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Tropical Hurricane Isaias

Charleston Update:
Hurricane Isaias will have at least some impacts on the area
later Sunday through Monday. The 5 AM advisory does not make any
significant west or east shift in the track. However the wind
radii on the western side of the system have been decreased
substantially in response to growing model consensus in a
compact cyclone. The tropical storm force winds are now forecast
to remain just off the coast. The global models continue to show
considerable spread in track and speed, so confidence remains
relatively low in the exact impacts Isaias may have on our area.
At a minimum, coastal hazards such as rip currents, high surf,
coastal flooding, and erosion will be possible.

The precipitation forecast is quite tricky due to the
uncertainty in the track and size of Isaias as it makes its
closest approach. Some guidance shows a deep tropical airmass
overspreading eastern SC, accompanied by numerous to widespread
showers, while others maintain a very compact system with the
brunt of the precip remaining offshore. There are hints that
drier air will advect into southeast GA and inland SC,
potentially resulting in minimal precipitation in those areas.
 
metwannabe said:
How in the world does it strengthen over the Central NC desert? Drops like 10 mb crossing the state, I'm assuming upper energy influence, pressure gradient, etc.
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That is correct. The base of the trough almost tries to tilt negative under the low north of the lakes
 
My gut tells me that by the 11PM advisory we will have a projected South Florida Landfall and only tropical storm strength from northern Florida to the Carolinas
 
metwannabe said:
Agreed, it's looking pretty good atm. Deep thunderstorm activity right over the center, also seems to have a nice tight wrapped up core.... those are hard to disrupt and even more difficult to predict intensity.
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Not trying to go weenie mode here but in terms of approach to the coast andthe angle of the shoreline in Florida even 75 miles east of the ukie and euro track leads to a very different possibility in terms of strength and sensible weather further up the coast.

Sort of like charlies surprise landfall in 2004. It doesnt take much a shift at those angles to have very big change to outcome.
 
metwannabe said:
Agreed, it's looking pretty good atm. Deep thunderstorm activity right over the center, also seems to have a nice tight wrapped up core.... those are hard to disrupt and even more difficult to predict intensity.
Click to expand...
Yeah much better than I expected, I thought we may have a naked swirl by now. There's still a little restriction to the west but all in all it looks really good
 
metwannabe said:
Let's go!!! This should really blow some leaves around, especially the Poplar tree leaves that are everywhere thanks to the recent dry conditions..... btw metwannabe specials aren't just for winter.
Click to expand...

Yeah. My usually beautiful Tulip Poplar looks ragged.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
Isaias could potentially be worse inland over Central NC compared to the coast line
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I'd rather have the threat here than for it to tear up the OBX. That's my favorite place in NC. Plus, it would mean more excitement for us.
 
Bham 99 said:
Charleston Update:
Hurricane Isaias will have at least some impacts on the area
later Sunday through Monday. The 5 AM advisory does not make any
significant west or east shift in the track. However the wind
radii on the western side of the system have been decreased
substantially in response to growing model consensus in a
compact cyclone. The tropical storm force winds are now forecast
to remain just off the coast. The global models continue to show
considerable spread in track and speed, so confidence remains
relatively low in the exact impacts Isaias may have on our area.
At a minimum, coastal hazards such as rip currents, high surf,
coastal flooding, and erosion will be possible.

The precipitation forecast is quite tricky due to the
uncertainty in the track and size of Isaias as it makes its
closest approach. Some guidance shows a deep tropical airmass
overspreading eastern SC, accompanied by numerous to widespread
showers, while others maintain a very compact system with the
brunt of the precip remaining offshore. There are hints that
drier air will advect into southeast GA and inland SC,
potentially resulting in minimal precipitation in those areas.
Click to expand...

Call it a gut feeling, but I think this may begin to change in the coming discussions later today and tomorrow should trends continue..
 
Shaggy said:
Is it just me or does this NOT look like a sheared out POS storm that was expected as it interacted with the shear today? That CDO expansion to the SW is not too shabby.
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Honestly, I think dry air downslope from Hispaniola served up it's briefly ragged look but as soon as it started feeling deeper moisture coming in from the Windward Passage, helped the recovery a bit...
 
metwannabe said:
With regard to the eps, no surprise, weaker means west side of guidance and stronger east side with 0 ots.
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Further west would be the best case scenario for most since it would mean a less dangerous and damaging storm (and hopefully no evacuations, which would be a nightmare due to COVID) as well as beneficial rainfall further inland. After such a dry July, rainfall has become much more beneficial/needed.
 
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