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May be?

Could see 3 max areas of rain...1 Northern Virginia Blue Ridge, 2) Brushy Mountains near southern Wilkes County 3) OBX
 
NAM has interesting soundings on Monday, hodos are small but are actually solid 8F05E364-9387-4EE0-887A-55FF20BAFEC9.png4181EDF2-C698-4289-B92E-02DC900EE621.pngE3727AE5-5613-4A28-9CAE-2ECE53A30EF5.png0F147E66-5E4E-4866-957A-5C3BD59A31B4.png
 
Unless it isn't able to dig well south this is going to have big rain totals for NC. Still slowing and a little bit south on tne Euro9dd3838c-caab-4733-b495-acdb89353554.gif
 
Through day 5....upper low is still centered near BNA. Good griefView attachment 41518

This synoptic setup kinda reminds me a little of that really bad flooding in October 2015 Columbia had w/ an upper low that pivoted over them & Joaquin stayed off shore except cooler SSTs >>> less moist static energy, but still.
 
This synoptic setup kinda reminds me a little of that really bad flooding in October 2015 Columbia had w/ an upper low that pivoted over them & Joaquin stayed off shore except cooler SSTs >>> less moist static energy, but still.
Euro really tries to set up that SE to NW fire hose a couple of times.
 
Warm, moist conveyor belt of a slow-moving upper low coupled w/ very persistent differential cyclonic vorticity advection and cold air damming is an ideal setup for exceptionally persistent, moderate-heavy rain & coarse gridded NWP models often underestimate its true extent & intensity. The added effect of orographic lift means the western & northwestern piedmont are probably in for a complete deluge if this synoptic pattern holds, widespread flash flooding is becoming an increasingly legitimate possibility.

Very curious to see what the individual members in this EPS run look like, I'd imagine we're gonna see some pretty absurd solutions.



gfs_upperforcing_us_17.png


ecmwf_mslpaNorm_eus_5.png
 
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