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Tropical TS Bertha

Going to need a tornado watch soon. Given how wet it has been over the Carolinas, wouldn’t it be something if it maintained strength somewhat overland? NAM looks strong inland.
 
The severe threat here is what I am interested in watching. We're under a level 1 threat now, so not really expecting much besides rain.
 
Geez, FLO to CLT to INT going to get raked. Almost the same areas that got drenched last week.



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Rain Cold said:
We will be lucky to get a stray shower here. 24 hours ago, it looked like a lock for a couple of inches here. Our weather models are awesome.
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Yeah, that's how we roll. The heavier QPF will be just to our west from FAY/SAN towards CLT. But, I think we get some off an on showers today with potentially more tomorrow. I still think we see 0.5"-1" of rain over the next few days.
 
KyloG said:
Yeah, that's how we roll. The heavier QPF will be just to our west from FAY/SAN towards CLT. But, I think we get some off an on showers today with potentially more tomorrow. I still think we see 0.5"-1" of rain over the next few days.
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Hopefully. The 12z models are less than impressive.
 
Rain Cold said:
We will be lucky to get a stray shower here. 24 hours ago, it looked like a lock for a couple of inches here. Our weather models are awesome.
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What's funny is Berth misses us to our west...but models have this heavier tailing band of precip moving through after Bertha and that misses us to our east overnight tonight and tomorrow.

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Breaking News: Moderate Risk issued for Wilkes County northward. Despite the NAM being -------- past few day’s with sprinkles.
 
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Lots of unknown. NWS pleaded for WPC to issue Moderate Risk then WPC places the Moderate Risk where they have no Flood Watches out?? 8949F007-5579-4A68-A058-C5FA47AB5C1C.jpeg
 
Rain Cold said:
You can kind of look at the radar and tell that is going to be wrong.
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I am interested in that convective tail that comes out of the circulation and extends south into the ocean. If we get that training from south to north totals could rocket up, conversely if we don't get a lot of banding today and convection not tied to the main blob around the center we struggle to .25
 
SD said:
I am interested in that convective tail that comes out of the circulation and extends south into the ocean. If we get that training from south to north totals could rocket up, conversely if we don't get a lot of banding today and convection not tied to the main blob around the center we struggle to .25
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If it’s anything like what’s happening in Florida now after the storm passed there..their radar looks juicy now with widespread storms.
 
SD said:
I am interested in that convective tail that comes out of the circulation and extends south into the ocean. If we get that training from south to north totals could rocket up, conversely if we don't get a lot of banding today and convection not tied to the main blob around the center we struggle to .25
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Hopefully, that will build in and not set up just east. Kylo said it before, but many of the models set us up for the old 7-10 split. Radar has filled in pretty well to the south, so who knows.
 
Local guys and media are completely ignoring the “Moderate Risk”. 4F06A9DD-2F2B-41CE-8727-5241F428F751.png
 
Whole lot of nothing here in Mt Pleasant this morning. I'm near Rifle Range Rd and IOP connector. Heck, had no idea this was a TS until it passed and someone on a work call asked if I was ok, and I laughed and said why? Literally just found out about half an hour ago. We picked up 1.22" of rain in my weather station. Just a heavy rain for about an hour or so, completely normal. No wind to speak of. We got over 2" in a single storm last week!
 
I could see some PDS Flash Flood emergencies being issued later today for Virginia. That area can’t handle what’s coming on radar..with some isolated flooding back down to Winston-Salem/Mount Airy corridor.
 
SCWXGuy said:
Whole lot of nothing here in Mt Pleasant this morning. I'm near Rifle Range Rd and IOP connector. Heck, had no idea this was a TS until it passed and someone on a work call asked if I was ok, and I laughed and said why? Literally just found out about half an hour ago. We picked up 1.22" of rain in my weather station. Just a heavy rain for about an hour or so, completely normal. No wind to speak of. We got over 2" in a single storm last week!
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I live off rifle range, was a big surprise.
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
Not too far from me man. Summerton is 3 min away over 2 inches here.
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Oh cool. Yeah I’ve been doing some out of town work between Sumter and Manning. Water standing everywhere. Ditches running over. It was already wet before Bertha. Water has nowhere to go now.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
I could see some PDS Flash Flood emergencies being issued later today for Virginia. That area can’t handle what’s coming on radar..with some isolated flooding back down to Winston-Salem/Mount Airy corridor.
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This could be serious for areas just along the HWY 74 corridor just east of Charlotte as well. It’s looking like the heaviest areas of rain might actually pivot over those areas as opposed to moving straight through. Much of eastern Union and Western Anson counties have already had 12”+ the last 10 days and I can personally confirm, the ground is saturated and creeks and streams are full.
 
Chazwin said:
This could be serious for areas just along the HWY 74 corridor just east of Charlotte as well. It’s looking like the heaviest areas of rain might actually pivot over those areas as opposed to moving straight through. Much of eastern Union and Western Anson counties have already had 12”+ the last 10 days and I can personally confirm, the ground is saturated and creeks and streams are full.
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Yeah, I have over 8 inches here in the western part of the county. But I think this storm is moving fast enough to avoid any serious issues. There will be flooding, but nothing like we saw with Florence.
 
Flash Flood Watch expanded west to Ashe and Wilkes County for up to 5” of rain.
 
3km went nuts at 18z for the trailing band. Trend past few runs.


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