Decided to make a topic about the ENSO since it could affect our next winter.
This fall, a El Niño may form.
This fall, a El Niño may form.
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A Nino following a weak Niña would be quite promising per history. The only warm one of the last 135+ years following a weak Niña that was warm in the SE US was 1951-2 though even it had a major winter storm for much of the upper SE.
The latest update has the Niño 3.4 down to -0.2 C. The El Niño is not expected to form until later this year.
NWMSGuy
Member
So are we currently in a Neutral state?
Yes.
NWMSGuy
Member
Correct me if I'm wrong but weren't we also in a Neutral state before the 2011 Outbreak?
Daily SOI is down to -6.
The weekly SST anomalies rose rather substantially in all 4 regions, including a rise of 0.5 C in 3.4. That is the largest weekly rise there in 3 years and is encouraging to me because it is an indication that El Niño will likely be here for next winter. If we get El Niño, I'd feel quite good about next winter as I've stated several times based on the history of El Niño following a weak La Niña.
There hasn't been an official Nino following a Nina since 1976-7 per this:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml
Other than the great 2009-10 winter's close call since 08-09 just missed Nina in addition to the 1997-8 super Nino that also just missed following a weak Nina, there have been no close calls.
During that time, there have been 6 of the reverse.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml
Other than the great 2009-10 winter's close call since 08-09 just missed Nina in addition to the 1997-8 super Nino that also just missed following a weak Nina, there have been no close calls.
During that time, there have been 6 of the reverse.
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Storm5
Member
Not sure where this goes but JB is floating this for next winter
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Of course he is already. And of course it is a cool one for the NE.Not sure where this goes but JB is floating this for next winter
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Unfortunately for JB, he has been predicting cool to cold winters in much of the E US most of the time since I started following his winter forecasts in 2001, and he has, as a result, verified poorly in most of the warm winters. I'd love to see him predict an outright warm winter for the bulk of the E US (something I can't recall him doing even once....I mean widespread anomalies of, say, 3+) for a change. However, he has already hinted that that won't occur at least until
after the upcoming ~2020-1 deep solar minimum.
About 4 years ago he predicted that 3 of the subsequent 5 winters would be warm. However, as these winters approached and it was time for his annual forecasts, he backed off this idea for the most part. That's too bad. Obviously, he's going to predict cold for 2017-8.
Despite his cold forecasts often verifying poorly, I may end up agreeing with him for 2017-8 as I still think there's a good chance of a cold winter for the SE US should there actually be a Nino to form later this year.
Edit: To be fair to JB, I've seen very few winter forecasts with widespread warmth from non-pros since 2001 and not all that many from pros although I know the pros at MDA wx as well as at the NWS have gone warm a number of times. MDA would, as a result, have credibility if they were to predict cold.
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pcbjr
Member
Phillip l
Member
Pardon my ignorance but what would be the result of this?
A Nino following a weak Niña would be quite promising per history for a colder than normal winter in the SE US. The only El Nino winter during the last 135+ years following a weak Niña that was warm in the SE US was 1951-2 though even it had a major winter storm for much of the upper SE. There have been ten El Nino winters following weak La Nina winters since the late 1860's per the Webber tables. So, 90% were colder than normal.
Phillip l
Member
Ok, thanks for the reply. I for one would love to have a nice cold winter, perhaps even with snow. Considering how it was this year that would be very welcome.
pcbjr
Member
Saw something yesterday from Ryan M and posted it here with a question. Basically, is this true even if it is a Modoki? Haven't been able to find a whole lot on Modoki Ninas, but what I have found suggests that they are more variable and "susceptible" to other factors than a "true" Nina. But I don't know enough about Modoki -
... hint, hint, Larry ...
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Saw something yesterday from Ryan M and posted it here with a question. Basically, is this true even if it is a Modoki? Haven't been able to find a whole lot on Modoki Ninas, but what I have found suggests that they are more variable and "susceptible" to other factors than a "true" Nina. But I don't know enough about Modoki -
My answer is "yes". (I think you meant Modoki "Nino" not "Nina".) In looking at the 10, I didn't distinguish Modoki from non-Modoki and honestly don't know how to categorize all 10. So, 9 of the 10 of whatever kind of El Nino that followed a weak Nina were colder than normal in the SE US and even included 3 of the 10 coldest on record at KATL. Actually, a Modoki would give it a better chance to be cold as that normally excludes the superstrong ones. The weaker El Ninos have been the coldest in the SE of any ENSO on average. So, the "other factors" tend to be favorable for SE cold during weaker El Nino (whether or not following a weak Nina). Then again, 1951-2 was a weaker Nino that followed a weak Nnia and was warm. So, you never know as those other factors during weak Ninos sometimes still end up being negative for cold!
pcbjr
Member
OOPS
- multi-tasking ....
