw how this current system we’ve been tracking came in colder. I’m still very excited.
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How did huntsville look?
 
Arcc said:
Just a watch for trends, 6z Para GFS improved a lot. Everyone needs to realize the Euro was there last night, a tad cooler which is absolutely doable and this thread is getting a post every few minutes. I think most here would have died trying to track 2/12/10 or 12/25/10.
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Reminds me of the Dec 18 overrunning event, which initially was depicted as way suppressed, then came back late but with bad surface temps depicted, then - boom. It will be interesting to see if we get improvements in temps as we get closer, but that doesn’t matter if you don’t have a storm so glad to see the Euro bringing it back up.
 
Ron Burgundy said:
Reminds me of the Dec 18 overrunning event, which initially was depicted as way suppressed, then came back late but with bad surface temps depicted, then - boom. It will be interesting to see if we get improvements in temps as we get closer, but that doesn’t matter if you don’t have a storm so glad to see the Euro bringing it back up.
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It all depends on where that ULL goes. If it phases, some could be good. If it is more progressive and moves East, we may be good. If it slows down and the wave over the NE slows down, some will be good. If it stays put we are dead. Luckily the northern stream has been bouncing wildly.

Edit: This is more for the MS, AL, Ga people. Y’all in NC are in another climate.
 

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Arcc said:
Yep. That would be ideal. Seed the cold air and allow the s/w to gain separation. Gonna be a nail biter, but that is our life in the south.
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I agree! I still think this has massive potential. Hell maybe it sets up something else behind it.
 
I'm really liking the trends in the 6z models. And the ICON is better so far.
 
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Much better icon run


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We are back in business. I don’t even want to see it come much further NW at this stage of the game.
 
Bsud said:
As far as upstate goes, This one has much bigger potential than the Friday system.

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Absolutely this is my focus because there’s more cold air to work with here


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SD said:
Personally think this threat is dead for my area and probably rdu. Over your way and gso might score
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This was supposed to be a bigger deal than the Friday storm. ?
 
Jessy89 said:
Absolutely this is my focus because there’s more cold air to work with here


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More of a Classic setup, Cold will already be established when storm arrives.

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SD said:
Personally think this threat is dead for my area and probably rdu. Over your way and gso might score
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Yeah, agreed, why I haven't posted much in here. Definitely a threat for TX over towards AL though. I hope this works out for them.

But for Raleigh, If we can't get it to snow with Friday's setup then Monday's isn't going to work either...airmass roughly the same, and setup is way worse for Monday.


Friday setup - cold rain for central NC

Screen Shot 2021-01-06 at 11.14.18 AM.png


Monday setup - way worse setup.

Screen Shot 2021-01-06 at 11.14.35 AM.png
 
I will say gonna need some help at 2m for sure. Would be a crappy 38 degree rain storm for sure....... I think we still have time for sure, but need to see a little more with the H5 setup as well.
 
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