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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade

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I haven't looked at the models all day but this says it all to me... All those times the GEFS had snow this winter when everything else lost it but this will verify because lol

I've got one more chance at snow when I go to NYC next month but I'm not holding my breath on that one lol since winter has sucked there too

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There are some elements of the setup later this week that kind of remind me of this totally badass event in Feb 1948 which was an overrunning event that popped a late coastal and delivered a huge hit to the northern coastal plain of NC. If we played our cards perfectly, just maybe...


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Just slide that about 50 miles west and we good!
 
There are some elements of the setup later this week that kind of remind me of this totally badass event in Feb 1948 which was an overrunning event that popped a late coastal and delivered a huge hit to the northern coastal plain of NC. If we played our cards perfectly, just maybe...


View attachment 34860
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There are some elements of the setup later this week that kind of remind me of this totally badass event in Feb 1948 which was an overrunning event that popped a late coastal and delivered a huge hit to the northern coastal plain of NC. If we played our cards perfectly, just maybe...


View attachment 34860

Since I live in Elizabeth City, I can hope for this to happen. I do believe that I would give up one of my asymmetrical hangers for that to occur this week.
 
There are some elements of the setup later this week that kind of remind me of this totally badass event in Feb 1948 which was an overrunning event that popped a late coastal and delivered a huge hit to the northern coastal plain of NC. If we played our cards perfectly, just maybe...


View attachment 34860

Now @metwannabe, @Downeastnc, and @tramadoc , and others (no offense if I missed you) will have to get in weenie mode!
 
There are some elements of the setup later this week that kind of remind me of this totally badass event in Feb 1948 which was an overrunning event that popped a late coastal and delivered a huge hit to the northern coastal plain of NC. If we played our cards perfectly, just maybe...


View attachment 34860
Don't do this to me..... lol
 
I’m not there quite yet, but by Wednesday 00Z and 12Z I might be in full blown weenie mode.
Yeah I'm with you, I used the term cautiously optimistic earlier and that's pretty much where I'm at but a couple of more model runs in our favor might just do the trick
 
Yeah I'm with you, I used the term cautiously optimistic earlier and that's pretty much where I'm at but a couple of more model runs in our favor might just do the trick
It's hard to get excited with most of the Globals still showing very little if anything. Not saying they are correct of course but it helps to temper expectations.
 
It's hard to get excited with most of the Globals still showing very little if anything. Not saying they are correct of course but it helps to temper expectations.

I agree there. Hope and the NAM is all we got at this point for the southern piedmont of NC.
 
I know it may be a taboo thing to do but I like to pinpoint unfavorable locations vs favorable locations that many can use nearby in storm events. My unfavorable spots would be Morganton, Lenoir, Shelby and Mount Airy. My favorable would be Rocky Mount and Roanoke Rapids.

Well I'm doomed
 
It doesn't even have to snow...I just want to get NAM'd one time in the next couple of days.
You will. You can always count on one good Namming. My guess is that will show up in the 36-48 hr window.
 
Nothing says winter sucks like a good 35° rain storm.
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The Nam tends to run amped in the LR. You could put a level on those height lines it's showing. ?

I don't even think the NAM is going to save this one. The one time we need more precip this winter is the time we're probably not going to get it.
 
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