The Niño 3.4 is down to 0.2 C.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I'm honestly baffled why legitimate meteorologists/researchers still try to give the CFSv2 any credence regarding ENSO. This model has a notorious NINO bias (some of which stems from it's +SSTA bias in the southeastern Pacific), and like most climate models a profound "rebound"/sinusoidal bias, in which integrated ENSO behavior is more regular than reality. Unfortunately, it appears this model is being initialized w/ potentially erroneous CDAS1 data and is already ~0.2-0.3C above Reynolds OISSTv2, but in spite of this its newest forecast (blue) is appreciably less enthusiastic about a +ENSO event later this year. While another El Nino is not dynamically impossible, as suggested by the historical 150+ year modern ENSO and ~60 year QBO record, in the 2nd year immediately following the culmination of a strong-super NINO event, and under WQBO regime in the midst of neutral-negative ENSO, another cold La Nada-weak La Nina event is most likely for 2017-18...
pcbjr
Member
pcbjr
Member
No soup for us?
Yeah, unfortunately, Webber is almost always on top of things and he's just being an objective messenger based on past patterns. Looking at his own tables, I see four prior super-Nino winters (peak in 3.4 of +2+) and all 4 had a weak to moderate Nina two winters later.
However, some good news for those hoping we don't have a repeat is that the sample size is small. Also, and more importantly imo, we're currently and have been for the last month or so in neutral positive territory. All 4 of the previous post super-Nino cases were in anywhere from neutral negative to weak La Nina territory at this point. If we were to add 1972-3, which was just below super-Nino strength, it too was in weak La Nina territory at this point (it went on to weak La Nina the subsequent winter). So, maybe this means the outcome will be different for 2017-8?? Also, the next strongest after 1972-3 was 1902-3. It did have a weak El Nino follow it two winters later in 1904-5. By the way, that was one heck of a SE winter! At this point, it was actually still in neutral negative territory.
I maintain that if we can get El Nino (even a weak one, which I'd prefer over a strong one) for 2017-8, the odds of a cold 2017-8 would be much higher than normal based on 9 of 10 of El Ninos following weak La Ninas being cold. Keep hope alive for El Nino but also stay grounded in reality as ENSO evolves over the next few (very crucial) months.
pcbjr
Member
I don't question or ever doubt Webb (or you) - just making an observation (written between the lines so to say) with some humor tossed in, as it seems we need some about now ...Yeah, unfortunately, Webber is almost always on top of things and he's just being an objective messenger based on past patterns. Looking at his own tables, I see four super-Nino winters (peak in 3.4 of +2+) and all 4 had a weak to moderate Nina two winters later.
However, some good news for those hoping we don't have a repeat is that the sample size is small. Also, and more importantly imo, we're currently and have been for the last month or so in neutral positive territory. All 4 of the previous post super-Nino cases were in anywhere from neutral negative to weak La Nina territory at this point. If we were to add 1972-3, which was just below super-Nino strength, it too was in weak La Nina territory at this point (it went on to weak La Nina the subsequent winter). So, maybe this means the outcome will be different for 2017-8?? Also, the next strongest after 1972-3 was 1902-3. It did have a weak El Nino follow it two winters later in 1904-5. By the way, that was one heck of a SE winter! At this point, it was actually still in neutral negative territory.
I maintain that if we can get El Nino (even a weak one, which I'd prefer over a strong one) for 2017-8, the odds of a cold 2017-8 would be much higher than normal based on 9 of 10 of El Ninos following weak La Ninas being cold. Keep hope alive for El Nino but also stay grounded in reality as ENSO evolves over the next few (very crucial) months.
Nino 3.4 warmer back up 0.3 to +0.5C. This is the warmest 3.4 weekly since the decline of the super-Nino almost a year ago. Nino 4 warmed to its warmest in 9 months. Nino 1+2 warmed back up 0.5 to +1.1 after 4 straight weeks of cooling. Region 2 cooled slightly to +0.6.
To sum it up, maybe soup for us next winter after all?
We'll see. The next three months or so will be crucial.http://iri.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/quick_look_composite_apr17-3.pdf
This is the April 20th update.
