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Severe Severe Weather Threat April 2-3

Webberweather53

Webberweather53

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This storm early next week definitely looks like it could be the real deal over the southern MS valley and portions of the southeastern US and I wouldn't be shocked to see the SPC break out the crayons for this storm as early as tomorrow... Fairly remarkable consistency across most guidance that a strong ULL will eject from the southern Rockies late this weekend, and intensify as it attempts to phase w/ another s/w currently over the Gulf of Alaska. Synoptically, this certainly has the potential to bring the most significant bout severe weather to the southern tier considering that this ULL is liable to be the strongest in the series of ULLs we've observed in the past week or so, closer to the moisture source over the GOM, and may phase w/ the northern stream (evident here in the northern Rockies) as it lifts towards the OH Valley....

Post away!

ecmwf_z500a_us_7.png
 
No doubt that even though it is a little ways out, it is still stronger than the next system.The Gulf Coast states and Georgia should begin to watch this closely as we get closer.
 
So what is the GFS doing at hour 126? Looks like two different area's of low pressure. Is that common?
 
Damn
gfs_ir_seus_23.png
 
Refresh my memory. What does above graphic reflect??

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As it appears to me with latest GFS run, I am out of the Severe weather arena with this storm considering position of Low track.
 
Euro and gfs differ with track . Euro takes the low through eastern Arkansas

Gfs takes it through southern Mississippi into central Alabama . Big differences. Euro suggests a severe threat , gfs suggests heavy rain event


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Decided to stop in and see what everyone thought about Monday because I just saw RAH post on Facebook that some of the model solutions look scary, but confidence is low right now. Have to keep an eye on this one.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Decided to stop in and see what everyone thought about Monday because I just saw RAH post on Facebook that some of the model solutions look scary, but confidence is low right now. Have to keep an eye on this one.
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Yep this one has a lot of potential but we will see
 
Well yesterday pretty much sums up as a pretty good bust so who knows what this system will actually bring
 
NWMSGuy said:
Are there currently subtle differences between the GFS & EURO regarding this system?
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They are pretty similar. The Euro is slightly stronger and farther NW with the sfc low. It looks like they might be handing the potential gulf coast convection differently.
 
SPC going w/ an expansive day 2 MDT across the northwestern Gulf coast. This probably won't bust like the TN valley D2 MDT this past week given favorable large-scale forcing and the trough's amplitude and proximity to the GOM. While upscale growth will be a concern wrt tornadoes, and this trough will shear out considerably as it gets further east, the wind threat is liable to remain relatively high as this nears the MS valley...
day2otlk_0600.gif
 
The Weather Channel has a torcon of 6 for SE Texas/Western LA tomorrow and a torcon of 5 for Southern GA/North FL for Monday. They also mentioned that those numbers might still be raised as the day goes on. This looks to be a big one
 
Webberweather53 said:
May need another thread for mid-late next week, Euro is going ballistic w/ 4000-5000 j/kg CAPE over SE MS
View attachment 504
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Fire it up your having good luck . Yeah that one keeps trending more and more towards a nice event . Gfs isn't as aggressive as the euro but it's no doubt a period to watch

Edit : 12z gfs
432b1f64d9178679f4a3454c682ac016.jpg



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Last edited:
ForsythSnow said:
Not looking good at all.
stp.us_se.png

I also haven't seen an effective layer STP sounding so high in Georgia. This one is over Cobb county.
nam4km_2017040112_057_34.03--84.42.png
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Gonna have to watch and see , as shane pointed out forcing looks like it's gonna push everything linear which would help keep things from getting out of hand


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