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5/18/20 - 5/23/20 Upper Low Flooding & Severe Threat

I think Ima wait out until the 12z but this nearly confirms I’m chasing today 4B13C1B5-5B5A-4479-9520-C89166026A5D.png4030FBE0-B6A1-4337-85FB-90BD26102042.png569D8B98-E050-4C06-9FF4-157784B2FC90.png
 
Had heavy rain at times overnight but the sun is shining some this morning after a solid 4-5 days of solid clouds/rain/drizzle its nice to see....
 
Another 1.25" bringing my total for the last 4 days to 8.74" WOW!

For my area, the MCS looks to die over the mountains before inflicting anything severe...at least I hope.

Yeah north both HRRRs keep it more around CLT into the SC where the best instability is (1000-2000 jkg of SBcape) but anyways wind and a mushy ground is not a good mix for trees
 
Interested to see what the 12z models show, didn't expect this thing to be rolling along this morning.
It will go just south of us and die as it moves into the area. Don't worry.
 
Philpott Lake (near Martinsville, VA) has water flowing over their emergency spillway for the first time ever. The lake was constructed in 1953.

 
Between 4:30am and 5am, had pretty loud cracks of thunder and a brief heavy downpour this morning from the tiniest of t'storms. It practically had me jump out of my bed from what was a deep sleep.
 
It will go just south of us and die as it moves into the area. Don't worry.
Probably. We really need to get these clouds out.

12z HRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR has us as ground zero for a bowing segment but it backed down from previous runs on instability.
 
Didnt realize the clouds back west were not breaking . Here in Zebulon they have been broken up for a while and temps are in the low 70s.
 
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