See the model plumes on the lower right side. Average forecast peak for 3.4 from dynamic models is +1.1, with the Euro, Australian, and French models right on top of the path of the average as far out as each goes. Only two of the 18 dynamic models clearly show it staying down in the neutral area: Scripps and LDEO. Some others: CMC +1.5; GFDL's +1.6 and +2.1; Korean +0.8; NASA +1.3 to +1.4; CFSv2 +1.0 and still rising; Saudi +1.9.
The soup is being prepared for possible consumption by southeasterners. Rumor has it that if all of the ingredients come together just right that it will be delicious. The most important ingredient to give the best shot at deliciousness is El Nino. The next 2-3 months of simmering will be quite crucial to a potential El Nino. Throw in a nice shot of -AO/-NAO blocking later on into the recipe as it gets close to being ready and the soup would be hard to beat.
This is the April 20th update.
See the model plumes on the lower right side. Average forecast peak for 3.4 from dynamic models is +1.1, with the Euro, Australian, and French models right on top of the path of the average as far out as each goes. Only two of the 18 dynamic models clearly show it staying down in the neutral area: Scripps and LDEO. Some others: CMC +1.5; GFDL's +1.6 and +2.1; Korean +0.8; NASA +1.3 to +1.4; CFSv2 +1.0 and still rising; Saudi +1.9.
The soup is being prepared for possible consumption by southeasterners. Rumor has it that if all of the ingredients come together just right that it will be delicious. The most important ingredient to give the best shot at deliciousness is El Nino. The next 2-3 months of simmering will be quite crucial to a potential El Nino. Throw in a nice shot of -AO/-NAO blocking later on into the recipe as it gets close to being ready and the soup would be hard to beat.
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pcbjr
Member
Soup for you!
pcbjr
Member
Saw this and couldn't resist -- we'll save it for Brick this winter ... LOL
April of 2017's SOI comes in as the most negative since April of 2016, when the super-Nino of 2015-6 was ending. This is consistent with the idea that there is a good chance for El Niño setting in by the fall as the soup continues to simmer:
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/...soidatafiles/MonthlySOIPhase1887-1989Base.txt
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/...soidatafiles/MonthlySOIPhase1887-1989Base.txt
pcbjr
Member
Thanks for the updates!
Latest update has it at 0.5 C.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Btw ICYMI, I recently updated my reanalysis of 19th-21st century ENSO behavior via the "Ensemble Oceanic Nino Index (ENS ONI)" I've been running in near real-time for the past year or so. The biggest changes in this update of the index include the addition of ECMWF's newest reanalysis dataset, (ECMWF's Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Reanalysis of the 20th Century), removal the very high resolution OISSTv2 (1/4th deg) & GHRSST OSTIA (1/20th) due to appreciable cold biases I found in these datasets (relative to others) that can be attributable to their disparate resolutions, as well as detection of an error in all December ONI data (which may have arisen in the previous version from an bug in my code used to calculate the monthly ONI)
In the following text file, I've outlined my methodology and have kept a record of various changes/additions to the ENS ONI over the past year or so & I also provided standardized data, rankings, a "confidence index", raw monthly SST data (rounded to the nearest .01), and Inter-dataset Variance to provide first guess uncertainty estimates. The forthcoming release of Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature Version 5 (ERSSTv5), NOAA's 20th Century Reanalysis Version 3 (NOAA 20CRv3), and Hadley Centre Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature Version 2 (HADISST2) within the next several months-year or so will warrant yet another reanalysis of the ENS ONI w/ more improved ONI estimates through the mid-19th century in addition to possible extension of the ENS ONI to 1860.
http://weatheradvance.com/home/weat...c-NINO-Index-ENS-ONI-Raw-Data-1865-522017.txt
When I get a chance here in the next week or two, I will also update and release an ensemble Southern Oscillation Index (ENS SOI) that I've been working on for the past several months.
Here are the updated ONI tables color coded according to the Trenberth (1997) definition, which differs slightly from the one used at the CPC. It's worth mentioning that Trenberth is one of the most distinguished ENSO scientists to date, the father of the NINO 3.4/ONI index, and that he designates ENSO events when the NINO 3.4 region sea surface temperature anomalies are greater than +/- ~ 0.4C for 6 successive tri-monthly periods...
