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Severe Severe Threat April 5th-7th

Not liking that SPC map. Maybe with any blessings it won't go high, but it's looking very doubtful at this point.
 
that last sentence is concerning...
...OH/TN Valleys...
The northward advance of low-level moisture will be more limited
across the OH/TN Valleys Wednesday, but will still be more than
sufficient to support surface-based convection. A band of supercells
appear likely per latest model guidance given the strength of low
and mid-level winds coupled with weak to locally moderate
instability. Large to very large hail and damaging winds appear to
be the main threats, with a few tornadoes also possible. Given the
forecast coverage of convection, it is not out of the question that
higher severe probabilities may need to be considered in a later
outlook update.
 
Yep, moderate risk has come west, now it matches what BMX posted this morning on their graphic.

AL_swody2.png
 
jaymackd3 said:
Do you think this could continue pulling NW through tonight?
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Possibly , some of the guidance has the best parameters pulling even further to the west . Regardless of outlines and pretty colors the threat is real even in the slight area
 
Sglynx1 said:
SPC VERY ambitious with their latest SWO.
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This was particularly concerning:

Forecast soundings across this region suggest strong
tornadoes will be possible with any discrete storm that can form in
this environment, in addition to very large hail and damaging
straight-line winds.
 
I am right on the line, so close that my front yard may be enhanced and backyard moderate haha.
 
RollTide18 said:
This was particularly concerning:

Forecast soundings across this region suggest strong
tornadoes will be possible with any discrete storm that can form in
this environment, in addition to very large hail and damaging
straight-line winds.
Click to expand...
Yeah very strong wording considering the last Storm systems that seemed to have every supercell going spinney it seemed was that one that shall go unnamed... I'm not saying this is a repeat in any way but this is a very concerning setup
 
Parker said:
I am right on the line, so close that my front yard may be enhanced and backyard moderate haha.
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Me too. I'm right at the intersect of the beginning of 459 and 20/59.

I honestly do not see this as much of a threat at all for areas west of Birmingham. The cutoff appears very sharp and CAPE looks to significantly decline west of Jefferson county. Furthermore, SRH and STP also precipitously decline. From a line from about Demopolis over to Anniston and Gadsden looks to be the greatest concern. North and west of that could end up being out of the favorable SC environment entirely.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I have a feeling that this could end up being worse than 4/27/11 in GA.
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I can understand the logic based on the Impacts of that storm in GA compared to LA,MS, & AL where it really blew up... that system still had alot of storm damage across GA but at least modeled currently tomorrows storm is that East AL thru half of GA is ground zero
 
malak05 said:
I can understand the logic based on the Impacts of that storm in GA compared to LA,MS, & AL where it really blew up... that system still had alot of storm damage across GA but at least modeled currently tomorrows storm is that East AL thru half of GA is ground zero
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I wonder what the odds of Carrollton being hit by a tornado 2 times in the same week ?
 
I think a lot of people in GA just don't take severe weather seriously, definitely not as seriously as people in AL and MS. We are so used to storms dying out before they get here so we just always assume that will be the case with every storm system.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I think a lot of people in GA just don't take severe weather seriously, definitely not as seriously as people in AL and MS. We are so used to storms dying out before they get here so we just always assume that will be the case with every storm system.
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Take it from someone whose family is from SW GA (Thomasville/Moultrie/Albany - down there it is taken very seriously ... tends to sneak in from 'Bama ... ;)
 
pcbjr said:
Take it from someone whose family is from SW GA (Thomasville/Moultrie/Albany - down there it is taken very seriously ... tends to sneak in from 'Bama ... ;)
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I guess I should say people in Metro Atlanta don't tend to take severe weather seriously.
 
