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Naughty November

SD said:
Watch the pattern across the CONUS next week on the models in the now D7-10 period. Can easily transition into a warm one for us, on the flip side any westward/deeper adjustment to the trough off of the west coast and we are chilly.
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Yeah I’ve been watching the GFS, it’s as unreliable as ever. Haven’t looked at 6z yet but for the past couple days it has flipped back and forth on early next week being 75 or 60 for highs
 
Pretty good agreement here between 12z GFS and 0z ECMWF. Both show fropa on Monday. Side question: does the euro have a cold bias in the 8-10 range?
sfct.us_ma.png

gfs_T2m_seus_30.png
 
Sleet City USA said:
Pretty good agreement here between 12z GFS and 0z ECMWF. Both show fropa on Monday. Side question: does the euro have a cold bias in the 8-10 range?
sfct.us_ma.png

gfs_T2m_seus_30.png
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So far this cold season in that time period when we have a cold shot it's been about 3-5 degrees too cold on highs but about the same too warm with lows
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
This is possible the worst pattern you can ask for headed into our favorable time frame typical of a La Niña, we have a better shot at a hurricane here in the SE than a snow event in late November/early December, lol View attachment 51966View attachment 51967
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Or some sort of significant severe weather outbreak.


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smast16 said:
SD Can you elaborate this for me? I'm not picking up what you're putting down!
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Previous runs of the Euro had dews in the 70s over the weekend, today's run in the 40s. With ETA still to the south and a strong S flow above the wedge someone is going to be looking at a cloudy drizzly Saturday with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
This is possible the worst pattern you can ask for headed into our favorable time frame typical of a La Niña, we have a better shot at a hurricane here in the SE than a snow event in late November/early December, lol View attachment 51966View attachment 51967
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If we could push the center of the ridge into Canada & have a s/w get stuck underneath it, we'd have a chance at a CAD pattern w/ the trough over New England but that's about it.
 
SD said:
Previous runs of the Euro had dews in the 70s over the weekend, today's run in the 40s. With ETA still to the south and a strong S flow above the wedge someone is going to be looking at a cloudy drizzly Saturday with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s
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Going camping this weekend In VA. Tryna see if it's going to hold dry.
 
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SD said:
Previous runs of the Euro had dews in the 70s over the weekend, today's run in the 40s. With ETA still to the south and a strong S flow above the wedge someone is going to be looking at a cloudy drizzly Saturday with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s
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Looking around at a few forecasts in the Carolinas, mostly showing low 60s for highs everywhere. Will be interesting, might have classic overperforming CAD
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Gefs liking that idea to, I thought trends to colder were done this year, lol View attachment 51980
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I figured a few days ago we'd at least have a shot to see a reprieve from this SE ridge momentarily anyways, given that the Pacific jet will extend all the way to the west coast later this week. Once the Pacific jet starts pulling back & amplifying, we'll have an opportunity for a nice, brief cold shot as the pattern reshuffles.

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Webberweather53 said:
I figured a few days ago we'd at least have a shot to see a reprieve from this SE ridge momentarily anyways, given that the Pacific jet will extend all the way to the west coast later this week. Once the Pacific jet starts pulling back & amplifying, we'll have an opportunity for a nice, brief cold shot as the pattern reshuffles.

View attachment 51981
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Sucks that it looks transient, that look isn’t the best for winter wx should it return unless we get something similar dive south and another piece of energy follow suit behind it
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Sucks that it looks transient, that look isn’t the best for winter wx should it return unless we get something similar dive south and another piece of energy follow suit behind it
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Yeah this is where imo an active southern jet/El Nino would come in handy, having a southern stream wave emerge out of the south-central Rockies and try to catch up to/overrun the backside of this big trough over New England & Atlantic Canada. Outside of that southern stream disturbance (& meh climo) however, we have the longwaves about where we want them for CAD

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North America NCEPR1 z500a NC Miller B Winter Storms (1948-2019).png
 
Just please let next week be cool or even cold....me and Shaggy take a hunt week every year and next week is it....going to get 2-3"of rain and need the cooler weather to keep the skeeters under control and to keep them deer moving.

That big front Monday night is perfect...Tues thru Fri look solid just need it to pan out.....
 
Could totally see a pullback on the cool down next week. AN +5 to 10. Also, it’s a ways out but firmly bbq weather for Thanksgiving.


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Tarheel1 said:
It’s thundering now! Can’t wait for snow in 7-10 days
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In Oklahoma we apparently only get thunder when there’s already a winter storm ongoing. Thundersleet and Thunderice for the win!

Funny enough those were the only days since early September we have even had thunder here. What are the odds of that? Lol
 
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