In the following text file, I've outlined my methodology and have kept a record of various changes/additions to the ENS ONI over the past year or so & I also provided standardized data, rankings, a "confidence index", raw monthly SST data (rounded to the nearest .01), and Inter-dataset Variance to provide first guess uncertainty estimates. The forthcoming release of Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature Version 5 (ERSSTv5), NOAA's 20th Century Reanalysis Version 3 (NOAA 20CRv3), and Hadley Centre Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature Version 2 (HADISST2) within the next several months-year or so will warrant yet another reanalysis of the ENS ONI w/ more improved ONI estimates through the mid-19th century in addition to possible extension of the ENS ONI to 1860.
http://weatheradvance.com/home/weat...c-NINO-Index-ENS-ONI-Raw-Data-1865-522017.txt
When I get a chance here in the next week or two, I will also update and release an ensemble Southern Oscillation Index (ENS SOI) that I've been working on for the past several months.
Here are the updated ONI tables color coded according to the Trenberth (1997) definition, which differs slightly from the one used at the CPC. It's worth mentioning that Trenberth is one of the most distinguished ENSO scientists to date, the father of the NINO 3.4/ONI index, and that he designates ENSO events when the NINO 3.4 region sea surface temperature anomalies are greater than +/- ~ 0.4C for 6 successive tri-monthly periods...
pcbjr
Member
...and glad you're back here as well!!!!!
and BTW - where the heck else can one get such info!
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The daily SOI has, indeed, gotten more negative the last couple of days. It should start heading back up around midweek although the next two days will likely remain solidly negative. An impressive 22 of the last 30 days have been negative. The 30 day average has dropped to -8 while the 90 day is almost down to -4.
The weekly for 3.4 issued today was at +0.5 C for the 3rd week in a row. Region 4 stayed at +0.3. Region 3 dropped slightly to +0.5. Region 1+2 dropped to +0.8.
The weekly for 3.4 issued today was at +0.5 C for the 3rd week in a row. Region 4 stayed at +0.3. Region 3 dropped slightly to +0.5. Region 1+2 dropped to +0.8.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
A downwelling oceanic Kelvin Wave is becoming evident ~150W in the sub surface ocean temperature anomaly plots over the Equatorial Pacific. While westerly wind anomalies currently prevail over the central Pacific atm, these are liable to be replaced by an easterly trade wind burst over the coming few weeks (or longer) as the MJO heads into the eastern hemisphere and attempts to momentarily re-invigorate the Walker Circulation.
Easterly stratospheric wind anomalies have finally propagated down to about 20 hpa, signaling a potential forthcoming reversal of the QBO for the first time in two years. However, due to the easterly QBO's relationship w/ the Thermal Wind & Brewer-Dobson Circulation, the easterly anomalies may slow their forward progress over the coming months as the tropical stratosphere upwells, but this should bolster any oncoming El Nino by decreasing the static stability of the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere and providing more favorable upper level shear for near-equatorial convection.
Easterly stratospheric wind anomalies have finally propagated down to about 20 hpa, signaling a potential forthcoming reversal of the QBO for the first time in two years. However, due to the easterly QBO's relationship w/ the Thermal Wind & Brewer-Dobson Circulation, the easterly anomalies may slow their forward progress over the coming months as the tropical stratosphere upwells, but this should bolster any oncoming El Nino by decreasing the static stability of the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere and providing more favorable upper level shear for near-equatorial convection.
The weekly for 3.4 issued today was at +0.5 C for the 4th week in a row. The other 3 regions warmed either 0.1 or 0.2.
The SOI has risen into positive territory the last 3 days and should remain mostly positive for the next week or so. However, a sharp drop into negative territory is hinted at by the middle of next week based on a progged large drop in SLP at and all around Tahiti. Let's see if this actually looks to verify as this is a crucial time of year for ENSO.
The SOI has risen into positive territory the last 3 days and should remain mostly positive for the next week or so. However, a sharp drop into negative territory is hinted at by the middle of next week based on a progged large drop in SLP at and all around Tahiti. Let's see if this actually looks to verify as this is a crucial time of year for ENSO.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I've created a new Extended MEI (MEI.ext) time series using the 10 ensemble members from ECMWF's 20th Century Reanalysis Model (ERA-20CM) and experimented with several PC weighting adjustments I plan to implement in the Ensemble Extended MEI (ENS-MEI.ext). I also provided rankings and a time series w/ the original MEI.ext definition without any PC weighting (although 30-year sliding base periods and the EOF region remained the same as the new definition. Any comments, questions, feedback, etc. would be greatly appreciated!
http://weatheradvance.com/home/weat...ploads/2017/05/ERA-20CM-MEI-1900-Nov-2010.txt
ERA-20CM Member 7 December 1982 Tropical Pacific SLPa
http://weatheradvance.com/home/weat...ploads/2017/05/ERA-20CM-MEI-1900-Nov-2010.txt
ERA-20CM Member 7 December 1982 Tropical Pacific SLPa