This is what James Spann said: This is spring in Alabama; we have severe weather threats. It is normal, and we are good at being prepared and ready.
So I guess what he is saying is that this is just your run of the mill spring severe weather and there's nothing out of the ordinary about this threat.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I think a lot of people in GA just don't take severe weather seriously, definitely not as seriously as people in AL and MS. We are so used to storms dying out before they get here so we just always assume that will be the case with every storm system.
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Newbie here. Finally joined just because this upcoming system is so concerning. I work in downtown Atlanta and can definitely agree that many don't take severe weather seriously. I just posted on Facebook with the hopes that my friends/family will consider changing their attitude toward severe weather.

Thanks to everyone in this forum for the info (I'm learning a lot) and I hope that you all stay safe, especially within the next 24-36 hours.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
This is what James Spann said: This is spring in Alabama; we have severe weather threats. It is normal, and we are good at being prepared and ready.
So I guess what he is saying is that this is just your run of the mill spring severe weather and there's nothing out of the ordinary about this threat.
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I agree, whether you're in the slight risk area or high risk area, you need to be prepared and have a plan. Locate your nearest tornado shelter and a way to contact loved ones. After 4/27/2011, we had no cell service for a few days, so make a plan with loved ones to meet at a common place if available or some how to let them know you are ok.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
This is what James Spann said: This is spring in Alabama; we have severe weather threats. It is normal, and we are good at being prepared and ready.
So I guess what he is saying is that this is just your run of the mill spring severe weather and there's nothing out of the ordinary about this threat.
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Sounds like more then of a Mission statement or something Severe Weather is normal for the SE in Spring but some threats are more strong then others and require alot more attention
 
SoutheastRidge said:
This is what James Spann said: This is spring in Alabama; we have severe weather threats. It is normal, and we are good at being prepared and ready.
So I guess what he is saying is that this is just your run of the mill spring severe weather and there's nothing out of the ordinary about this threat.
Click to expand...
For west AL he's right. For east AL, it looks to be quite the threat.

There's also several mitigating factors still in play, so the entire thing may bust.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I think a lot of people in GA just don't take severe weather seriously, definitely not as seriously as people in AL and MS. We are so used to storms dying out before they get here so we just always assume that will be the case with every storm system.
Click to expand...

I completely agree with that. My wife happens to be one of them! I try and explain these situations to her but she generally just gets upset and says I'm "overreacting" I finally bust out the maps and show her that I'm not.

I truly hope that those in Georgia don't make that mistake tomorrow.
 
Hopefully Monday's lil remainder will help have the Georgians a little more eye to the sky then other times... We had reportedly 20 Tornadoes confirmed from NWS if I read Channel 2 news update earlier that's something that should've got alot of peoples attention
 
Phillip l said:
I completely agree with that. My wife happens to be one of them! I try and explain these situations to her but she generally just gets upset and says I'm "overreacting" I finally bust out the maps and show her that I'm not.

I truly hope that those in Georgia don't make that mistake tomorrow.
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I think people in general dont take severe weather seriously until it actually impacts you personally.
 
The reason why people in GA doesn't take severe weather seriously is because they think that storms will weaken when it enters Georgia.
 
Also, a good idea is to go ahead and fuel up your vehicles today. We luckily filled up the day before 4/27/2011 and had enough fuel to travel to another family members home with power. We had multiple transmission lines down and if there's no power, there's no gas. There were people all along the roads out of fuel.
 
There has been events in the past when storms move into Georgia, it weakens. People need to know that storms can be unpredictable.
 
Sglynx1 said:
For west AL he's right. For east AL, it looks to be quite the threat.

There's also several mitigating factors still in play, so the entire thing may bust.
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I hope the whole thing is a bust. If I don't mind asking, what are some of those factors that could inhibit the threat?
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I think people in general dont take severe weather seriously until it actually impacts you personally.
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Perhaps you are right I was in 5th grade when my family barn was basically imploded upon itself in a Tornado high F-2 Tornado as it passed about 80 yards from our house. It destroyed my friends house throw them from it and they all survived but suffered severe injuries
 
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