Hmmm tornado warning pointed right at the house.
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5/18/20 - 5/23/20 Upper Low Flooding & Severe Threat
- Thread starter Webberweather53
- Start date
Yikes 
Jessy89
Member
18z hrrrr this is at 21z so 4pm or so. Look at the Tornado perimeters especially for upstate sc. as a line of storms is trying to move in. Tomorrow could be a severe day.
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Yay another severe wx to watch near midnight and after. This time around tho, ground is soaked, so would imagine widespread poweroutages with even the non/severe storms.
That area west of Fay is going to drop a lot of rain as it moves north
BufordWX
Member
Tomorrow looks like it could be interesting. Even in North Georgia I see some potential for a severe storm or two.
Steven_1974
Member
Looks like the forecast has changed for tomorrow night now with a 50% chance of storms.
mbway091
Member
I feel like the HRRR has been a broken record with these the past few events.
Like literally broken, it never pans out like this.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Just cloudy and damp here. I will be very happy to see the sun again.
I mean a few weeks back it was terrible with that boundary event and showed a MCS that ended up being a train of supercells and more of a N/S moving MCS vs a W/E moving MCS, but tomorrow really favors some type of complex given the energy diving in on the base of the decaying upper level low during peak heating, ofc there’s always a question if clouds or storms to our south spoil Θe advection, like what the nam shows, but the v4/hrrr generally agreed on instability
mbway091
Member
We also won't have the cold air up here limiting the northward extend of the threat, right? So maybe it will turn out to be more accurate this time.
It’s very possible (some CAMS hinting at it) that we get low clouds that stick around) that’s exactly why I’m driving south for this setup
Shaggy
Member
The models had me picking up between 3 to 5 inches tonight and now its bone dry out there. They're gonna have busted badly at this rate.
norcarolinian
Member
Between 8” and 9” since Monday now and it’s pouring again.
western surry county back east to greensboro getting more rain this evening. better stop soon or else
Nomanslandva
Member
Same here. We are one persistent heavy shower away from major issues.
I can personally verify that this gave me another 2.8 inches in about an hour and 15 minutes to put me at 9.9”, then another batch seemed to pop right over us about 6:40 and gave me another .2” in about 15 minutes. So now since Monday at 6pm we’re at 10.1”.
SWB
Member
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Just had some thunder and lightning here.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Tornado forming on this feed in KS.
Pretty much all CAMs support the idea of a MCS/cluster of storms, those wind profiles today are quite supportive of a MCS, add 1000-1500 jkg of SBcape into that and there you go
Gorilla hail anyone 
I think Ima wait out until the 12z but this nearly confirms I’m chasing today 
These thermodynamics on saturday ?
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
8.3” total since Monday night.
Downeastnc
Member
Had heavy rain at times overnight but the sun is shining some this morning after a solid 4-5 days of solid clouds/rain/drizzle its nice to see....
Mmmmmm 
That MCS already looks solid, it’s verifying stronger than what the hrrr is initializing with 
Another 1.25" bringing my total for the last 4 days to 8.74" WOW!
For my area, the MCS looks to die over the mountains before inflicting anything severe...at least I hope.
For my area, the MCS looks to die over the mountains before inflicting anything severe...at least I hope.
Yeah north both HRRRs keep it more around CLT into the SC where the best instability is (1000-2000 jkg of SBcape) but anyways wind and a mushy ground is not a good mix for trees
Interested to see what the 12z models show, didn't expect this thing to be rolling along this morning.
Bannerdude
Member
Philpott Lake (near Martinsville, VA) has water flowing over their emergency spillway for the first time ever. The lake was constructed in 1953.
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Between 4:30am and 5am, had pretty loud cracks of thunder and a brief heavy downpour this morning from the tiniest of t'storms. It practically had me jump out of my bed from what was a deep sleep.
Powder keg.
Probably. We really need to get these clouds out.
12z HRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR has us as ground zero for a bowing segment but it backed down from previous runs on instability.
LickWx
Member
Didnt realize the clouds back west were not breaking . Here in Zebulon they have been broken up for a while and temps are in the low 70s.
Cadi40
Member
There’s not a cloud in the sky here in Charlotte, it’s a gorgeous day!