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Tropical Hurricane Isaias

Cary_Snow95 said:
So we have 6z GEFS west, 6z Euro west, 6z EPS west, 00z cmc west. Start of a long term trend?
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These shifts are 100% due to Isaias's intensity in those models, a weaker storm goes further west into the Florida peninsula and extreme eastern Gulf, a stronger hurricane stays offshore.
 
Webberweather53 said:
These shifts are 100% due to Isaias's intensity in those models, a weaker storm goes further west into the Florida peninsula and extreme eastern Gulf, a stronger hurricane stays offshore.
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Given it’s current appearance I think they have some credibility. What happens tonight into tomorrow morning With intensity will be huge with our impacts.
 
The HRRR has a lopsided system as well missing FL to the east. This will be very similar to Dorian as far as NC is concerned.


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My original opinion was a Gulf track. So I further west track into Florida wouldn’t surprise me at all.


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NAM pops back out over water at 60 and strengthens. Might be getting some help being in the divergent part of the jet stream/trough.
 
SD said:
NAM pops back out over water at 60 and strengthens. Might be getting some help being in the divergent part of the jet stream/trough.
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The SSTs are around 86F in the gulf stream as well. I could see this pulling a Bertha as the shear will be less as he turns NNE.


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BHS1975 said:
The SSTs are around 86F in the gulf stream as well. I could see this pulling a Bertha as the shear will be less as he turns NNE.


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It drop to sub 1000 then weakened 3 hours later lol. Nam has super high pwats moving in my 66 hrs or so. Should be a wet period from that hour through the end of the run.
I'm not sold on this being that strong tbh but anything could happen
 
SD said:
It drop to sub 1000 then weakened 3 hours later lol. Nam has super high pwats moving in my 66 hrs or so. Should be a wet period from that hour through the end of the run.
I'm not sold on this being that strong tbh but anything could happen
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Yeah over 3 inches near the core. You could see over 5 in per hour rates with that.

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BULLETIN
Hurricane Isaias Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...
...SQUALLY WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 74.5W
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SSE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM SE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for portions of the Florida east
coast from north of Deerfield Beach northward to the
Volusia-Brevard County Line.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for portions of the
Florida east coast from north of Ocean Reef northward to Sebastian
Inlet and for Lake Okeechobee.

The government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued the
Tropical Storm Warning for the Dominican Republic.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas including Andros Island, New Providence,
Eleuthera, Abacos Islands, Berry Islands, Grand Bahamas Island, and
Bimini
* Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to the Volusia-Brevard County Line

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* North of Ocean Reef northward to Sebastian Inlet
* Lake Okeechobee

Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or
warnings may be required later today.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
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Hurricane Watch up for portions of Florida's east coast.
 
This could still go into Florida, and hook hard right and miss SDs house and bring little to no rain?
 
Gonna be a long weekend of watching this one evolve. Funny how all the ensemble members that got it strong were further east yet now they have it at 90mph and it hugs the coast. That ridge is flexing.
 
Icon pretty much hugs the coast and never gets it below 1000mb. Pretty much runs just like the forecast track just a touch closer to the coast
 
If this stays weak I’m going to go to the beach to watch. Was planning on VA Beach Monday , perhaps can beat the storm actually if I go Monday .
 
I think its possible the Shear maps align properly and help get or atleast maintain its cane status and vent the system.
 
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