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Tropical Hurricane Sally

984mb on the 0z Nam
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We keep looking at all these waves coming from Africa and this thing just formed out of the blue near Florida.
 
So we've been here before......before you all start saying "it can't be", Take it for the possibility that the risk is increasing for a significant event in less than 3 days time......
HWRF. 964
HMON 970
NAM 931....let's add 20 pts and still at 951

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ForsythSnow said:
NAM 3km is a mesoscale model not a hurricane model. Its output should not be considered until post-landfall.
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NOAA says this.....I will keep watching it. It shows risk.....

The NAM generates multiple grids (or domains) of weather forecasts over the North American continent at various horizontal resolutions. High-resolution forecasts are generated within the NAM using additional numerical weather models. These high-resolution forecast windows are generated over fixed regions and are occasionally run to follow significant weather events like hurricanes.
 
Conditions aren't terrible as this gets into the gulf and approaches the gulf coast and they likely are the best just before landfall. I'd be cautious here since this system may not be large and could easily go either way with intensity.
 
Looks like it's getting its act together......if it gets organized today, then more time over water.....HWRF has it hitting hurricane status on Sunday night, HMON on Monday morning.....


 
Tarheel1 said:
It did well with the one that just hit TX/LA right?
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It was about 15 pts too low in intensity but nailed the location and showed risk of rapid intensification at least 3 days out. It sent a clear message to evacuate....which I think saving lives is the point of this exercise.
 
Rain Cold said:
That 782mb Cat 7 that it had?
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I think that it picked up an 892 in the first day of forecasting, then it came back......as compared to the GFS that had a cat2 at landfall....pick your poison. I will go with plan for the worse, hope for the best anytime.
 
Looking at last nights Euro I’m getting a feeling we may be dealing with this one for a while. Has it stall across the SE all week until the front actually pushes it back into the Gulf.

Edit: Euro is actually very close to stalling at landfall and the retrograding eastward and then SE as the ridge builds again over the GOM. Microcane plus weak erratic steering currents and we get a ping pong ball.
 
That’s potentially a pretty ominous track for NOLA, isn’t it? Seems like winds would blow surge towards NOLA from over Lake Ponchatrain. If it doesn’t strengthen past a cat 1, that probably won’t be a big deal, but if it strengthens more than forecasted it could be a big problem.
 
Looking like it'll probably be another sneaky one, like Hanna was, except it'll have more time over water.
 
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