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Ostrich December

I'm honestly most interested in what the CMC will show around the Christmas timeframe. It was the first to pick out this "storm".

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Myfrotho704_ said:
Fay is cursed for winterwx, lol
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Lol tbh you're right. We haven't had a 12"+ storm since 1958 in Fayetteville, while the row of counties to my south have had three 12"+ events since then.

February 9-11 1973 NC Snowmap.png

March 1-2 1980 NC Snowmap Reanalyzed.png
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To top it off, Jan 2000 then decided to drop a foot+ in the counties immediately to my west too.

1608075175552.png
 
DopplerWx said:
honestly I’m happy we even have a fantasy storm for Christmas, will never forget the 2010 storm popped up around this time and showed a hit until models lost it 72 hours out only to bring it back the day before. Most fun I have had tracking a storm.
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That was a great one, and we have seen plenty of times like that when a good storm shows up in the long range and disappears, only to show up again down the road.

Anyone remember which model showed the Christmas 2010 storm first?
 
I see the new GFS still likes to spit out its share of fantasy fails. Is this model ever going to get a clue? Can someone in charge just please add about 5 - 7 degrees and a 100 mile NW shift to it's model output and be done with it?
 
mrdaddyman said:
I see the new GFS still likes to spit out its share of fantasy fails. Is this model ever going to get a clue? Can someone in charge just please add about 5 - 7 degrees and a 100 mile NW shift to it's model output and be done with it?
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mrdaddyman said:
I see the new GFS still likes to spit out its share of fantasy fails. Is this model ever going to get a clue? Can someone in charge just please add about 5 - 7 degrees and a 100 mile NW shift to it's model output and be done with it?
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It's funny though the only reason the gfs was able to show a fantasy storm was due to it backing off the cold press and northern stream. The Euro and Canadian were too cold/northern stream dominant
 
Great/encouraging post from Griteater over on American. It seems that HM and Isotherm are also pretty encouraged too!
This is going to work out pretty well (for once), though the vision I had for the storm threat (#3) was more of a west to east, moderate strength storm as opposed to a full-on nor'easter.
Going forward, both Anthony Masiello (HM) and Isotherm are honking for January (these are 2 of the best out there for long range discussion):
Anthony -
Isotherm - https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/54035-my-winter-outlook-2020-21/?do=findComment&comment=5732631
Anthony is expecting an MJO orbit through phases 7-8-1-2 late Dec thru January -
Here is what MJO Phase 8 looks like in early January on average - suppressed tropical convection in the Maritime Continent (orange/red/white colors), ridge over Alaska / Western Canada / Greenland, trough east of the Rockies
301B35EB-6901-4D17-97BA-DEB6CC75EC7E.png
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