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Tropical Hurricane Isaias

BHS1975 said:
Man that ridge is flexing. I don’t see a coastal track holding with that. Maybe more like what the Navgem is showing.


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Looks like that's the result of the trough over the CONUS trending sharper and sharper. A weaker storm also gets influenced by the ridge more. Honestly, it's a mix of good and bad news. Good news is if it hits Florida, it's unlikely to be that strong....bad news is obviously it hits the US, but honestly, an OTS solution seems pretty unlikely at this point in time so this is probably the best thing when it comes to having minimal impact on the coast.

That trough will be nice over our area though as far as temperatures are concerned. I feel bad for people in the west though....that ridge is quite insane for this time of year. Looks like something you'd see in the winter months.
 
Lickwx said:
Dang , so even way out in Elizabeth city far from any major job market northerners are pouring in . Lol.
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Actually a huge job market. 45 minutes to Hampton Roads, UNC system University, biggest USCG base in the nation, major aircraft overhaul facility, huge prison, giant solar and wind farms. People are getting great paying jobs around here and our growth has increased exponentially.


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It sure seems figuring out the strength and tracks of these tropical systems has been harder the past few years than it used to be.
 
Good news as westward.and weaker trend continues on the 12Z GEFS. This would be good not only from the standpoint of not having a dangerous storm but also in terms of more members getting needed rainfall:

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Ukmet much weaker and west goes inland over South FL

HURRICANE ISAIAS ANALYSED POSITION : 21.6N 73.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 31.07.2020 0 21.6N 73.9W 1003 46
0000UTC 01.08.2020 12 23.0N 76.7W 1001 46
1200UTC 01.08.2020 24 24.1N 78.7W 1001 40
0000UTC 02.08.2020 36 25.0N 79.9W 1001 42
1200UTC 02.08.2020 48 25.9N 80.8W 1004 30
0000UTC 03.08.2020 60 27.0N 81.3W 1004 30
1200UTC 03.08.2020 72 28.3N 81.7W 1007 30
0000UTC 04.08.2020 84 30.2N 81.1W 1002 40
1200UTC 04.08.2020 96 32.7N 79.9W 989 55
0000UTC 05.08.2020 108 36.5N 78.0W 987 36
1200UTC 05.08.2020 120 40.9N 75.0W 990 48
0000UTC 06.08.2020 132 46.5N 70.3W 990 30
1200UTC 06.08.2020 144 CEASED TRACKING
 
Brent said:
Ukmet much weaker and west goes inland over FL

HURRICANE ISAIAS ANALYSED POSITION : 21.6N 73.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 31.07.2020 0 21.6N 73.9W 1003 46
0000UTC 01.08.2020 12 23.0N 76.7W 1001 46
1200UTC 01.08.2020 24 24.1N 78.7W 1001 40
0000UTC 02.08.2020 36 25.0N 79.9W 1001 42
1200UTC 02.08.2020 48 25.9N 80.8W 1004 30
0000UTC 03.08.2020 60 27.0N 81.3W 1004 30
1200UTC 03.08.2020 72 28.3N 81.7W 1007 30
0000UTC 04.08.2020 84 30.2N 81.1W 1002 40
1200UTC 04.08.2020 96 32.7N 79.9W 989 55
0000UTC 05.08.2020 108 36.5N 78.0W 987 36
1200UTC 05.08.2020 120 40.9N 75.0W 990 48
0000UTC 06.08.2020 132 46.5N 70.3W 990 30
1200UTC 06.08.2020 144 CEASED TRACKING
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Then bombs away....@metwannabe special

Screenshot_20200731-130413_Chrome.jpg
Screenshot_20200731-130423_Chrome.jpg
 
SD said:
Then bombs away....@metwannabe special

View attachment 45600
View attachment 45601
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Can we get a gusta map as well would be interested in seeing how significant power outages could be with this scenario.. with the fast moving nature of the storm the fact that it shows that much rain raises extreme red flags on flash flooding potential somewhere
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Can we get a gusta map as well would be interested in seeing how significant power outages could be with this scenario.. with the fast moving nature of the storm the fact that it shows that much rain raises extreme red flags on flash flooding potential somewhere
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Shaggy said:
I'm a wind junkie rather have wind than the rain.
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70-80
Screenshot_20200731-131557_Chrome.jpg
Screenshot_20200731-131552_Chrome.jpg
 
NoSnowATL said:
Cut that by 75% then divided by 2.
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It's probably over done but verbatim that would be the worst storm to affect this area since Fran. Hard to really jump aboard though with the long track across Fl then the RI along the coast. I think at one time Charley was supposed to do something similar around here
 
Rain Cold said:
Haha 2% chance of this. But I always love those wind maps tho!
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Good chance it's not happening. The thing that is bothering me the most is the fact that the stronger hurricane models stay E of Fl but show solid NC hits. It seems the door is closing on the OTS scenario with our best shot at getting away with low impact from wind is to get it tangled up with FL and aborbed in the trough.
 
HWRF would be breezyhwrf_mslp_wind_09L_26.pnghwrf_mslp_wind_09L_27.png
Hmon isn't quite as strong but would still likely have ts gusts back to near Raleighhmon_mslp_wind_09L_26.png
 
GaWx said:
Looks way overdone with the strength if it tracks like that imo.
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The uk is about 24 hours later than most other models now. Looks like it tried to shift the stronger upper level wind and jet steak north. Shear goes down, outflow channel established, quick intensification
 
SD said:
The uk is about 24 hours later than most other models now. Looks like it tried to shift the stronger upper level wind and jet steak north. Shear goes down, outflow channel established, quick intensification
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Imagine if it stayed offshore and had a clean run at the Carolinas!
 
Shaggy said:
The strength and expansion of the cdo over the last few hours has been intriguing.
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I’m thinking this has to be thanks to the extremely warm waters it’s finally entering .. we’ve seen how this can really blow things up for tropical systems .. I mean The warm waters are what hurricanes get their main source of fuel from
 
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